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Gold

Gold prices gained firmly, settling 0.95% higher at 100,384 as remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole fueled expectations of an imminent rate cut. Powell highlighted that inflation risks have eased while employment risks are rising, suggesting a shift in the Fed’s policy stance. This boosted confidence in a September rate cut and raised the possibility of further cuts in the fourth quarter. Supporting this outlook, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235K, an eight-week high, signaling a cooling labor market. Meanwhile, Fed minutes showed policymakers remained wary of inflation risks linked to newly imposed U.S. tariffs. On the trade side, Swiss customs data showed stable gold exports in July as strong shipments to the U.S. (51.0 tons, the highest since March) and India (13.0 tons, sharply up from 3.0 tons) offset declines to the UK and China. Physical demand in Asia remained mixed, with Indian jewellers restocking ahead of the festival season and dealers quoting between a $2 discount and $3 premium, compared with deeper discounts last week. Chinese premiums held firm at $3–$8 per ounce, reflecting steady demand despite volatility, while other Asian hubs like Hong Kong, Singapore, and Japan also saw premiums. Technically, gold is in short covering mode as open interest fell 6.72% to 12,634 contracts. Support is placed at 99,550, with a break below exposing 98,720, while resistance is seen at 100,830, and a move above may test 101,280.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 98720-101280.

* Gold climbed as Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks boosted rate cut bets.

* Powell noted inflation risks easing, while employment risks remain downside.

* Markets priced September cut, expecting additional easing in fourth quarter.

Silver

Silver surged 2.23% to settle at 116,236 as the dollar index slipped below 98 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech signaled possible rate cuts ahead. Powell acknowledged that labor market risks are rising, with July jobs data showing weaker hiring and jobless claims climbing to 235K, the sharpest increase in eight weeks. Continuing claims also rose to their highest since late 2021, reinforcing expectations that the Fed may act as soon as September. Markets quickly priced in a 91% probability of a quarter-point cut, which alongside improved risk sentiment, lifted silver prices. Adding to the upside, optimism in the industrial metals space gained traction following renewed U.S.-China trade talks. On the investment side, silver exchange-traded product (ETP) inflows surged by 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, already surpassing last year’s total. This drove global silver ETP holdings to 1.13 billion ounces, close to the record highs of 2021. Retail investment demand has also been robust, with India recording a 7% year-on-year rise, while Europe extended its recovery trend from late 2024. Looking at fundamentals, the silver market is projected to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.  Technically, silver is under short covering as open interest fell sharply by 16.37% to 12,952 contracts. Support is now seen at 114,030, with a break lower exposing 111,830, while resistance lies at 117,400, and a move above may test 118,570.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 111830-118570.

* Silver rose as dollar index fell below 98 after Fed Powell hinted at possible rate cuts in his Jackson Hole speech.

* Powell noted that while unemployment remains low, risks to the labor market are rising and policy remains “restrictive”.

* Trump: I will fire Fed's Cook if she doesn't resign.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices inched higher by 0.16% to settle at 5,572 as geopolitical tensions and supply-demand signals drove sentiment. Hopes for a near-term peace deal between Russia and Ukraine faded after reports of intensified strikes on both sides, raising concerns about supply disruptions. At the same time, U.S. pressure on India escalated, with Washington imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods effective August 27, a move that complicates India’s crude imports given oil accounts for nearly 35% of its import basket. On the supply-demand side, U.S. inventories showed a mixed picture. Nationwide crude stocks fell sharply by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million, marking the largest draw since mid-June and exceeding expectations of a 1.8 million-barrel decline. However, stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 419,000 barrels, signaling softer underlying demand. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels, more than triple the expected draw, while distillate stocks rose by 2.3 million barrels, well above forecasts, highlighting uneven consumption trends. Refinery utilization also edged higher to 96.6%, reflecting strong processing activity. Globally, OPEC raised its forecast for 2026 oil demand growth to 1.38 million barrels per day, while trimming supply growth expectations from non-OPEC producers to 630,000 barrels per day. Technically, crude oil is under short covering as open interest declined by 3.15% to 12,637 contracts while prices edged higher. Immediate support is at 5,547, with a break below opening the path to 5,522. Resistance is seen at 5,600, and a move above could extend gains toward 5,628.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5522-5628.

* Crude oil rose as peace hopes dimmed amid renewed Russia-Ukraine strikes.

