Zinc trading range for the day is 320.3-324.9 - Kedia Advisory
Gold
Gold prices declined 1.72% to settle at Rs1,55,736, as a stronger U.S. dollar and fading expectations for near-term interest rate cuts weighed on the metal’s traditional safe-haven appeal. The drop also coincided with a sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which reduced investor interest in non-yielding assets like gold. However, the market found some stability after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that Iranian tankers are being allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate concerns over supply disruptions and helping crude prices retreat toward $95 per barrel. Despite the pullback, geopolitical tensions continue to provide an underlying layer of support as the U.S.–Israeli conflict with Iran enters its third week. Investors are also closely watching reports about a potential multinational coalition aimed at securing shipping routes, as any signs of de-escalation could reduce the risk premium in gold. In the physical market, regional demand trends remain mixed. Gold discounts in India widened to as much as $83 per ounce, the deepest level in nearly a decade, reflecting weak demand and high import duties. In contrast, strong buying in China pushed local premiums to $20–$30 per ounce, significantly higher than the previous week. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.15% to 7,856 lots while prices dropped Rs2,730. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,54,595, with a break below this level potentially testing Rs1,53,460. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs1,57,195, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,58,660.
Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 153460-158660.
* Gold eased amid a strengthening US dollar and fading expectations for interest rate cuts.
* The persistent safe-haven appeal of gold remains as the US-Israeli war with Iran enters its third week.
* Gold discounts in India widened to their deepest point in nearly a decade as demand stayed subdued.
Silver
Silver prices slipped 1.12% to settle at Rs2,56,532, pressured by rising energy prices that have increased inflation concerns and reduced expectations of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks. The metal also lost some of its safe-haven appeal after reports that the United States could lead a multinational coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing tensions around one of the world’s most critical energy routes. U.S. President Donald Trump has urged allied nations including the UK, France, China, and Japan to assist in securing the passage, while European Union foreign ministers are also discussing a possible naval response. Economic data from the United States offered additional pressure on precious metals. Manufacturing output rose 0.2% month-on-month in February 2026, exceeding market expectations of 0.1%, after a 0.8% increase in January. Similarly, industrial production increased 0.2%, also above forecasts. The stronger data reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious monetary policy stance when it meets this week. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level since 2015, highlighting tightening physical supplies. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 0.8% to 5,842 lots while prices declined Rs2,903. Immediate support is seen at Rs2,49,000, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs2,41,470. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs2,61,920, with a move above this level potentially testing Rs2,67,310.
Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 241470-267310.
* Silver dropped as rising energy prices fuel inflation, lowering expectations of Fed rate cuts.
* Safe-haven demand eases on reports that the US may announce a coalition to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
* Manufacturing output in the US rose 0.2% month-over-month in February 2026, more than market expectations.
Crude oil
Crude oil prices declined 3.67% to settle at Rs8,720, as markets reacted to the latest developments surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and concerns about supply disruptions. The situation escalated after U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to halt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump called for a multinational effort to secure the waterway, adding to the uncertainty in energy markets. Production across the Gulf region has been significantly affected. The United Arab Emirates has seen its oil output drop by more than half as ADNOC implemented widespread production shut-ins due to the ongoing conflict and shipping disruptions. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has reduced output by about 2 million barrels per day, bringing production down to around 8 million bpd, compared with more than 10 million bpd in February. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Gulf producers including Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have collectively cut output by at least 10 million bpd, with the risk of further losses if shipping routes remain restricted. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 20.85% to 11,327 lots while prices dropped Rs332. Immediate support is seen at Rs8,425, and a break below this level could push prices toward Rs8,129. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs9,179, with a move above this level potentially testing Rs9,637.
Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8129-9637.
* Crude oil prices fell amid attacks on Gulf oil production and President Trump's call for global efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
* Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has cut oil production by some 2 million barrels per day to around 8 million bpd.
