India's Cotton Output Cut to 295.30 Lakh Bales for 2024-25 by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has lowered its 2024-25 cotton crop estimate by 2% to 295.30 lakh bales due to reduced output in central India. A 10% decline in cultivated area has led to the downward revision from last year’s 327.45 lakh bales. The government also trimmed its forecast to 294.25 lakh bales. Imports are set to double to 32 lakh bales, while exports are projected to drop by 40% to 17 lakh bales. Domestic consumption remains steady at 315 lakh bales. As a result, closing stocks by September 30, 2025, are expected to fall to 23.49 lakh bales, significantly lower than the previous season’s 30.19 lakh bales.
Key Highlights
* CAI reduces 2024-25 cotton estimate to 295.30 lakh bales.
* Government revises its cotton forecast to 294.25 lakh bales.
* Imports expected to double to 32 lakh bales.
* Exports projected to drop by 40% to 17 lakh bales.
* Closing stocks to shrink to 23.49 lakh bales by September 2025.
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has further cut its 2024-25 cotton crop estimate to 295.30 lakh bales, down 2% from its previous forecast of 301.75 lakh bales. The revision is attributed to a 10% decline in the cotton-growing area, especially in central India, where Gujarat and Maharashtra are seeing lower yields. The government has also lowered its cotton projection to 294.25 lakh bales in its second advance estimates.
Despite lower production, domestic cotton prices have remained firm due to steady demand. The CAI has retained its domestic consumption estimate at 315 lakh bales, with 142 lakh bales already consumed by February-end. With production dipping below expectations, India’s cotton imports are set to rise significantly, doubling to 32 lakh bales this season compared to 15.20 lakh bales last year. By February, 22 lakh bales had already been imported.
On the export front, shipments are expected to decline sharply by 40% to 17 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales last year. The reduced production and increasing imports have led to concerns about closing stock levels. CAI estimates the season-ending stock (September 30, 2025) at 23.49 lakh bales, significantly lower than the previous year’s 30.19 lakh bales.
Finally
India’s cotton output cut, rising imports, and declining exports highlight shifting market dynamics. With tightening stocks, domestic prices could stay firm, impacting textile industries and trade strategies in the coming months.
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