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Gold

Gold prices edged up by 0.25% to settle at Rs.87,991, driven by risk aversion and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Recent US PPI and CPI data indicated easing inflation pressures, reinforcing the likelihood of rate cuts, which boosts the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties - including US President Donald Trump’s threat of a 200% tariff on European wine after the EU imposed a 50% tax on American whiskey - further fueled safe-haven demand. Strong ETF inflows and sustained central bank buying, notably from China for the fourth consecutive month, also underpinned gold’s strength. However, demand dynamics painted a mixed picture. In India, gold discounts widened to an eight-month high, reaching up to $39 per ounce compared to $10–$21 last week, reflecting weak consumer interest due to record-high prices. Looking ahead, India’s gold consumption in 2025 is projected to moderate from last year’s nine-year peak of 802.8 tonnes, with demand estimated between 700-800 tonnes, as high prices weigh on jewelry buying - which makes up 70% of total demand - though investment demand for ETFs, digital gold, and coins remains strong. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by -2.8% to 14,416 contracts while prices rose by Rs.216. Gold is now supported at Rs.87,660, with a further dip potentially testing Rs.87,330. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.88,315, and a breakout could push prices to Rs.88,640.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 87330-88640.
* Gold climbed, hitting a fresh record high and testing the $3,000 milestone,
* Support seen amid driven by risk aversion and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
* Recent US PPI and CPI data signaled easing price pressures in February, giving the Fed more room to cut rates


Silver
Silver prices inched up by 0.19% to settle at Rs.100,738, driven by safe-haven demand amid escalating US-EU trade tensions and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts following weaker-than-expected US inflation data. President Trump’s threat of 200% tariffs on European alcoholic imports, in retaliation to the EU’s 50% tariff on American whiskey, fueled market uncertainty. Meanwhile, US producer prices remained flat in February, with consumer inflation rising only 0.2%, below forecasts, reinforcing rate cut bets. Jobless claims fell, reflecting a still-strong labor market. On the supply front, COMEX silver inventories hit a record 403.2 million ounces, while Hecla Mining, the largest US silver producer, reported a 13% rise in output to 16.2 million ounces - the second-highest in its 134-year history. Despite this, the global silver market is projected to remain in deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, though the deficit is expected to narrow by 19% to 149 million ounces. Industrial demand remains a key pillar, forecast to rise 3% to over 700 million ounces, driven by green economy applications. Retail investment demand is also expected to rise 3%, while jewelry demand may dip 6%, particularly in India due to high local prices. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.11% to 22,965 contracts. Silver now has support at Rs.99,870, with further downside potentially testing Rs.99,000. Resistance stands at Rs.101,805, and a breakout above this could push prices to Rs.102,870.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 99000-102870.
* Silver rose amid rising tariff tensions and growing bets on Fed rate cuts.
* U.S. producer prices were unexpectedly flat in February, while consumer inflation rose just 0.2%
* U.S. jobless claims fell again last week, signaling a still strong labor market.


Crude Oil
Crude oil prices climbed by 0.79% to settle at Rs.5,840, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and reduced hopes for a quick resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin's conditional support for a US-backed ceasefire proposal - with demands that likely delay an agreement - kept supply uncertainty elevated, supporting prices. In the US, crude inventories showed mixed signals. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose to 395.6 million barrels, its highest level since November 2022, with a weekly build of 275,000 barrels. Commercial crude stocks increased by 1.448 million barrels, falling short of the expected 2 million rise. Meanwhile, Cushing storage levels dropped by 1.228 million barrels, reversing the previous week’s gains. Gasoline stocks saw a significant draw of 5.737 million barrels - the largest in five months - far exceeding the anticipated 2 million drop. Distillate inventories also fell by 1.559 million barrels, outpacing the projected 1.3 million decrease, signaling stronger fuel consumption. On the global stage, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its 2025 oil demand growth forecast down by 70,000 barrels per day (bpd) to around 1 million bpd, citing a sluggish macroeconomic environment. Asia, particularly China's petrochemical sector, remains the primary demand driver. Technically, the market saw short covering, with open interest falling by 13.91% to 5,700 contracts while prices rose by Rs.46. Crude oil now holds support at ?5,806, with further downside testing possible at Rs.5,772. Resistance stands at Rs.5,866, and a break above could push prices to Rs.5,892.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5772-5892.
* Crude oil gains due to the diminishing prospects of a quick end to the Ukraine war.
* Oil stocks in US Strategic Petroleum Reserve climb to highest since November 2022, EIA says
* IEA sees global oil market surplus for 2025 as demand disappoints


