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Gold 

Gold prices slipped 0.29% to settle at 141,850, as investors balanced easing U.S. inflation data against rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Softer-than-expected U.S. producer prices and weaker consumer inflation reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. However, concerns over inflation remained elevated due to higher crude oil prices following U.S. strikes on Iran, the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets continue to price in nearly a 49% probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank's commitment to containing inflation. Major financial institutions turned more cautious on gold's medium-term outlook. ANZ lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,600 per ounce and its 12-month target to $5,400, warning that sustained expectations of tighter monetary policy could push prices toward $3,500 before finding support around $3,800-$4,000. HSBC also reduced its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish monetary policy expectations. Meanwhile, COMEX gold speculative net long positions declined by 1,964 contracts to 114,854, reflecting softer bullish sentiment. Physical demand remained mixed, with Indian dealers offering discounts of up to $19 per ounce amid volatile prices, while China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to a twentieth consecutive month, adding nearly 15 metric tonnes in June. London vault holdings also edged 0.21% higher to 9,392 tonnes. Technically, gold remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 4.31% alongside falling prices. Immediate support is placed at 140,920, followed by 139,990, while resistance is seen at 142,600 and 143,350. Sustained movement beyond these levels is likely to determine the market's near-term direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 139990-143350.

*  Gold dropped as escalating tensions in the Middle East kept inflation and interest rate concerns at the forefront of investors' minds.

*  US producer prices unexpectedly declined in June for the first time in nearly a year.

*  ANZ cuts year-end gold price forecast to $4,600/oz and 12-month forecast to $5,400/oz

Silver

Silver prices declined 1.15% to settle at 220,620 as investors shifted toward riskier assets after softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data reduced demand for safe-haven investments. The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index showed headline inflation fell 0.4% in June, marking its first monthly decline since the pandemic, while core inflation eased to 2.6%, below market expectations. The data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may leave interest rates unchanged at its July meeting. However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller cautioned that policymakers could still raise rates if inflation remains persistently above the 2% target. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data indicates the probability of a September rate hike has increased to around 78%, reflecting continued uncertainty over the U.S. monetary policy outlook. Fundamental developments remained mixed for silver. ANZ expects silver to continue tracking gold prices in the near term but believes its supply-demand fundamentals will gradually become more supportive over the medium to long term. London vault holdings increased 0.6% at the end of May to 27,611 tonnes, highlighting stable institutional inventories. In contrast, India's silver imports plunged sharply after tighter government restrictions. Imports fell 87% year-on-year in value to $75.57 million during May, while volumes declined 94% to just 33 metric tonnes, the lowest level since February 2023. The government has also increased import duties on gold and silver to 15% from 6% to curb precious metal imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 3.94% while prices declined, indicating the emergence of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 217,925, followed by 215,235, while resistance is seen at 223,445 and 226,275. A decisive breakout beyond these levels will determine the next directional move.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 215235-226275.

* Silver prices edged lower as investors shifted towards riskier assets following softer US inflation data.

* US CPI report showed headline inflation fell 0.4% in June, marking its first monthly decline since the pandemic.

* Fed’s Waller warned that the central bank may need to raise rates "in the near term" if inflation remains above the 2% target.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices rose 0.38% to settle at 7,613 as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified concerns over global oil supplies. Fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian military assets and the reinstatement of a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports near the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of potential disruptions to one of the world's most critical energy shipping routes. President Donald Trump also pledged to continue military operations until Iran halts attacks on commercial shipping and reopens the Strait, reinforcing the risk premium in oil prices. Supply-side fundamentals remained mixed despite the geopolitical support. U.S. crude oil inventories declined by 1.693 million barrels during the week ended July 10, reversing the previous week's increase, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.533 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 4.556 million barrels. Net U.S. crude imports also declined for the first time in four weeks. Meanwhile, Strategic Petroleum Reserve holdings dropped by nearly 3 million barrels to 316.5 million barrels, the lowest level since 1983, with total U.S. crude inventories falling to their lowest since 1984. OPEC revised down its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 barrels per day for the third consecutive month, although it raised its outlook for 2027 demand. OPEC+ also confirmed another production quota increase of 188,000 barrels per day from August, though actual output remains constrained by ongoing regional disruptions. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 9.16% while prices advanced, indicating the unwinding of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at 7,503, followed by 7,392, while resistance is seen at 7,761 and 7,908. A sustained move beyond these levels is expected to determine the market's next directional trend.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7392-7908.

* Crude oil rose as escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to fuel supply concerns.

* President Trump pledged to intensify military operations until Iran halts attacks on vessels in the Strait.

