India Cotton Output Raised; Prices Rally on Strong Demand by Amit Gupta Kedia Advisory
India’s cotton output for 2025–26 has been revised higher to 324 lakh bales by the Cotton Association of India, supported mainly by higher production in Maharashtra. Despite declines in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, overall output remains stronger than last year. Cotton prices have surged above Rs.60,000 per candy, tracking global strength on ICE futures and robust demand. Continuous price hikes by Cotton Corporation of India further indicate tightening supply conditions and strong market sentiment in the domestic cotton sector.
Key Highlights
• CAI raises cotton output estimate to 324 lakh bales
• Maharashtra production revised sharply higher
• Gujarat and MP output estimates cut marginally
• Cotton prices cross Rs.60,000 per candy on strong demand
• CCI raises prices aggressively over recent weeks
Cotton prices in India have strengthened significantly, crossing the Rs.60,000 per candy mark for the first time this season, supported by firm demand and positive global cues. Domestic prices are closely tracking international benchmarks, with ICE cotton futures rising above 73 cents per pound, their highest level since June 2024. The sustained uptrend reflects tightening supply expectations and improved market sentiment.
Supporting the bullish price movement, the Cotton Association of India has revised the country’s cotton production estimate for the 2025–26 season upward to 324 lakh bales, compared to earlier projections of 320.50 lakh bales. This increase is primarily driven by higher-than-expected output in Maharashtra, where production has been raised by 7 lakh bales to 105 lakh bales. The central zone has also shown strong growth, contributing significantly to the overall increase in production.
However, this upward revision is partially offset by lower estimates in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, where production has been revised downward due to weaker crop conditions. The northern region, including Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, has also reported a slight decline in output compared to the previous year.
On the policy front, the Cotton Corporation of India has been actively increasing procurement prices, raising rates by Rs.300 per candy recently and by nearly Rs.4,500 over the past few months. This reflects continued demand strength and efforts to support market prices.
Finally, higher production estimates alongside strong demand are supporting cotton prices, but regional output variations and global trends will remain key factors shaping market direction in the coming months.
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