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Gold

Gold futures closed 1.22% higher at 97,251, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and renewed safe-haven interest amid persistent uncertainties over global trade deals and US fiscal policy. The dollar’s retreat was driven by growing market anxiety over the expanding US government deficit as a massive tax-cutting and spending bill crawls through the Senate, raising fears of increased borrowing needs. On the monetary policy front, sentiment remains firmly anchored by expectations that the Federal Reserve may deliver rate cuts later this year, with investors closely eyeing this week’s US labor data — particularly Thursday’s non-farm payrolls report — for fresh cues on the Fed’s next move. Meanwhile, physical demand signals present a mixed picture: China’s gold imports via Hong Kong dipped by 1.5% month-on-month in May, yet premiums in China and Singapore rose slightly, pointing to steady local appetite. Indian buyers, however, continue to hold back, hoping for deeper price corrections, and local dealers are still forced to offer discounts up to $18 per ounce. On the supply-demand balance, the World Gold Council reported global demand rose 1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 to 1,206 metric tons, mainly due to surging investment flows into ETFs and bars, even as jewellery consumption slumped 21% to pandemic-era lows. Technically, gold remains on a bullish footing with fresh buying interest reflected by a 2.06% gain in open interest, signaling sustained confidence in further upside. Immediate support is pegged at 96,600, with stronger support at 95,945 if selling resumes. On the upside, resistance is seen at 97,780, and a break above could propel prices toward 98,305 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 95945-98305.

* Gold prices climbed, supported by a weaker US dollar and ongoing trade deal uncertainty.

* The dollar retreated on worries over the ballooning US deficit and as a major tax-cutting and spending bill slowly advances in the Senate

* HSBC has raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,215 per ounce from $3,015 an ounce previously.

Silver

Silver futures closed 0.4% higher at 106,713, supported by a weaker US dollar and revived optimism for deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. A softer greenback generally lifts silver’s appeal for overseas buyers, helping sustain upward momentum in the precious metal despite mixed signals from the broader economy. Investors remain focused on upcoming US labor market data, which could reinforce the case for the Fed to ease policy as early as July, especially amid lingering fiscal worries tied to President Trump’s massive tax-cut and spending package, projected to expand the national debt by $3.3 trillion if passed. On the macro front, fresh US data gave mixed cues: job openings jumped sharply to 7.769 million in May — the highest since November — while the ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed in contraction territory at 49, reflecting ongoing challenges in the industrial sector. Meanwhile, the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9, its strongest in over three years, pointing to resilience in factory output despite broader macro uncertainties. From a fundamentals perspective, the outlook for silver remains structurally strong. The Silver Institute projects the market will post a supply deficit for the fifth straight year in 2025, driven by robust industrial fabrication — forecast to rise 3% to a new record high as demand for green economy technologies grows. Technically, the market is showing fresh buying interest, with open interest up 2.89%, reinforcing the bullish tone. Support for silver lies at 105,945, with deeper support at 105,175 if selling pressure resumes. Immediate resistance is seen at 107,690, and a break higher could push prices toward 108,665 in the sessions ahead.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 105175-108665.

* Silver prices rose, lifted by a weaker US dollar as traders bet on deeper Fed rate cuts.

* On the trade front, attention stays on the expiry of Trump’s 90-day tariff pause next week, keeping trade tensions alive.

* US job openings rose sharply by 374,000 to 7.769 million in May, hitting the highest since November 2024, above expectations.

Crude oil

Crude oil futures closed 0.61% higher at 5,615 as traders weighed expectations of another OPEC+ output hike against mixed global supply-demand dynamics. The anticipated increase — an additional 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August — would mark the fourth consecutive month of production quota hikes, pushing total output additions for 2025 to 1.78 million bpd, equivalent to over 1.5% of global demand. This move is partly viewed as a disciplinary step for overproducing members and partly as Saudi Arabia’s strategic attempt to defend market share amid stiff competition from resilient US shale producers. Meanwhile, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the ongoing Israel-Iran ceasefire, have helped cap oil’s risk premium, providing a calmer backdrop for prices. On the supply side, US crude oil production reached a record 13.47 million bpd in April, edging up slightly from March, highlighting the robust pace at which American shale output continues to expand. Despite the supply growth, demand fundamentals remain supportive. The latest EIA report showed a 5.836 million barrel drop in US crude inventories for the week ending June 20, far exceeding expectations, with gasoline and distillate stocks also recording notable declines. Technically, the market is under short covering, as seen in the 8.86% drop in open interest, signalling profit-booking by bears. Immediate support for crude oil is placed at 5,545, with deeper downside potential to 5,474 if selling resumes. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 5,670, and a breakout could push prices higher toward 5,724 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5474-5724.