* Goldman Sachs said Brent could exceed $110 in the fourth quarter

Natural gas

Natural gas prices gained 1.29% to settle at 282.7, supported by short covering after recent declines, although the broader fundamental outlook remained influenced by rising domestic production and weaker LNG export demand. Maintenance work at Freeport LNG's export facility in Texas continued to restrict gas flows for liquefaction, increasing supplies available for the domestic market. The facility is expected to remain under maintenance until late August, limiting export demand despite continued geopolitical disruptions affecting LNG shipments through the Persian Gulf. Supply conditions remained comfortable as average natural gas production in the Lower 48 states increased to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day in July from 110.0 bcfd in June. At the same time, near-record solar and wind power generation continued to reduce natural gas consumption for electricity generation. Storage data also reflected ample supply, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration reporting a larger-than-expected storage injection of 61 billion cubic feet for the week ended July 3, exceeding both market expectations of 49 bcf and the five-year average of 51 bcf. Total working gas in storage reached 2.983 trillion cubic feet, standing 0.5% below last year's level but 6.6% above the five-year average. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and demand to reach record highs over the next two years, while LNG exports are projected to rise steadily from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027. Technically, natural gas is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 5.06% while prices moved higher, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at 278.6, followed by 274.6, while resistance is seen at 285.2 and 287.8. A sustained move beyond these levels will likely determine the market's next short-term direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 274.6-287.8.

* Natural gas gained on short covering after process dropped on rising output and lower flows to LNG export plants.

* Scheduled maintenance outages in Freeport LNG's export facility in Texas prevented gas flows from being ready for export.

* Average gas production increased to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in July from 110.0 in the previous month.

Copper

Copper prices ended marginally lower by 0.01% at 1,311.75 as investors balanced weak macroeconomic signals from China against softer U.S. inflation data. China's economic growth slowed to a three-and-a-half-year low, missing market expectations as weak domestic demand continued to weigh on industrial activity and metals consumption. The disappointing growth outlook added pressure to copper prices despite improving sentiment surrounding the U.S. interest rate outlook following lower-than-expected inflation figures. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed picture for the copper market. Combined inventories across LME, COMEX, and SHFE climbed to 1.145 million tonnes at the end of May, up 54% from the end of 2025 and the highest level since January 2003, reflecting comfortable global supply. China's refined copper production increased 2.2% year-on-year to 1.26 million tonnes in May, while cumulative copper imports during January-May declined 7%, highlighting softer domestic demand. However, supply-side concerns continued to emerge as copper inventories in LME warehouses fell more than 20% since the end of May, with a significant portion of remaining stocks already earmarked for delivery. Chile also reported sharp production declines at major mines, including Codelco, Escondida, and Collahuasi. Meanwhile, the International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper deficit of 145,000 tonnes in April as consumption exceeded production, although the market remained in surplus during the first four months of the year. Technically, copper remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 0.96% alongside a marginal price fall, indicating liquidation of existing bullish positions. Immediate support is placed at 1,305.4, followed by 1,298.9, while resistance is seen at 1,318.1 and 1,324.3. A decisive move beyond these levels is expected to determine the market's next short-term trend.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1298.9-1324.3.

* Copper dropped as investors weighed gloomy Chinese macroeconomic conditions with lower U.S. consumer inflation data.

* The LME cash-to-3-month spread widened into a deeper contango, with cash trading discounted below the 3-month price by over $40–$50/t.

* Combined LME, COMEX, and SHFE copper inventories reached 1,144,966 tonnes at the end of May 2026, up 54% from the end of 2025.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined 0.70% to settle at 374.15 as disappointing economic data from China weighed on sentiment, although concerns over tightening supply and ongoing geopolitical tensions helped limit losses. China's GDP growth slowed to a three-and-a-half-year low, reflecting weak domestic demand and raising concerns over industrial metals consumption. At the same time, escalating conflict in the Middle East kept inflationary pressures and interest rate expectations elevated, creating additional uncertainty for the demand outlook. However, resilient manufacturing data from China, Europe, and the United States provided some underlying support to prices. Market fundamentals remained mixed. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May to 640,000 metric tonnes, while inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 0.6%, indicating adequate near-term availability. Nevertheless, supply disruptions continued to support the market. Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating at reduced capacity following an explosion, Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru continues recovering after fire-related disruptions, and concerns persist over lower output from Boliden's Garpenberg mine following earlier seismic activity. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 26,500 tonnes in April from 56,300 tonnes in March, although the cumulative surplus during the first four months of the year remained higher than the same period last year. Goldman Sachs expects a small global zinc surplus this year but anticipates tighter market conditions beyond 2026 as mine supply growth slows and demand continues expanding. Technically, zinc remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 6.92% alongside lower prices, indicating liquidation of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at 371.9, followed by 369.6, while resistance is seen at 378.0 and 381.8. A sustained move beyond these levels is likely to determine the market's next short-term direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 369.6-381.8.

* Zinc edged lower after disappointing economic data in China, but supply concerns and the Middle East conflict helped limit losses.

* GDP growth in China cooled to a 3.5-year low, missing forecasts on weak domestic demand, official data showed.

