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Metal’s Outlook

Bullion Outlook

• Spot Gold is likely to hold the support near $4240 level and rise towards $4380 level on weak dollar and softening of US treasury yields. Further, prices may rally as US and Iran agreed on a framework to end war, halt US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen Strait of Hormuz; easing fears about persistent inflation and potential rate hike by US Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped as investors will remain cautious ahead of US Federal Reserve monetary policy scheduled this week, first policy meet under the leadership of Kevin Warsh. Central bank is most likely to keep policy untouched but more focus will be on statements and dot-plot to get clarity on interest rate trajectory. Additionally, any discussion on reducing the size of the Fed's balance sheet will draw attention.

• MCX Gold Aug is expected to rise towards Rs 154,000- Rs 155,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 150,000 level

• MCX Silver July is expected to rise towards Rs 255,500 - Rs 258,000 level as long as it stays above Rs 243,000 level.

Base Metal Outlook

• Copper prices are expected to trade with positive bias amid weak dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Market sentiments improved as US and Iran reached primary peace deal to end war and reopen key shipping lanes in Middle East. Further, prices may rally on ongoing concerns about US import tariffs. Investors are awaiting a recommendation from the US Department of Commerce by the end of the month on possible tariffs on imports of refined copper. Meanwhile, sharp upside may be capped as demand outlook remains clouded by the prospect of tighter monetary policy across major economies, which could slow down economic activity and industrial consumption

• MCX Copper June is expected to rise towards Rs 1350 level as long as it stays above Rs 1327 level. A break above Rs 1350 level prices may be pushed towards Rs 1355- Rs 1360 level

• MCX Aluminum June is expected to slip towards Rs 369 - Rs 365 level as long as its stays below Rs 379 level. MCX Zinc June is likely to hold support near Rs 365 level and rise towards Rs 372- Rs 375 level.

Energy Outlook

• NYMEX Crude oil is likely to trade with negative bias as Iran and US reached an initial deal to end the war in Middle East and resume traffic through Strait of Hormuz, easing critical energy supply concerns. Additionally, risk premium that had been built will unwind further. Moreover, prospect of additional Iranian oil reaching markets would weigh on prices. Furthermore, UK, France, Germany and Italy are also prepared to lift sanctions on Iran in response to steps on its nuclear programme. Meanwhile, sharp fall in prices may be cushioned on weak dollar and rise in risk appetite in the global markets. Further, investors will see how quickly Middle Eastern producers can resume oil production and exports following damage from the war and whether more ships will enter the region. MCX Crude oil June is likely to face stiff resistance near Rs 8200 level and slip towards Rs 7600- Rs 7400 level

• MCX Natural gas June is expected to slip towards Rs 283 - Rs 280 level as long as it stays below Rs 308 level.

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