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Gold

Gold prices settled higher by 0.45% at 1,01,542 on renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence after President Trump sought the removal of Governor Lisa Cook, raising fears of political interference in monetary policy. Market participants are now pricing in nearly an 80% probability of a quarter-point rate cut in September, supporting the safe-haven appeal of bullion. Trade tensions also underpinned sentiment, with the U.S. expected to double tariffs on Indian goods to 50% after a stalled deal, while Indonesia secured exemptions and Trump threatened steep tariffs on China’s rare-earth exports. On the supply and demand front, Swiss gold export data showed steady volumes in July, with shipments to the U.S. surging to 51 tons from just 288 kg in June, while exports to India rose sharply to 13 tons. However, deliveries to the UK and China fell significantly. China’s net imports through Hong Kong rose 126.81% month-on-month in July, though physical demand across Asian hubs remained subdued due to price volatility. Indian jewellers resumed purchases ahead of the festival season, with local dealers quoting between a $2 discount and $3 premium over domestic prices, compared to deeper discounts a week earlier. In contrast, Chinese buyers paid premiums of $3–$8 per ounce. Gold is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 5.79% to 14,224 contracts. Support is placed at 1,01,060, with further downside risk to 1,00,585, while resistance is seen at 1,01,810 and higher at 1,02,085.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 100585-102085.

* Gold prices gained amid concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence.

* Trump threatened steep tariffs on China over rare-earth exports, further straining ties between the two superpowers.

* China's net gold imports via Hong Kong rose 126.81% in July from June.

Silver

Silver futures settled 0.24% higher at 1,16,097, supported by renewed concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence after President Trump’s move to dismiss Governor Lisa Cook raised fears of political interference in monetary policy. This has weighed on confidence in the U.S. dollar’s global standing, while markets now price in an 80% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, boosting safe-haven demand for silver. On the industrial front, silver drew strength from China’s booming solar sector. The country’s solar cell exports surged over 70% in the first half of 2025, largely driven by demand from India, while solar capacity installations hit a record 93 GW in May, tripling year-on-year. This highlights silver’s growing role in photovoltaic applications, reinforcing expectations of sustained industrial demand. Meanwhile, U.S. housing data showed July new home sales easing modestly to 652,000 units, still above expectations, keeping macro sentiment balanced. Investment flows also remained supportive. Silver-backed ETPs saw net inflows of 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, already surpassing last year’s total, taking global holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, just shy of record highs. Retail investment demand has been mixed, with strong gains in India (+7% y/y) and Europe, offsetting weaker trends in jewelry demand, particularly in India where high domestic prices have curtailed consumption. Silver is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped 7.91% to 10,919 contracts. Support is seen at 1,15,265, with a break lower opening 1,14,430, while resistance is placed at 1,16,580 and higher at 1,17,060.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 114430-117060.

* Silver gains amid renewed concerns about the Fed’s independence.

* President Donald Trump said he would remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud.

* Investors await Friday’s release of the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, for additional clues on the policy outlook.

Crude oil

Crude oil futures settled 0.92% higher at 5,618, supported by renewed supply concerns following Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and prospects of fresh U.S. sanctions against Moscow. Russia raised its August crude export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day after refinery disruptions freed up additional crude for shipment, highlighting shifting trade flows. Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated threats of tougher sanctions on Russia should peace talks fail, while also planning to double duties on certain Indian goods over New Delhi’s energy trade with Moscow. Indian refiners, however, have resumed Russian crude purchases for September and October, raising questions about the effectiveness of tariff measures. On the supply-demand front, U.S. inventory data offered additional support. Crude stocks fell by 2.392 million barrels to 418.3 million barrels, exceeding forecasts for a 2 million-barrel draw, while stocks at the Cushing hub dropped by 838,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories declined by 1.2 million barrels, though less than expected, while distillate stocks unexpectedly fell by 1.8 million barrels against a forecast rise. At the same time, OPEC’s monthly report pointed to a tighter market outlook, raising its 2026 global oil demand forecast by 100,000 bpd to 1.38 million bpd growth, while trimming non-OPEC supply growth estimates. Crude oil is witnessing short covering as open interest slipped 1.84% to 11,768 contracts. Immediate support lies at 5,575, with further downside toward 5,531 if breached, while resistance is placed at 5,646 and higher at 5,673.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5531-5673.

* Crude oil rises on supply risks from Ukraine strikes, possible new US sanctions on Russian oil.

* Crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.392 million barrels to 418.3 million barrels in the week ended August 22.

* Russia has revised up its crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day in August.

Natural gas

Natural gas futures settled sharply higher by 3.92% at 254.4, supported by bargain buying and firm LNG export flows. Exports remained robust, with average flows to the eight major U.S. LNG plants rising to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, compared with 15.6 bcfd in July and just shy of the record 16.0 bcfd in April. Weather-driven demand also provided some support, with LSEG projecting 155 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, up from 131 estimated earlier. Even so, overall gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, is expected to ease from 111.1 bcfd this week to 104.3 bcfd in the next two weeks as conditions return to seasonal norms. On the supply side, U.S. output has edged higher, averaging 108.5 bcfd so far in August, surpassing the record 107.8 bcfd in July. Storage dynamics were supportive, with energy firms injecting only 13 bcf into inventories during the week ended August 15, well below market expectations of a 22 bcf build and sharply lower than the five-year average of 35 bcf.  The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook reinforced expectations for record production and demand in 2025, with dry gas output projected at 106.4 bcfd and consumption at 91.4 bcfd. Natural gas is under short covering as open interest dropped 14.26% to 30,984 contracts. Support is at 247.4 and below at 240.3, while resistance is placed at 258.7, with a break higher opening 262.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 240.3-262.9.

* Natural gas rose buoyed by bargain buying and strong LNG export flows.

* The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 15.9 bcfd so far in August.

* Average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, would ease from 111.1 bcfd to 107.1 bcfd next week and 104.3 bcfd in two weeks.

Copper

Copper futures slipped by 0.57% to settle at 884.9, pressured by a stronger dollar, rising exchange inventories, and demand concerns from China. Chinese data showed industrial profits contracting for a third consecutive month in July, though the pace of decline moderated, while manufacturing sector profits rose by 6.8%. On the inventory side, sentiment was dented as LME copper stocks climbed by 1,100 tons in the latest data, taking total levels to 156,100 tons, up 72% since late June. COMEX inventories have nearly tripled since the start of 2025, further underscoring ample supply. However, Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks fell by 5.4% from last week, showing some regional tightness. Supply fundamentals also came into focus after Chile’s Codelco cut its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at El Teniente mine, removing 33,000 tons from expected output.  On the demand and outlook front, Citi raised its 0–3 month price forecast to $9,200 per tonne from $8,800, while Chile’s Cochilco maintained its 2025–26 average price view at $4.30 per pound, citing tight concentrate supplies and steady demand from China and emerging markets. The ICSG reported a refined copper surplus of 36,000 tonnes in June, narrowing from 79,000 tonnes in May, with H1 2025 surplus at 251,000 tonnes versus 395,000 tonnes a year ago. Copper is witnessing long liquidation with open interest down 2.42% at 6,601. Support lies at 882.6 and then 880.1, while resistance is at 887.1, with a move higher opening the path to 889.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 880.1-889.1.

* Copper slipped weighed down by a stronger dollar, rising inventories and concern about demand in China.

* LME copper inventories, added another 1,100 tons, have surged by 72% since late June to 156,100 tons.

* COMEX stocks have nearly tripled so far this year.

Zinc

Zinc futures fell by 1.26% to settle at 265.7, weighed down by a firmer dollar and profit-booking after recent gains supported by expectations of Chinese capacity cuts. While the Federal Reserve signaled a likely rate cut in September, which would normally support commodities, investors locked in profits as near-term supply and demand signals turned mixed. China’s pledge to curb metal capacity to fight deflationary pressures kept sentiment underpinned, but rising production levels capped further upside. On the supply side, global trends remain varied. Earlier this year, Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 output, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut, pointing to tighter supplies. At the same time, LME zinc inventories have dropped by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to just 42,000 tonnes, reflecting structural tightness. In contrast, SHFE stocks edged up by 1.3% from last week. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 27,200 tonnes in June from 31,400 tonnes in May. China’s refined zinc production rose sharply in July, up 3% MoM and 23% YoY, with year-to-date growth above 4%. New capacity additions in Henan and Yunnan, alongside completed maintenance in several provinces, boosted output, though heavy rains disrupted operations in South China. Zinc is under fresh selling pressure with open interest rising 11.57% to 3,027 contracts while prices dropped by 3.4. Support lies at 264.8, below which 263.7 could be tested, while resistance is seen at 267.7, with a move higher potentially targeting 269.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 263.7-269.5.

* Zinc dropped as the dollar firmed and investors booked profits.