* UAE daily oil output is down by more than half as the Iran conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz
Natural gas
Natural gas prices fell sharply 4.42% to settle at Rs279, pressured by a gradual rise in production and forecasts for weaker demand over the next couple of weeks. Market sentiment remained soft as expectations of milder weather reduced heating demand, while supply continued to edge higher. According to the U.S. EIA, marketed natural gas production in the United States reached a record 118.5 bcfd in 2025. Much of this growth came from key producing regions such as Appalachia, the Permian Basin, and the Haynesville, which together accounted for about 81% of the total increase in output. In the near term, supply also remains firm, with average production in the U.S. Lower 48 states rising to around 110.0 bcfd so far in March, compared with 109.2 bcfd in February, according to LSEG data. Demand expectations, however, have softened. LSEG projects total gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, to decline from 123.6 bcfd this week to 115.8 bcfd next week. LNG exports have also cooled slightly, with flows to the nine major U.S. export facilities averaging 18.4 bcfd in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 4.46% to 20,130 lots while prices declined Rs12.9. Immediate support is seen at Rs273.9, with a break below this level potentially testing Rs268.7. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs287.9, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs296.7.
Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 268.7-296.7.
* Natural gas eased amid a slow rise in output and forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks.
* Natural gas production marketed in the U.S. reached a record high of 118.5 bcfd on average in 2025 - EIA
* The EIA said the rise was driven by a 60% increase in Henry Hub spot prices to $3.52 MMBtu.
Copper
Copper prices slipped 0.51% to settle at Rs1,181.35, as a stronger U.S. dollar and persistent inflation concerns weighed on sentiment. Elevated oil prices have added to inflationary pressures, reducing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates anytime soon. With the Fed widely expected to keep policy tight in the near term, metals markets have faced some short-term pressure. Despite the dip, the broader outlook for copper remains constructive. Analysts at Citi noted that while the long-term outlook remains bullish, near-term demand could receive support from post-Lunar New Year restocking in China, particularly from the power grid sector. China’s consumer inflation also accelerated to its highest level in more than three years, partly due to seasonal holiday demand. Prices, however, faced pressure from elevated inventories on the London Metal Exchange, though stronger-than-expected private factory data from China helped limit the downside. Major financial institutions remain optimistic about copper’s longer-term prospects. Goldman Sachs expects prices to reach $12,200 per ton by the end of 2026, while UBS forecasts copper could climb to $15,000 per ton within 13 months, supported by rising global consumption and a widening supply deficit.. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.61% to 14,554 lots while prices fell Rs6.05. Immediate support is seen at Rs1,172.9, with a break below this level potentially testing Rs1,164.3. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs1,187.2, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs1,192.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 1164.3-1192.9.
* Copper fell as elevated oil prices fuelled inflation concerns, supporting the U.S. dollar.
* Prices came under pressure due to high London Metal Exchange inventories.
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 2.0 % from last Friday, the exchange said.
Zinc
Zinc prices edged lower 0.48% to settle at Rs322.9, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and concerns that surging oil prices could fuel inflation and slow global economic growth. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has increased risk aversion in financial markets, pushing the dollar index above the 100 mark and weighing on base metals. However, stronger economic indicators from China helped cushion the downside. China’s industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year in January–February, while fixed asset investment increased 1.8%, signaling steady activity in the world’s largest metals consumer. Inventory movements also influenced market sentiment. Zinc stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 9.2% from the previous week, adding some pressure on prices. At the same time, concerns about tight supply continue to provide underlying support, particularly following earlier mine closures and production disruptions. China has set its 2026 economic growth target at 4.5%–5%, slightly lower than last year’s pace, while policymakers signaled they may use tools such as RRR cuts and interest rate adjustments to support growth. Global supply dynamics remain mixed. According to the ILZSG, the zinc market posted a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 9.31% to 2,592 lots while prices declined Rs1.55. Immediate support is seen at Rs321.6, with a break below this level potentially testing Rs320.3. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs323.9, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs324.9.
Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 320.3-324.9.
* Zinc dropped as surging oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East fuelled fears about inflation and global growth prospects.
* Stronger economic data from China helped support sentiment.