* Crude oil steadied as investors assessed expectations that OPEC+ will announce an output hike for August.

* The group is expected to raise production quotas by 411,000 bpd in August, continuing increases seen in May, June, and July.

* U.S. crude oil production hit a record 13.47 mbpd in April, up from 13.45 mbpd in March.

Natural gas

Natural gas futures closed 1.73% lower at 290, extending recent weakness as traders reacted to expectations of higher production and milder weather forecasts that could limit both cooling and heating demand. The milder conditions have supported stronger-than-average storage injections, with US utilities adding 96 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending June 20 — well above market expectations of 88 bcf and significantly higher than both last year’s 59 bcf and the five-year average build of 79 bcf. On the supply side, average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 105.9 bcfd in June, up from 105.2 bcfd in May, although still shy of the March record of 106.3 bcfd. The increase reflects the return of capacity following spring maintenance. Meanwhile, LNG export demand softened, with flows to the eight major US export terminals dipping to 14.3 bcfd in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and well below the April record of 16.0 bcfd. Adding to the global supply picture, Canada shipped its first-ever LNG export cargo from the Pacific Coast to Asia, marking a milestone that could eventually reshape North American gas trade dynamics. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest climbing 8.62% to 26,121 lots, highlighting renewed short positions. Immediate support is pegged at 282.6, and a break below could push prices toward 275.1. On the upside, resistance sits at 297.6, with a move above potentially testing 305.1 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 275.1-305.1.

* Natural gas fell weighed down by expectations of rising production and milder weather.

* Milder temperatures reduced heating and cooling demand, allowing stronger-than-normal storage injections to continue.

*  US production rose to 105.9 bcfd in June, up from May but still below March’s record.

Copper

Copper futures settled 0.41% higher at 898.3 as tight supply dynamics across major exchanges combined with a weaker dollar to keep prices buoyant. Inventories on the London Metal Exchange (LME) continued to decline, falling to 91,275 metric tons, their lowest level in nearly two years. Likewise, stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) dropped sharply by 19.11% to 81,550 metric tons, marking a one-month low and signalling firm physical demand and supply constraints. The backwardation in the LME futures curve highlights just how tight near-term supply has become — the cash-to-three-month premium narrowed to $250 per ton from $320, which was its highest since November 2021. Aggressive moves by traders to shift copper out of LME warehouses have driven on-warrant inventory down by 80% this year, reflecting both speculative positioning and concerns about future tariffs.  On the macro front, a softer dollar — helped by easing geopolitical tensions and the possibility of more Chinese stimulus and Federal Reserve rate cuts — has lifted the outlook for global manufacturing and base metal demand. According to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), the refined copper market swung into a 50,000 metric ton deficit in April, reversing a surplus in March, underscoring that tightening supply fundamentals are gaining traction even as year-to-date figures still show an overall surplus. Technically, copper is showing fresh buying momentum with open interest up by 1.72% at 8,093 lots while prices gained 3.7. Key support is seen at 893, and a drop below could open the door towards 887.6. Resistance is likely at 904, with a move above this level potentially pushing prices up to 909.6 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 887.6-909.6.

* Copper rose as tight supply in key exchanges magnified the impact that a weak dollar.