* U.S. inventories saw largest nationwide draw since mid-June, supporting prices.

* Cushing crude stocks built further, highlighting weaker underlying market demand.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices extended their decline, settling down by 4.88% at 235.9, weighed by strong supply fundamentals and limited demand triggers. Despite hotter-than-average summer conditions, record output has kept the market well supplied. Production in the Lower 48 states averaged 108.1 bcfd so far in August, slightly above July’s 107.9 bcfd, though daily output briefly dipped to a six-week low of 106.4 bcfd. On the demand side, weekly storage injections provided a mixed picture. U.S. energy firms added just 13 bcf into storage for the week ended August 15, well below market expectations of 22 bcf and the five-year norm of 35 bcf. The smaller build reflected stronger cooling demand, yet overall supplies remain robust enough to cap price gains. LNG export flows edged higher, averaging 15.8 bcfd in August, while weather forecasts pointing to near-seasonal conditions through early September suggest limited upside in consumption. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Outlook projected both gas production and demand to hit record highs in 2025 before easing slightly in 2026. Dry gas output is expected to climb from 103.2 bcfd in 2024 to 106.4 bcfd in 2025, while consumption rises from 90.5 bcfd to 91.4 bcfd. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling sharply by 17.55% to 18,219 contracts as prices dropped 12.1. Support lies at 231.9, with further weakness likely toward 227.8 if broken. Resistance is at 243.3, and a move above could see a retest of 250.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 227.8-250.6.

* Natural gas fell as supply remained abundant.

* Production in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 108.1 bcfd so far in August, slightly above July’s 107.9 bcfd.

* However, weekly injections into storage were below the five-year norm, suggesting limited pressure from demand.

Copper

Copper prices inched higher, settling up 0.37% at 880.55, supported by firm Chinese demand and global supply-side developments. The Yangshan copper premium, a key gauge of import demand into China, rose 13% to $51 per ton since August 11, underlining robust appetite in the world’s largest consumer. At the same time, copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 5.4% week-on-week, further tightening near-term availability. Sentiment also received a boost from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s remarks that signaled upcoming rate cuts, which typically support industrial metals by lowering borrowing costs and stimulating economic activity. On the supply front, Chilean state-run miner Codelco cut its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its flagship El Teniente mine, curbing output by 33,000 tons. While Peru reported a 7.1% year-on-year rise in June production, supply risks in Chile—the world’s largest producer—remain a key bullish factor.  On the market balance side, the ICSG reported a global refined copper surplus of 36,000 tons in June, narrower than May’s 79,000-ton surplus, while the first half of 2025 posted a 251,000-ton surplus, sharply down from 395,000 tons last year. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering as open interest dropped sharply by 21.68% to 2,291 contracts while prices rose 3.25. Immediate support lies at 877.1, with further downside risk toward 873.6. Resistance is seen at 882.6, and a break above could open the way toward 884.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 873.6-884.6.

* Copper rose as demand in China remained healthy and investors interest rate cuts ahead.

* In China, the Yangshan copper premium, has gained 13% to $51 a ton since August 11.

* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 5.4 % from last Friday

Zinc

Zinc prices edged higher, settling up 0.74% at 267 as sentiment improved after eurozone businesses reported an increase in new orders in August for the first time since May 2024, driving overall activity to its fastest expansion in 15 months. However, gains were capped as zinc inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.3% from last Friday, while total ingot stocks across seven key locations in China climbed to 135,400 mt, up 16,300 mt from August 11. On the supply front, global mine output remains mixed. Major overseas producers posted more than 12% year-on-year growth, yet disruptions continue. Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 production, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut. In China, smelters face pressure from overcapacity and adverse weather, with heavy rains in the south curbing operations. Routine and delayed maintenance across multiple regions, including Shaanxi, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia, alongside new capacity releases in Henan and Yunnan, contributed to July’s significant production increase. Globally, the zinc market shifted into a deficit of 44,100 tons in May, compared with a surplus of 17,300 tons in April, although the first five months of 2025 still showed an overall surplus of 88,000 tons, narrower than last year’s 214,000 tons. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped 21.92% to 1,215 while prices rose by 1.95. Support is placed at 265, with further downside risk toward 263, while resistance is at 268.3, and a break higher could extend gains to 269.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 263-269.6.

* Zinc gains as euro zone new orders grow in August for first time since May 2024.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE rose 1.3% from last Friday.

