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Gold

Gold prices rebounded sharply, settling 1.59% higher at 152,916 amid short covering and improving market sentiment. The precious metal gained support after reports indicated that U.S. and Iranian officials had agreed on a peace framework aimed at ending their conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and easing disruptions to global energy supplies. The development triggered a decline in crude oil prices, reducing inflationary concerns and lowering expectations of prolonged monetary tightening. Market expectations for a U.S. interest rate hike in December eased slightly, with CME FedWatch indicating a 64% probability compared to 69% a week earlier. Economic data, however, remained supportive for gold. U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in May, registering the strongest annual increase in three-and-a-half years, largely driven by elevated energy costs during the Middle East tensions. Despite softer inflation concerns following the peace agreement, investors continue to monitor upcoming economic indicators and central bank policy signals closely. Physical demand trends were mixed across major consuming regions. In India, jewellery demand improved marginally as lower prices encouraged selective buying, although overall sentiment remained cautious. Dealers offered discounts of up to $35 per ounce, significantly narrower than the previous week's discounts of up to $87. In China, premiums eased to $1-$5 per ounce from $7-$10 earlier, reflecting moderate demand conditions. Meanwhile, global gold ETF sentiment softened, with May witnessing net outflows of $2 billion, reducing total assets under management to $604 billion, though year-to-date inflows remain positive at nearly $17 billion. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.8% to 8,836 contracts while prices advanced sharply. Gold is holding support at 152,405, followed by 151,895. On the upside, resistance is seen at 153,650, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 154,385.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151895-154385.

*  Gold rose after U.S. and Iran officials said they had reached a deal to end their conflict.

*  U.S. and Iranian officials said they had agreed on a peace framework for a deal to end their war, halt the U.S. blockade of Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

*  Gold demand in India improved slightly as softer prices drew in jewellery buyers even as caution prevailed, while premiums in China eased.

Silver

Silver prices extended gains and settled 2.14% higher at 251,458, supported by broad-based short covering and improving investor sentiment. The rally came after reports that the United States and Iran had reached a peace agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy trade route. The agreement, expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on June 19, includes sanctions relief for Iran, removal of blockades, and measures related to Tehran’s nuclear program. The easing of geopolitical tensions helped stabilize financial markets while investors continued to assess the outlook for global economic growth and monetary policy. Attention is now focused on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting, where interest rates are widely expected to remain unchanged. Recent U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture, with manufacturing output remaining flat in May against expectations for growth, while industrial production rose only 0.1%, below market forecasts. At the same time, U.S. producer prices increased 6.5% year-on-year, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures linked to earlier energy market disruptions. The European Central Bank also raised interest rates and upgraded its inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Fundamental support for silver remains strong, particularly from China. March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes, nearly three times the historical average, driven by robust retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by the photovoltaic industry. London silver vault holdings increased 0.6% month-on-month to 27,611 tonnes. In India, new restrictions on silver imports are expected to tighten domestic supplies and potentially support local premiums, although lower import demand could weigh on global trade flows. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 1.78% to 11,172 contracts while prices moved higher. Silver has immediate support at 250,400, followed by 249,350. Resistance is seen at 253,350, and a sustained breakout above this level could open the door for a move towards 255,250.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 249350-255250.

* Silver jumped after the US and Iran reached a peace agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

* Fed will hold its first policy meeting this week under new chair Kevin Warsh and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

* Markets see a 64% chance of a U.S. interest rate hike in December this year after the peace deal, down from 69% last week

