MCX Copper June is expected to rise towards Rs1345 level as long as it stays above Rs1325 level - ICICI Direct
Metal’s Outlook
Bullion Outlook
• Spot Gold is likely to hold the support near $4270 level and rise towards $4370 level amid expectation of further correction in dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Further, prices may rise as Iran and Israel agreed to ceasefire, easing tension over wider conflict in Middle East and energy driven inflationary risk. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped as robust economic data from US signaled resilience in economy, giving room for US Fed to hold the interest rates at higher level for longer duration. Previously softening labor market was seen as constraint on rate hikes, even if inflation continued to run above Fed’s target but the recent job data has shifted the image and chances of rate hike is going higher. Furthermore, investors will remain cautious ahead of CPI and PPI data from US to get more clarity on interest rate trajectory. MCX Gold Aug is expected to rise towards Rs156,000-Rs 157,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 152,500 level
• MCX Silver July is expected to slip towards Rs 242,000-Rs 241,000 level as long as it stays below Rs 251,000 level
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias on soft dollar and improved global market sentiments. Further, prices may move higher on persistent decline in inventory at LME registered warehouses and renewed concerns about US import tariffs. Investors are looking ahead to a U.S. decision at the end of June on import tariffs on the metal. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped on concerns that Middle East conflict would hamper demand growth. Additionally, Yangshan copper premium fell to a 5-week low of $64 per ton, signaling softer import demand in China
• MCX Copper June is expected to rise towards Rs1345 level as long as it stays above Rs1325 level. A break above Rs1345 level prices may be pushed towards Rs1353-Rs1360 level
• MCX Aluminum June is expected to slip towards Rs380-Rs377 level as long as its stays below Rs389 level. MCX Zinc June is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs369 level and slip towards Rs360-Rs358 level.
Energy Outlook
• NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias on growing optimism over peace deal between US and Iran. Further, prices may fall as Iran and Israel agreed to halt attacks against each other, enhancing hopes that peace negotiations could move forward and Strait of Hormuz may be re-opened soon. Meanwhile, sharp fall in prices may be cushioned on fears that Yemen’s Houthis announcement to completely ban Israeli shipping increases risk around one of the key alternative route for Saudi Arabian oil making its way into market. While, OPEC+ said they will increase oil output by 188,000 bpd in July, marking 4 th consecutive month. However, this higher volume will remain largely on paper until war ends and oil supplies through strait of Hormuz resumes
• MCX Crude oil June is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs9100 level and slip towards Rs 8500-Rs 8400 level
• MCX Natural gas June is expected to slip towards Rs 295-Rs 290 level as long as it stays below Rs 310 level.
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