* Glencore’s Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan is operating at reduced capacity, while Nexa’s Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru was temporarily suspended.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices declined 0.63% to settle at 341.5 as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improving supply prospects weighed on market sentiment. Pressure increased after Emirates Global Aluminium announced the restart of its Al Taweelah alumina refinery following a three-and-a-half-month outage. The refinery is expected to reach 50% of capacity within days and has the technical capability to restore full production by the end of the year, improving global alumina availability. Nevertheless, losses remained limited by tight visible inventories and resilient physical demand. Market fundamentals presented a balanced outlook. Visible aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses remained at their lowest level since 2022, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 4.8% over the past week, highlighting continued tightness in exchange-monitored supplies. Japanese buyers agreed to pay a premium of $395 per metric tonne for July-September shipments, up 13% from the previous quarter, reflecting firm regional demand. Meanwhile, the International Aluminium Institute reported global primary aluminium production fell 1.7% year-on-year in May to 6.15 million tonnes. China continued to strengthen its export presence, with unwrought aluminium and product exports reaching a record 711,000 tonnes in June and rising 16.3% during the first half of 2026. Morgan Stanley expects the global aluminium deficit to narrow in 2026 before the market shifts into surplus from 2027 as supply growth accelerates. Technically, aluminium remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 0.94% alongside lower prices, indicating the liquidation of existing bullish positions. Immediate support is placed at 339.7, followed by 338.0, while resistance is seen at 344.1 and 346.8. A sustained move above resistance could improve short-term momentum, while a break below support may trigger additional selling pressure.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 338-346.8.

* Aluminium dropped as EGA said it had restarted its alumina refinery in the United Arab Emirates after a 3-1/2-month outage.

* Pressure also seen driven by an easing of Middle East tensions and optimism over returning supplies.

* EGA said its Al Taweelah refinery's output of alumina was expected to ramp up to 50% of capacity "within days"

Turmeric 

Turmeric prices slipped 0.32% to settle at 20,640 as traders booked profits after recent gains driven by lower arrivals and firm spot market supplies. Arrivals declined sharply to around 8,500 bags from 18,000 bags in the previous session, mainly due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. Demand continued to receive support from steady export enquiries and limited physical availability. However, improving monsoon conditions across key producing regions have slightly eased concerns over the upcoming crop, encouraging some profit-taking after the recent rally. Fundamental factors remain balanced despite the recent correction. Good rainfall over major turmeric-growing areas is expected to accelerate Kharif sowing, with higher prices encouraging farmers to expand acreage. Nevertheless, the pace of sowing will continue to depend on rainfall distribution and the potential influence of El Niño. While overall supplies remain structurally tight because of lower production and reduced carry-forward stocks, increased selling by farmers during the harvest period has temporarily improved market availability. Carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly below last season's 20 lakh bags, continuing to provide medium-term support. Export demand also remained encouraging, with India's turmeric exports rising marginally by 0.6% year-on-year to 15,039 tonnes in April 2026. Strong demand from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset weaker shipments to the UAE and the United States, while Nizamabad spot prices gained 7.9% to 18,590.15. Technically, turmeric remains under long liquidation as open interest declined 0.81% alongside lower prices, indicating liquidation of existing bullish positions. Immediate support is placed at 19,980, followed by 19,320, while resistance is seen at 21,350 and 22,060. A decisive breakout beyond these levels is likely to determine the market's next short-term direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19320-22060.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices gained due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, down sharply from 18,000 bags in the previous session.

* Good rainfall has been reported over the past five to six days, which is expected to accelerate sowing activities.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 18590.15 Rupees gained by 7.9 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined 0.48% to settle at 20,830 as increased farmer selling ahead of the Kharif sowing season weighed on market sentiment. Farmers continued to liquidate stocks to generate cash, while favorable weather in north-west India accelerated harvesting, drying, and market arrivals. The steady build-up in NCDEX warehouse stocks also reduced the urgency for spot procurement by traders. However, losses remained limited as the availability of premium-quality bold seeds continued to tighten, supporting demand for export-grade supplies. Market fundamentals remained mixed. Daily arrivals in major markets such as Unjha and Rajasthan have started to decline, while outbreaks of blight disease in parts of Gujarat have affected both crop quality and availability. Production estimates for the current season remain lower than last year, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared with 1.10 crore bags previously. Export demand remained uneven as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East disrupted logistics and buying activity, while expected Chinese purchases remained slower and more price-sensitive than anticipated. At the same time, European and North American buyers continued to source residue-compliant, high-quality lots. India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year to 16,254 tonnes in April 2026 due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE, although strong demand from Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the decline. Unjha spot prices also eased by 0.31% to 20,519.05. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh selling pressure as open interest increased 5.94% while prices declined, indicating the formation of new short positions. Immediate support is placed at 20,680, followed by 20,520, while resistance is seen at 21,090 and 21,340. A decisive move beyond these levels is expected to determine the market's next short-term direction.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20520-21340.

* Jeera dropped as farmers are aggressively liquidating Jeera stocks to generate immediate cash flow for the Kharif sowing season.

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* However downside seen limited amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20519.05 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

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