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices witnessed heavy selling pressure and settled 5.64% lower at 7,618 as easing geopolitical tensions reduced concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Market sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s deputy foreign minister announced an initial agreement to end hostilities and restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed memorandum, expected to be signed in Switzerland this week, includes the reopening of maritime routes, removal of the U.S. naval blockade, and measures aimed at normalizing regional trade flows. The prospect of uninterrupted oil shipments significantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had supported prices in recent months. Additional pressure came after Goldman Sachs lowered its average Brent crude forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel from $85, citing expectations of stronger supply growth and softer global demand. Demand concerns were further reinforced by weak import data from China, where May crude oil imports fell 29% year-on-year to 7.79 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than eight years. The sharp decline highlights ongoing weakness in consumption from the world’s largest crude importer and continues to weigh on the broader demand outlook. On the supply side, U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories declined by 7.2 million barrels, exceeding market expectations for a 4 million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at Cushing also fell, while refinery utilization increased to 95.3%. However, gasoline inventories posted a modest build, indicating mixed demand trends. Meanwhile, OPEC output in May dropped to its lowest level in more than two decades due to disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and shipping constraints. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 3.77% to 10,054 contracts while prices fell sharply. Crude oil has immediate support at 7,462, followed by 7,306. Resistance is seen at 7,862, and a move above this level could trigger further recovery towards 8,106.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 7306-8106.

* Crude oil slipped after President Trump and Iran's deputy foreign minister said they had reached an ‌initial deal to end the war.

* US, Iran to sign MOU on peace deal on Friday, Pakistan PM says

* OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day from 1.17 million

Natural gas

Natural gas prices ended marginally higher, settling 0.27% up at 297.5, supported by improving demand expectations and signs of stronger seasonal consumption. Market sentiment remained constructive as forecasts pointed to above-normal temperatures across much of the United States through late June, increasing cooling demand and boosting gas consumption by power generators. With nearly 40% of U.S. electricity generated from natural gas-fired plants, warmer weather is expected to support higher fuel usage as air-conditioning demand rises heading into early July. Fundamental indicators presented a mixed picture. According to LSEG, average natural gas production in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June from 109.7 bcfd in May, reflecting a modest slowdown in output. At the same time, total gas demand, including exports, is projected to increase from 102.9 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd next week, highlighting improving consumption trends. LNG export activity remains relatively strong despite seasonal maintenance work, with average flows to major U.S. export facilities at 16.5 bcfd so far in June compared to 17.1 bcfd in May. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a storage injection of 108 billion cubic feet for the week ended June 5, exceeding market expectations of 99 bcf and remaining above the five-year average build of 95 bcf. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both natural gas production and demand to reach record levels over the next two years. U.S. dry gas production is projected to rise to 111.0 bcfd in 2026 and 113.6 bcfd in 2027, while LNG exports are forecast to climb steadily to 18.6 bcfd by 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.45% to 19,604 contracts while prices advanced modestly. Natural gas has immediate support at 289.8, followed by 282.0. Resistance is seen at 301.8, and a breakout above this level could extend gains towards 306.0.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 282-306.

* Natural gas edged up amid improving demand prospects, with a recovery in LNG exports

* EIA said energy firms added 108 bcf of gas into storage during the week ended June 5.

* Average gas output in U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 109.0 bcfd so far in June, down from 109.7 bcfd in May

Copper

Copper prices extended gains and settled 0.4% higher at 1,340.75, supported by improving global risk sentiment following a framework agreement between the United States and Iran aimed at ending their conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The easing of geopolitical tensions reduced concerns over energy-driven inflation, weakened the U.S. dollar, and encouraged buying across industrial metals. Additional support came from ongoing speculation regarding potential U.S. import tariffs on refined copper, which has created a premium for U.S. metal and tightened supplies in other regions as inventories continue to flow into the American market. Market sentiment was further strengthened by supportive long-term supply fundamentals. Jefferies expects copper prices to remain elevated due to an average annual supply deficit of nearly 491,000 tonnes through 2030 and slower recovery at major mining operations. China's central bank also instructed lenders to increase credit availability, reinforcing expectations of stronger economic activity and industrial demand. Meanwhile, China reported a 3.2% year-on-year increase in unwrought copper imports in April to a seven-month high of 452,000 tonnes, driven by substantial investment in power infrastructure, with power grid spending rising 37% during the first quarter. Despite the positive sentiment, the International Copper Study Group reported a 30,000-tonne global refined copper surplus in March and projects a surplus of 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and 377,000 tonnes in 2027 due to slower demand growth and higher secondary production. However, major banks remain bullish, with Goldman Sachs and Citi raising their copper price forecasts, citing tighter mine supply, stronger U.S. imports, and potential tariff-related disruptions. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 4.52% to 16,271 contracts while prices moved higher. Copper has immediate support at 1,335.7, followed by 1,330.7. Resistance is seen at 1,347.6, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains towards 1,354.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1330.7-1354.5.

