India Strategy : Earnings growth gains breadth in 4QFY26 by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd
Commodities and Financials drive the quarter; Mid-caps shine
* The Nifty-500 delivered robust double-digit earnings growth in 4QFY26, despite heightened geopolitical tensions, disruptions in energy supply dynamics, and a moderating macroeconomic environment. The aggregate earnings of the Nifty-500 universe grew 16% YoY. Excluding Financials, reported aggregate earnings jumped 17% YoY, whereas, excluding Metals and O&G, aggregate earnings grew 12% YoY.
* The aggregate sales/EBITDA/adj. PAT of the Nifty-500 grew 12%/12%/16% YoY to ~INR38.6t/INR8.2t/INR4.8t in 4QFY26. Notably, the sales growth in 4QFY26 was the highest in the past 13 quarters.
* Commodities retain earnings leadership:
4Q corporate earnings clocked broadbased growth, with significant contributions from commodities. Metals reported 55% YoY earnings growth, while OMCs clocked a 61% YoY rise along with notable contributions from Private Banks (+17%), NBFC Lending (15%), Technology (14%), Auto ex-TMPV (23%), and Telecom earnings, which surged 48x YoY over a weak base of 4QFY25. While Consumer (+14%), Cement (+13%), Infrastructure (+15%), NBFC Non-Lending (+11%), and Real Estate (+20%) clocked healthy double-digit earnings growth, Capital Goods (+8%), PSU Banks (+7%), Utilities (+7%), and Consumer Durables (+2%) posted moderate growth. In contrast, Healthcare (-2%), Chemicals (-9%), and EMS (-4%) reported a moderate earnings decline in 4QFY26.
* Midcaps outperform sharply:
The midcap companies fuel the 4QFY26 earnings performance of the Nifty-500. Aggregate earnings of the Nifty Midcap-150 companies grew 34% YoY, the highest in nine quarters, while the aggregate earnings of Nifty-100 and Smallcap-250 companies recorded 12% YoY and 13% YoY earnings growth, respectively.
* Performance of various sectors and companies: Of the 23 key sectors, 14 posted double-digit profit growth in 4QFY26. Metals, O&G, and Pvt. Banks collectively accounted for ~50% of the incremental YoY accretion in earnings. Notably, about 50% of companies (250) in the Nifty-500 reported earnings growth exceeding 15% YoY, while 33% of companies (164) experienced a decline or loss in 4Q
* The EBITDA margin of the Nifty-500 (excl. BFSI) came in at 17.7% (up 40bp YoY and 20bp QoQ) in 4QFY26.
* Earnings remain strong in FY26, with aggregate Nifty-500 earnings growing 15% YoY. Barring Financials, earnings increased 19% YoY, while earnings growth excluding Metals and O&G stood at a healthy 12% YoY.
* Midcaps outperform amid a weak market breadth: While the Nifty-500 Index returns remained broadly flat between May'25 and May'26, performance across market-cap segments was markedly divergent. The Nifty Midcap-150 Index outperformed with a 7% YoY gain, whereas the Nifty-100 Index declined 3%. Meanwhile, the Nifty Smallcap-250 Index remained largely unchanged over the same period. Beneath the headline indices, market breadth remained weak and highly polarized – nearly 30% of Nifty-500 constituents gained over 15% YoY, w hereas more than 50% of stocks delivered negative returns during the period.


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