* The production of major overseas zinc mines increased by over 12% YoY.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices gained modestly, settling 0.52% higher at 251.55, supported by signs of tightening supply and firm demand prospects. Lower inventories in key markets and improving consumption outlook in China lent stability to prices despite global macroeconomic uncertainties. According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tonnes. Meanwhile, investors remained cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for cues on potential rate cuts, which could influence broader market sentiment. On the trade front, the United States widened its 50% import tariff on aluminium and related products, extending it to more than 400 items, including appliances and wind turbines. Supply risks remain prominent as European markets continue to face constraints due to sanctions on Russia, one of the largest producers. In China, production continues to operate under an annual cap of 45 million tonnes, aimed at controlling overcapacity and emissions, while July output rose 3.11% month-on-month and 1.05% year-on-year. Exports surged to 542,000 tonnes in July, up from June’s 489,000 tonnes, while imports jumped 38.2% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes, bringing year-to-date imports to 2.33 million tonnes, 1.5% higher than the previous year. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped by 15.9% to 1,783 while prices gained 1.3. Aluminium finds support at 249.9, with a break lower opening downside toward 248.1. Resistance is seen at 252.6, and a move above could extend gains to 253.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 248.1-253.5.

* Aluminium climbed as lower inventories and signs of improving demand in China boosted prices.

* Global primary aluminium output in July rose 2.5% year-on-year to 6.373 million tonnes – IAI

* Investors are closely watching for cues from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Friday for a test of bets on a rate cut.

Turmeric

Turmeric edged higher, settling 0.35% up at 13,372, supported by dwindling farmer-held stocks in Warangal and the absence of fresh arrivals over the last two days. The market is firm as traders closely monitor weather patterns and crop conditions, with low inflows and cautious selling providing underlying support. However, the upside remains capped due to an expected increase in acreage, as favorable rains this season have encouraged higher sowing. Preliminary estimates suggest turmeric acreage could rise by 15–20% for 2025-26, compared with a 10% increase last season when area reached 3.30 lakh hectares. At the Duggirala market, fresh crop arrivals continue to draw strong buyer interest, with newer produce fetching premiums over older stocks due to superior quality. Market activity remains robust, with daily trade volumes between 1,000–1,200 bags, and about 50–55% of the total new crop already traded. Harvesting is ongoing, and arrivals are expected to continue through June, keeping the market active. On the export front, turmeric shipments during April–June 2025 rose 3.12% to 47,949.56 tonnes from 46,498.64 tonnes a year earlier. However, June 2025 exports slipped 7.93% year-on-year and fell sharply by 28.21% from May levels, reflecting volatility in overseas demand.  Technically, the market is under fresh buying with open interest rising 0.71% to 17,750 contracts. Prices gained 46, indicating renewed participation. Support is seen at 13,238, with a break lower opening the way to 13,106, while resistance is at 13,576, above which prices may test 13,782.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13106-13782.

* Turmeric gained as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* However upside seen limited amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13730.65 Rupees gained by 0.18 percent.

Jeera

Jeera staged a rebound, settling 1.47% higher at 19,705 on short covering after recent weakness triggered by subdued domestic and export demand post the retail season. The earlier fall in prices was largely attributed to the seasonal slowdown in retail buying and lack of active participation from foreign buyers. Comfortable supplies and muted export interest continue to weigh on market sentiment, with demand largely being met from existing stocks. On the production side, estimates suggest India’s cumin output this season could decline to 90–92 lakh bags from last year’s 1.10 crore bags, owing to reduced sowing area despite favorable crop conditions. Gujarat’s output is projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan’s at 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, supplies from other producing nations such as Syria, Turkey, Afghanistan, and China are also limited. China’s output is estimated at 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are each expected to produce only 9–12 thousand tonnes, tightening global availability.  Exports from India during April–June 2025 fell 19.57% to 59,247.76 tonnes against 73,666.09 tonnes a year ago. On a positive note, June exports rose 10.26% year-on-year to 16,322.06 tonnes but slumped 29.67% month-on-month from May. In Unjha, a key spot market, prices slipped 0.31% to 19,785.2. Technically, jeera is under short covering with open interest down 4.09% to 4,929 contracts, while prices gained 285. Support is seen at 19,430 and a break lower could drag prices to 19,160. Resistance is at 19,910, with a move above opening the way for a test of 20,120.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19160-20120.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic and export demand

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19785.2 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

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