Natural Gas
Natural gas prices fell by 1.38% to settle at Rs.356.8, driven by near-record output levels and forecasts of milder weather over the next two weeks, which dampened demand expectations. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to decline from 111 bcfd this week to 106 bcfd next week. At the same time, production has climbed to 105.7 bcfd so far in March, surpassing February's record of 105.1 bcfd. Canada, contributing around 8% of total U.S. gas demand in 2024, saw its exports to the U.S. fall to an average of 8.7 bcfd after new tariffs, compared to 9.8 bcfd in the prior period. U.S. utilities withdrew 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage in the week ending March 7, exceeding the market's 50 bcf forecast. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects both supply and demand to hit record highs in 2025, projecting dry gas production to rise from 103.1 bcfd in 2024 to 104.6 bcfd in 2025, reaching 107.3 bcfd by 2026. Technically, the market saw long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.43% to 13,070 contracts while prices dropped Rs.5. Natural gas now has support at Rs.348, with a further test possible at Rs.339.1. Resistance is seen at Rs.363, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs.369.1.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 339.1-369.1.
* Natural gas fell on near record output and predictions of milder weather over the next two weeks.
* US utilities withdrew 62 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas from storage.
* Average gas output has risen to 105.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.


Copper
Copper prices edged up by 0.19% to settle at Rs.899.8, supported by tightening inventories and renewed tariff concerns. LME on-warrant copper stocks dropped to 136,300 tons - the lowest since mid-June - following 11,675 tons of cancellations, signaling more metal earmarked for delivery and likely withdrawals in the coming days. Tariff speculation further fueled bullish sentiment after President Trump signed an executive order to review copper imports, hinting at potential duties that could disrupt supply chains. Citi projected that ex-U.S. copper prices might drop to $8,500 per ton in Q2 as investor positioning unwinds under tariff pressure. Meanwhile, China's copper inventories surged to nearly 270,000 tons - triple the start-of-year levels - driven by rising domestic smelting capacity, reducing the need for imports. Unwrought copper imports into China fell 7.2% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025, while copper concentrate imports ticked up 1.3% to 4.71 million tons over the same period. Global supply dynamics remain tight. Chile, the world’s top copper producer, reported a 2.1% year-on-year decline in January output to 426,889 metric tons. The ICSG reported a global refined copper market deficit of 22,000 tons in December, narrowing from November’s 124,000-ton shortfall, though the full-year picture still shows a surplus of 301,000 tons. Technically, copper is under short covering, with open interest down 4.26% to 5,467 contracts while prices rose Rs.1.7. Key support is at Rs.897.1, with further downside potential to Rs.894.4. Resistance stands at Rs.902.9, and a breakout could push prices to Rs.906.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 894.4-906.
* Copper gained as a decline in LME inventories put the worries about U.S. import tariff policy on pause.
* Data showed on-warrant copper stocks in LME-registered warehouses fell to 136,300 tons, lowest since mid-June
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 4.5% from last Friday.


Zinc
Zinc prices climbed by 0.74% to settle at Rs.280.65, driven by supply constraints after Nyrstar announced a 25% production cut at its Hobart smelter in Australia starting April. The smelter, with a capacity of 260,000 metric tons annually, faces financial struggles from unfavorable raw material market conditions, rising costs, and negative treatment charges. This move, coupled with declining inventories, fueled bullish momentum. LME on-warrant stocks fell sharply to 94,700 tons - the lowest since November 2023 - after 42,575 tons were freshly canceled, signaling tightening availability. On the supply side, global mined zinc production dropped for the third consecutive year in 2024, aligned with a 7% decline in Chinese refined zinc output as lower processing rates forced major producers to curb capacity. The Red Dog Mine in Alaska, responsible for 10% of global zinc supply, is also set to scale down production in 2025 due to ore depletion. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported the global zinc market swung to a 62,000-ton deficit in 2024, reversing a surplus of 310,000 tons in 2023, largely driven by lower output in China, Japan, and South Korea. January 2025 saw a modest 1% month-on-month increase in Chinese refined zinc production, though output fell nearly 8% year-on-year, reflecting maintenance and holiday shutdowns in key regions like Hunan, Qinghai, and Inner Mongolia. February’s production is projected to drop over 8% month-on-month. Technically, zinc finds support at Rs.279.2, with further downside to Rs.277.7, while resistance stands at Rs.282.1, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs.283.5.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 277.7-283.5.
* Zinc surged on Nyrstar cutting production in Australia.
* LME on-warrant stocks fell to 94,700 tons, their lowest since November 2023.
* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.9% from last Friday.