* Copper prices gained as a fall in oil prices eased energy-driven inflation fears and weakened the dollar.

* China's May unwrought copper imports slip 1.33% m/m

* U.S. consumer sentiment improved in early June, but inflation expectations remained elevated.

Zinc

Zinc prices ended modestly higher, settling 0.3% up at 369.9, supported by improving risk sentiment after a framework agreement between the United States and Iran eased concerns over prolonged geopolitical tensions and potential energy supply disruptions. The agreement helped reduce inflation fears and weakened the U.S. dollar, providing support to base metals. Additional bullish sentiment emerged from tightening supply conditions following a series of disruptions at key zinc production facilities around the world. Supply-side concerns intensified after Nexa Resources temporarily suspended operations at its 344,400-tonne-per-year Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru following a fire that damaged critical infrastructure. At the same time, Glencore-owned Kazzinc continued operating at reduced capacity after an explosion at its zinc and lead facilities in Kazakhstan. Goldman Sachs also highlighted risks to production at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine following a seismic event earlier this year, suggesting output could remain below previous levels for an extended period. These disruptions reinforced concerns about refined zinc availability despite expectations for gradual supply growth in coming years. On the demand side, China continued to provide support through accommodative monetary policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand and industrial activity. Factory-gate inflation in China rose for a third consecutive month in May, reaching its highest level since 2022. However, gains were capped by concerns over slowing global economic growth after the World Bank lowered its 2026 growth forecast. Data from the International Lead and Zinc Study Group showed the global zinc market surplus narrowed to 32,700 tonnes in March from 58,700 tonnes in February, reflecting improving market balance conditions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 6.13% to 2,388 contracts while prices moved higher. Zinc has immediate support at 366.9, followed by 364.0. Resistance is seen at 372.4, and a sustained move above this level could open the door for further gains towards 375.0.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 364-375.

* Zinc prices rise as a U.S.-Iran framework agreement to end their war.

* Prices also gained supported by tightening supply conditions following recent disruptions.

* Factory-gate inflation in China, rose for a third straight month in May to its highest since 2022

Aluminium

Aluminium prices witnessed sharp selling pressure and settled 4.92% lower at 356.8 as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reduced concerns over supply disruptions and improved prospects for exports from major Gulf producers. Market sentiment weakened after U.S. and Iranian officials announced a framework agreement to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for global aluminium trade. The prospect of restored logistics and smoother exports from the Gulf region triggered profit-taking across the aluminium market and reduced the risk premium that had supported prices in recent months. Despite the decline, several supply-side concerns continue to underpin the broader market outlook. Norsk Hydro declared a second force majeure on aluminium sales from its Qatalum joint venture in Qatar following the termination of a marketing agreement. Production challenges also persist across the Gulf region, with Emirates Global Aluminium's flagship smelter expected to take up to a year to return to full capacity, while Bahrain’s ALBA continues to operate below normal levels. In addition, Guinea’s tighter controls on bauxite exports have raised concerns over raw material availability. Supporting the longer-term outlook, J.P. Morgan maintained a bullish stance, projecting aluminium prices could average $3,750 per metric ton in the second half of the year and eventually move towards $4,000. China remained a key driver of market activity. The country’s unwrought aluminium and product exports rose 5.68% year-on-year in May to 632,000 tonnes, while exports for the first five months of 2026 increased 10.4%. Domestic production also remained strong, with April output rising 3.1% year-on-year to 3.87 million tonnes, supported by favorable producer margins. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 23.75% to 2,382 contracts while prices declined sharply. Aluminium has immediate support at 348.8, followed by 340.8. Resistance is seen at 370.0, and a move above this level could trigger a recovery towards 383.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 340.8-383.2.

* Aluminium fell as a U.S.-Iran framework agreement to end their war eases supply concerns.

