IGI Logo

 India should brace for geopolitical disruptions every one to two years and use the current pause in geopolitical tensions to push through long-pending structural reforms, Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM) Member and Axis Bank chief economist Neelkanth Mishra said on Friday. 

The pause in hostilities offers a window to "hardwire resilience into growth” by accelerating reforms in electrification, housing, urban infrastructure and tourism, Mishra said.

The analyst noted that volatility is now structural rather than episodic but added that India is entering the volatile phase with stronger buffers compared to previous episodes in history.

“Compared to any other time in our history, we are much better prepared to deal with this,” he said, recalling a conversation with a senior policymaker who likened today’s environment to the turbulent 1989–93 period, according to a release from Kotak Private.

However, Mishra noted, that the India now has deeper capital markets, more robust external balances and greater policy credibility.

Mishra argued that while immediate fears of escalation have receded following calls for a two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States, the broader cycle of shocks is unlikely to end.

The Axis Bank chief economist singled out electrification as a strategic priority, noting that India remains far more vulnerable to oil and gas shocks than peers because too little end-use energy consumption is electric. Accelerating electrification, combined with better energy pricing, would reduce exposure to geopolitics while improving efficiency, he said.

He also urged decisive policy action on housing and urban infrastructure, to create domestic demand largely insulated from global volatility.

India has “some of the most expensive tourism in the world,” driven in part by restrictive zoning and floor-space norms, he said.

The economist said that hotel FSI and improving urban capacity would lower costs, raise competitiveness and create employment at scale.