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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot gold is likely to hold its ground above $3980 and move higher toward $4120, aided by a softer dollar and easing rate-hike bets. Following recent cooler inflation data, rate-hike probabilities dropped to just 11% for July and below 50% for September. This suggests that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain current policy. Meanwhile, gains may be limited by ongoing ETF outflows. Additionally, crude oil prices have recently spiked due to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, keeping underlying inflation concerns alive. Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor key U.S. retail sales figures and speeches from Fed officials to gauge the central bank's next policy moves.

• MCX Gold Aug is expected to hold above Rs 140,000 level and rise towards Rs 143,500 level. Only a move above Rs 143,500, it would turn bullish towards Rs 145,500.

• MCX Silver September is expected to slip towards Rs 217,000 as long as it trades under Rs 225,000. A move below Rs 217,000, it would slip towards Rs 214,000

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to hold recent gains, driven by structurally tight mine supplies and depleting LME stockpiles. Declining treatment and refining charges indicate a severe shortage of raw materials, providing a solid price floor. Furthermore, supply headwinds in South America and accelerated stockpiling ahead of potential U.S. Section 232 tariffs are tightening physical market conditions. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker-than-expected growth in China likely to cap major upward movements.

• MCX Copper July is expected to hold above Rs 1300 - Rs 1305 and rise towards Rs 1320 level.

• MCX Aluminum July is expected to move higher towards Rs 345 - Rs 346, as long as it stays above Rs 339. MCX Zinc July is likely to hold above Rs 373 and rise towards Rs 378 - Rs 380 level. Only a move below Rs 373, it would clip towards Rs 368 - Rs 370 zone.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX crude is likely to hold above $78 and move toward $81.50 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Following U.S. naval blockade of Tehran’s maritime routes through the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump has warned of additional military action. Reports suggest the White House is contemplating an escalation of operations, which includes discussions on seizing Kharg Island—the keystone of Iran's oil export infrastructure.

• On the data front, fresh OI addition seen across ATM and OTM Put strikes, with highest OI concentration at $75 and $78 strike, which would likely to act as major support. On the other hand, call unwinding was also observed. Immediate call base exist at $80. Any sign of further unwinding would push prices towards the next major call base at $85. MCX Crude oil July is likely to move towards Rs 7800 - Rs 7900 as long as it holds above Rs 7400.

• MCX Natural gas July is expected to hold above Rs 272 - Rs 274 level and rise towards Rs 285 level.

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