* China's industrial output rose 6.3% year-on-year in January-February and fixed asset investment rose 1.8%.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices slipped 1.07% to settle at Rs342.4, as higher production from China weighed on sentiment despite ongoing supply disruptions in several regions. Data showed that China’s primary aluminium output rose 3% year-on-year during the first two months of 2026, reaching 7.53 million tons, supported by improved smelter profitability. The increase from the world’s largest producer added some pressure to global prices. At the same time, supply risks in other regions continue to shape the market outlook. Aluminium Bahrain announced it would shut down about 19% of its capacity after declaring force majeure due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In India, Hindalco Industries temporarily halted production of one aluminium product because of supply disruptions from Middle Eastern gas suppliers. Meanwhile, South32 placed its Mozal smelter in Mozambique on care and maintenance after failing to secure adequate and affordable power. Inventory trends remain mixed. LME aluminium stocks fell to 445,300 tons, their lowest level since July, and the cash-to-three-month spread remained in a $29 per ton backwardation, indicating tight nearby supply. In contrast, Shanghai aluminium inventories rose 5.6% to 416,425 tons, their highest level since April 2020. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 8.42% to 2,708 lots while prices fell Rs3.7. Immediate support is seen at Rs338.7, with a break below this level potentially testing Rs335. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs347.8, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs353.2.
Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 335-353.2.
* Aluminium dropped as China aluminium production up 3.0 % to 7.53 mln metric tons in Jan – Feb.
* Aluminium Bahrain said that it was shutting down 19% of its capacity to sustain business continuity.
* Australia's South 32 said that it had placed its Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique on care and maintenance.
Turmeric
Turmeric prices edged 0.23% higher to settle at Rs14,790, supported by tight arrivals and steady demand in both domestic and export markets. Supplies in the physical market remain limited as farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced their holdings significantly, providing a firm base for prices ahead of the new crop arrivals. Production in key states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka has also been affected by untimely rains, which has further tightened short-term availability. At the national level, dried turmeric output is estimated at around 90 lakh bags, up from 82.5 lakh bags last season. However, lower carry-forward stocks have limited the overall increase in supply. In Maharashtra, despite 15–20% yield losses in some regions due to waterlogging and disease, higher acreage is expected to push dried production to 54 lakh bags, compared with 47.5 lakh bags last year. Other producing states including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, and West Bengal are projected to collectively produce around 40 lakh bags, up from 35 lakh bags last season. Demand conditions remain supportive, particularly in export markets such as Europe and the United States. Turmeric exports during April–December 2025 rose 3.99% to 142,386 tonnes, while imports declined sharply by 41.54%, indicating stronger domestic consumption. However, upside may remain limited in the near term as fresh arrivals in Erode are expected to increase over the next 10–15 days, and acreage for the upcoming crop is estimated to be 4% higher year-on-year. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.79% to 17,205 lots while prices gained Rs34. Immediate support is seen at Rs14,578, with a break below this level potentially testing Rs14,364. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs14,982, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs15,172.
Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14364-15172.
* Turmeric gained as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.
* It is reported that both farmers and stockists have significantly reduced their stocks, providing a base for the market.
* Yields in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have been affected due to rains.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15209.7 Rupees gained by 0.73 percent.
Jeera
Jeera prices declined 1.45% to settle at Rs21,820, weighed down by the arrival of the new crop in some markets. Supplies are expected to increase further as arrivals gather pace through March, adding short-term pressure on prices. Comfortable availability and subdued export demand have also contributed to the softer tone, with traders noting that much of the current export business is being fulfilled from existing stocks. However, downside in prices remains somewhat limited due to expectations of lower overall production this season. Total cumin output in India is projected to fall by about 5% to around 5.13 lakh tonnes. In Gujarat, production is estimated to decline sharply by 27% to 1.83 lakh tonnes, mainly due to an 18% drop in acreage and an 11% fall in yields. In contrast, Rajasthan’s output is expected to rise 15% to 3.29 lakh tonnes, supported by a slight increase in area and improved yields. Weather irregularities, reduced sowing, and disease risks such as blight and aphid infestation in Rajasthan remain key concerns for the crop. Export demand has remained relatively weak. Jeera exports during April–December 2025 fell 12.08% to 145,137 tonnes, compared with 165,084 tonnes during the same period a year earlier. In the spot market at Unjha, prices closed at Rs21,702.75, down 0.7%. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 8.56% to 5,442 lots while prices dropped Rs320. Immediate support is seen at Rs21,660, with a break below this level potentially testing Rs21,490. On the upside, resistance is likely near Rs22,060, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs22,290.
Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 21490-22290.
* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.
* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.
* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21702.75 Rupees dropped by -0.7 percent.
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