* The global zinc market deficit fell to 27,200 metric tons in June from a deficit of 31,400 tons in May.

* Inventories in LME warehouses, dropped by 130,000 tonnes since the start of the year to 42,000 tonnes.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped by 0.98% to close at 252.8, pressured by reports of a supply surplus in June as global primary aluminium output reached 6.094 million tonnes against consumption of 5.911 million tonnes, creating an excess of 183,100 tonnes. However, on a broader scale, the first half of 2025 still reflected a minor deficit of 36,700 tonnes, balancing the short-term surplus. Prices also weakened as the dollar firmed following political uncertainty in the U.S., with concerns emerging over the Federal Reserve’s independence after the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook. On the supply front, global production in July increased 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tonnes, according to IAI data, but expectations of tightening supply limited downside pressure. Guinea Alumina’s mining licenses were revoked, raising risks to bauxite supply for Emirates Global Aluminium, while South32 announced the closure of its Mozal smelter in Mozambique due to power shortages, eliminating a key source of African output. Meanwhile, China, the world’s largest producer, remains bound by its annual cap of 45 million tonnes, restricting additional output, while Europe continues to grapple with supply constraints amid sanctions on Russia.In terms of trade, China’s July aluminium exports rose to 542,000 tonnes, while imports surged 38.2% YoY to 360,000 tonnes, reflecting robust demand momentum. Aluminium is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.84% to 3,881 contracts. Immediate support is placed at 251.9, below which prices could test 250.9, while resistance lies at 254.4, with further upside capped near 255.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 250.9-255.9.

* Aluminium dropped after reports the global primary aluminium market experienced a supply surplus in June.

* Prices were pressured by a firmer dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump's move to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

* Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports fell to 315,400 metric tons at the end of July, down 0.4% from the previous month

Turmeric

Turmeric futures yesterday settled lower by 0.99% at 13,242, pressured by expectations of higher acreage following favorable rains in the current sowing season. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage could rise by 15–20% as alternative crops offer comparatively lower profitability. For the 2024–25 season, the total area under turmeric has been reported at 3.30 lakh hectares, about 10% higher than the previous season’s 3 lakh hectares, indicating prospects of improved supply. However, limited arrivals and nearly depleted farmer-held stocks in Warangal are offering some cushion to prices in the near term. At the Duggirala market, fresh arrivals continue to draw strong buyer interest, with new stock commanding higher prices over older inventory due to better quality. Daily trade volumes remain steady at 1,000–1,200 bags, reflecting firm market activity despite the usual end-of-season slowdown. Approximately 50–55% of the new crop has already been traded, while harvesting is still in progress and arrivals are expected to continue until June. On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–June 2025 increased by 3.12% year-on-year to 47,949.56 tonnes, though June 2025 exports fell by 7.93% compared to the same month last year and slumped 28.21% from May 2025 levels, signaling demand fluctuations. Turmeric futures remain under long liquidation, with open interest slipping by 0.14% to 17,810 contracts. Support is placed at 13,144, with a further decline possible to 13,048, while resistance is seen at 13,372 and 13,504 on the upside.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13048-13504.

* Turmeric dropped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* However upside seen limited as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13710.95 Rupees dropped by -0.14 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures yesterday settled lower by 1.12% at 19,465, pressured by weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. Traders noted that the decline was largely due to subdued overseas interest, as foreign buyers remain inactive despite geopolitical disruptions in key producing regions such as Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan. Comfortable supplies and adequate existing stocks are further weighing on sentiment, with around 20 lakh bags still held by farmers. Of this, only 3–4 lakh bags are likely to be traded before the end of the season, leaving an estimated carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. On the supply side, production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, due to reduced sowing. Gujarat’s output is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is expected to produce 48–50 lakh bags. In comparison, international production remains limited, with China’s estimates revised lower to 70–80 thousand tonnes on adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan together contribute around 30–33 thousand tonnes. Despite this, India’s export momentum has remained weak, with April–June 2025 exports dropping 19.57% year-on-year to 59,247.76 tonnes. However, June 2025 shipments showed a 10.26% rise over June 2024 at 16,322.06 tonnes, though still down nearly 30% compared to May 2025 levels. Jeera remains under long liquidation, with open interest slipping 0.63% to 4,704 contracts. Support is placed at 19,370, with a break below exposing 19,260, while resistance lies at 19,670 and higher at 19,860.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19260-19860.

* Jeera prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19955.5 Rupees gained by 0.22 percent.

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