* LME 3-month dropped 3.3% at $3,418 a metric ton, having hit $3,417, its lowest since March 30.

* J.P. Morgan reiterates $4,000/t target for aluminum

Turmeric

Turmeric prices ended higher, settling 1.61% up at 16,646, supported by fresh buying despite continued pressure from increased arrivals during the peak harvest season. Farmers have accelerated stock liquidation to meet liquidity requirements ahead of the Kharif sowing season, leading to a steady flow of supplies into major mandis. Daily arrivals have outpaced immediate demand, creating short-term pressure on prices, while significant inventories, estimated at around 1.13 lakh bags in Warangal, have kept buyers cautious. Additional pressure came from reports of quality deterioration and rhizome rot in some harvested lots, forcing sellers to offer discounts for average-quality produce. However, underlying market sentiment remained supported by tightening overall stock availability and stable export demand. Industry estimates suggest carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags from more than 20 lakh bags a year ago, reducing the availability buffer despite the current supply influx. Demand from Bangladesh for finger-variety turmeric has remained active, particularly in Andhra Pradesh markets, while growing interest from European buyers for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric has provided support for premium-quality stocks. On the export front, turmeric shipments during March 2026 declined 16.8% year-on-year to 12,559.72 tonnes, reflecting softer overseas demand and increased global competition. Nevertheless, exports improved by 10.14% compared to February, indicating a gradual recovery in buying interest. Cumulative exports for the April-March 2026 period remained broadly stable at 175,896 tonnes, highlighting resilient long-term international demand. Meanwhile, the advance of the Southwest Monsoon and expectations of above-normal rainfall have improved prospects for the next planting season, encouraging expectations of higher acreage in 2026-27. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 20.9% to 19,815 contracts while prices gained 264 rupees. Turmeric has immediate support at 16,538, followed by 16,432. Resistance is seen at 16,762, and a move above this level could extend gains towards 16,880.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 16432-16880.

* Turmeric prices gained on short covering after prices dropped amid increased selling pressure from farmers.

* While cumulative exports are up, immediate fresh orders from Europe and the U.S. slowed.

* The Southwest Monsoon's advance into Southern India has improved sentiment for the sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15735.3 Rupees gained by 0.52 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices moved higher and settled 2.01% up at 20,015, supported by strong demand for premium-quality supplies and concerns over the availability of high-grade stocks. Market sentiment improved as buyers from Europe and North America returned to procure residue-compliant and high-specification cumin, while domestic industrial processors increased inventory purchases at prevailing price levels. Support also came from reports of recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan, which damaged parts of the standing crop during the harvest stage and raised concerns over reduced availability of superior-quality “A-grade” produce. In addition, unseasonal rainfall across North-West India delayed drying and processing activities, temporarily tightening the supply of market-ready stocks. Despite the price rise, gains remained limited due to increasing arrivals of the new crop from major producing regions. Favorable harvesting conditions enabled farmers to complete harvesting operations faster than expected, resulting in a sharp increase in market arrivals. Farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate funds for upcoming Kharif sowing activities, keeping supply pressure elevated. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi have stabilized at around 28,500 bags, reflecting ample near-term availability. However, the proportion of premium Sortex-grade carryover stocks is lower than last year, which continues to support higher-quality material. Fundamentally, production prospects remain lower than the previous season. Industry estimates suggest national cumin production may decline to 90–92 lakh bags compared to around 1.10 crore bags last year, primarily due to reduced acreage and lower yields in Gujarat. Production concerns have also been heightened by blight disease outbreaks in key growing regions. Internationally, expectations of stronger Chinese buying and lower output in competing origins such as China support the longer-term outlook. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 14.75% to 8,028 contracts while prices gained 395 rupees. Jeera has immediate support at 19,820, followed by 19,610. Resistance is seen at 20,170, and a move above this level could extend gains towards 20,310.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19610-20310.

* Jeera prices gained as availability of premium quality, bold seeds is shrinking.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut that weighed on prices.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19954.4 Rupees dropped by -0.64 percent.

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