* LME inventories fell, dropping to 91,275 metric tons—the lowest level in nearly two years

* Commerzbank sees 2025 year – end copper price forecast at $9,500/ton

Zinc

Zinc futures settled 0.91% lower at 256, weighed down by a fresh rise in domestic inventories and lingering concerns about sluggish galvanization demand, especially in China. Deliverable stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rose by 800 tonnes in the last week of June, signaling softer physical demand as manufacturers restricted purchases to near-term needs. The increase in SHFE stocks — up 1.8% from the previous week — coincided with China’s official PMI remaining below the 50-mark, highlighting continued contraction in the manufacturing sector and limiting downstream consumption for zinc used in galvanizing steel. Meanwhile, despite the near-term weakness, some underlying supply-side constraints are lending limited downside support. Mined output from Teck Resources’ Red Dog Mine, the world’s largest zinc mine, dropped 20% YoY to 145,300 tonnes in Q1 as the mine nears depletion. Additionally, Australia’s Nyrstar smelter announced it will cut 2025 output by 25% due to uncompetitive treatment charges driven by ore shortages, tightening refined supply further. On the global balance sheet, the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the zinc market surplus narrowed to 16,000 metric tons in April, down from 23,400 tons in March, although the cumulative surplus for the first four months of 2025 remains significant at 151,000 tons, only slightly lower than last year’s levels. Technically, the market is showing signs of long liquidation with open interest dropping by 2.23% to 3,509 lots while prices declined by 2.35. Immediate support for zinc is pegged at 254.8, with a break lower opening the way towards 253.5. Resistance is now likely at 257.9, and a move above could push prices towards 259.7 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

*  Zinc trading range for the day is 253.5-259.7.

* Zinc dropped amid a fresh increase in inventories, while markets continued to assess the outlook for demand.

* Deliverable zinc at the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped by 800 tonnes on the last week of June.

* Commerzbank sees 2025 year – end zinc price forecast at $2,800/ton

Aluminium

Aluminium futures closed marginally higher by 0.06% at 248.95, supported by persistent supply risks in the raw material market and optimism about stable manufacturing demand through the year. A major driver of uncertainty remains the fragile situation in Guinea — one of the world’s largest bauxite exporters — where disagreements between the Guinean government and Emirates Global Aluminium threaten to disrupt mining licenses. This has already limited Guinea’s exports, causing China’s bauxite imports to fall 21% month-on-month in May, prompting the world’s largest aluminium producer to diversify raw material sourcing. On the inventory side, while LME on-warrant aluminium stocks have edged higher since the beginning of the year, total inventories across LME and SHFE remain roughly 60% lower than the same period last year, indicating tightness in the physical market. Meanwhile, China’s aluminium output rose by 5% YoY to 3.83 million metric tons in May and reached 18.59 million metric tons in the first five months of 2025, up 4% YoY, reflecting steady smelter runs amid firm domestic demand. However, Japanese buyers have negotiated sharply lower premiums for Q3 shipments at $108 per metric ton, down 41% from the previous quarter, highlighting subdued demand and sufficient supply in Asia. Technically, aluminium is showing signs of short covering with open interest dropping by 0.73% to 4,242 lots, while prices edged up slightly by 0.15. Immediate support lies at 247.9, and a break below this could push prices down to 246.9. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 250.1, and a move above this could see prices testing 251.3 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 246.9-251.3.

* Aluminium prices rose as concerns over raw material supply resurfaced.

* Combined LME and SHFE aluminium inventories remain about 60% lower compared to the same time last year.

* China's aluminium production rose by 5.0 % to 3.83 million metric tons in May from a year earlier.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy futures closed 0.78% higher at 54,310, staging a modest rebound on short covering after recent losses driven by India’s marginal upward revision in its production estimate for the 2024–25 season. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has raised its output projection slightly to 291.35 lakh bales from 291.30 lakh bales, mainly due to better-than-expected yields in Odisha. Despite this, domestic consumption continues to lag; the CAI’s April report cut India’s consumption estimate by 8 lakh bales to 307 lakh bales, signaling softer demand from textile mills amid muted downstream orders. India’s cotton exports are also trending lower this season, with CAI trimming its estimate by 1 lakh bale to 15 lakh bales, compared to last year’s 28.36 lakh bales, highlighting the competitive pressure in global markets and slower offtake. Imports, however, remain elevated at 33 lakh bales, more than double last season’s levels, cushioning local supply but adding to stock burdens. Ending stocks for India are now pegged at 32.54 lakh bales, up from 30.19 lakh bales last year, indicating ample carry-forward supply into the next season. Globally, the latest USDA WASDE report shows a tighter outlook for the 2025–26 season, with world production revised down by over 800,000 bales due to cuts in India, the US, and Pakistan, even as China’s production outlook was raised by 1 million bales. Technically, the market shows fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.92% to 64 lots, while prices gained 420. Support lies at 54,030, with a break lower likely to test 53,760. Resistance is now at 54,680, and a move above could open the door for a test of 55,060 in the coming sessions.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 53760-55060.

* Cotton gains on short covering after prices dropped prices dropped amid slight upward revision in India’s output estimate.

* CAI cut consumption forecast by 8 lakh bales to 307 lakh for the 2024–25 season.

* Cotton exports expected to fall to 15 lakh bales, down 13.36 lakh from last year.

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26281.2 Rupees gained by 0.26 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric futures edged higher by 0.54% to settle at 14,094, marking a recovery driven by short covering after recent weakness triggered by expectations of a notable increase in acreage this season due to favourable monsoon rains. Arrivals in the physical market climbed to 13,660 quintals, up from 11,940 quintals, suggesting steady inflows as farmers continue to bring produce to mandis even as the season draws towards its end. On the production front, dry weather conditions have supported timely sowing, and initial estimates hint at a 15-20% increase in turmeric acreage for 2024–25 as farmers shift away from other crops with relatively lower profit margins. However, the upside to production may be capped since untimely rains could affect productivity, and yields are projected to be 10–15% lower this year, with the Nanded belt reporting small rhizomes and crop rots. The Duggirala market remains active with robust demand for fresh, higher-quality arrivals, helping maintain a premium over older stocks. So far, 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded, and with harvesting still ongoing, arrivals should stay firm through June. On the export side, April 2025 shipments rose 6% year-on-year but dipped slightly compared to March, showing stable overseas demand. Technically, turmeric shows signs of short covering, with open interest down 1.74% to 17,230 lots, supporting the current uptrend. Immediate support lies at 13,964, with a breach opening downside to 13,832. On the upside, resistance is seen at 14,254, and a breakout could lift prices further towards 14,412 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13832-14412.

*  Turmeric gains on short covering after prices dropped due to expected increase in acreage.

* Turmeric acreage is expected to increase by 15-20% this season, supported by low competitive crop prices.

* In April 2025 around 14,956.80 tonnes were exported as against 14,109.10 tonnes in April 2024 showing a rise of 6%.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14518.3 Rupees gained by 0.8 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures settled 0.77% higher at 20,270, buoyed by renewed export demand and easing geopolitical tensions in major producing regions like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. However, the upside remains capped as traders point to subdued domestic buying and lackluster overseas demand following the conclusion of the peak retail season. Despite disruptions in other producing countries, India’s export momentum remains modest, as confirmed by April 2025 shipments dropping 48.11% year-on-year to 19,719.60 tonnes, though there was a 13.74% uptick from March 2025 volumes, showing sporadic buying interest abroad. Fundamentally, comfortable supplies are keeping prices in check. Production conditions for the current season remain favorable, with India’s total jeera output estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, down from 1.10 crore bags last year due to a smaller sowing area. Gujarat’s production is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan could contribute 48–50 lakh bags. On the global front, adverse weather has slashed China’s expected crop to 70–80 thousand tonnes, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan will contribute limited volumes, further underlining India’s export advantage if demand revives. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering, with open interest dropping 4.76% to 4,986 lots, indicating profit-booking by traders after the recent rebound. Support is firm at 19,980, below which the market may retest 19,690. On the upside, resistance is seen at 20,450, with a breakout paving the way for a potential move towards 20,630 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19690-20630.

* Jeera gained on strong export demand and easing geopolitical concerns.

* However upside seen limited due to weak domestic and export demand post retail season.

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20697.65 Rupees gained by 0.04 percent.

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