Aluminium
Aluminium prices eased by 0.19% to settle at Rs.264.55, driven by profit booking after a recent rally fueled by tightening supply expectations and improving demand prospects. Despite the dip, the market remains fundamentally supported by supply constraints and evolving trade dynamics. China’s aluminium production hit a record 44 million tons in 2024, but output is expected to slow this year as Beijing enforces production caps to control emissions, maintaining the 25 million-ton cap set in 2017. Adding to supply pressures, China's export activity weakened after the government removed tax rebates on overseas sales, prompting producers to focus on domestic markets. Meanwhile, demand optimism strengthened after China announced a record budget deficit and increased special bond issuance to support economic recovery, which is likely to boost aluminium consumption in construction and infrastructure. Global primary aluminium production rose 2.7% year-on-year in January to 6.252 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). December’s production in China increased by 4.2% year-on-year to 3.77 million metric tons, though daily output slipped by 1.7% from November. Higher costs squeezed margins, with Chinese aluminium producers facing average losses of 687 yuan per ton - the first industry-wide losses in three years, per Antaike data. Technically, aluminium remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.71% to 2,855 contracts. Support lies at Rs.263.8, with further downside to Rs.263.1. Resistance is seen at Rs.265.4, and a breakout could push prices toward Rs.266.3.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 263.1-266.3.
* Aluminium dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid lower supply expectation
* Aluminium inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 3% from last Friday.
* Global primary aluminium output in January rose 2.7% year on year to 6.252 million tonnes


Cottoncandy
Cottoncandy prices edged up by 0.15% to settle at Rs.52,870, supported by supply concerns after the Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised its 2024-25 crop estimate down by 2% to 295.30 lakh bales, reflecting lower yields in central India. This marks a notable drop from last season's 327.45 lakh bales, driven by a 10% decline in cultivation area. The government also trimmed its projection to 294.25 lakh bales, signaling tighter domestic supply.  Imports are projected to double to 32 lakh bales for the 2024-25 season, up from 15.20 lakh bales last year, with 22 lakh bales already imported by February-end. Despite stable domestic consumption estimates of 315 lakh bales, exports are forecasted to drop by 40% to 17 lakh bales, contributing to lower closing stocks of 23.49 lakh bales - down from 30.19 lakh bales last season. However, mill buying remains limited due to sufficient existing stocks, capping price surges. Globally, Brazil’s cotton production is set to rise 1.6% to 3.7616 million tons, with a 4.8% expansion in planting area, boosting supply prospects. Meanwhile, the U.S. balance sheet saw minimal adjustments, with a slight reduction in domestic mill use and higher ending stocks. Technically, Cottoncandy is under short covering, with open interest down by 2.03% to 241 contracts. Support lies at Rs.52,780, with a break potentially testing Rs.52,680. Resistance is at Rs.52,990, and a push higher could see prices challenge Rs.53,100.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 52680-53100.
* Cotton gains as CAI has further reduced its 2024-25 crop estimate by 2 per cent to 295.30 lakh bales.
* The government in its second advance estimates, reduced the cotton crop projection by 1.5 per cent to 294.25 lakh bales
* CAI expects the cotton pressing to be lower by 4 lakh bales in Gujarat and 3 lakh bales in Maharashtra.
* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 25444.55 Rupees dropped by -0.12 percent.


Turmeric
Turmeric prices surged by 3.11% to settle at 11,754, driven by concerns over lower crop yields, particularly in the Nanded region, where smaller rhizomes and crop rot have impacted productivity. Yields are projected to decline by 10-15%, though final confirmation awaits peak harvests in key growing areas. Despite an increase in turmeric acreage - reaching 3.30 lakh hectares, a 10% rise from last year’s 3 lakh hectares - untimely rains have tempered expectations for higher overall production. As a result, output is likely to stay around last year’s 10.75 lakh tonnes, with a possible fluctuation of 3-5%. On the export front, turmeric has shown impressive performance. Exports from April to December 2024 surged 13% to 136,921 tonnes, compared to 121,170 tonnes during the same period in 2023. December exports alone rose 20.43% from November, and a significant 46.94% year-on-year jump from December 2023. This sustained global demand supports price strength. Meanwhile, imports for the same period rose sharply by 84.35% to 19,644 tonnes, reflecting potential domestic supply shortfalls. However, December saw a month-on-month import decline of 44.66%, signaling a slowdown in external arrivals. Technically, the turmeric market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping by 2.33% to 12,560 contracts, while prices climbed 354 rupees. Key support is at 11,364, with a dip below potentially testing 10,974. On the upside, resistance is pegged at 12,000, and a breakout could push prices toward 12,246, driven by ongoing supply concerns and robust export performance.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 10974-12246.
* Turmeric gained as new crop yields are expected to be 10-15% lower this year
* Support also seen amid concerns over slow growth of rhizomes and low yield estimates persist.
* However upside seen limited as arrival of new turmeric crop has started.
* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 12241.75 Rupees gained by 0.94 percent.


Jeera
Jeera prices edged up by 0.24% to settle at 20,830, supported by a delayed start to the new crop in Gujarat due to unfavorable weather. Sowing in major producing regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan began about a month late, tightening early supplies. Despite this, upside momentum was limited by subdued demand and sufficient carry-forward stocks. Farmers still hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, with an estimated 3-4 lakh bags expected to trade before the season ends, leaving about 16 lakh bags in reserve. Production for the current season is projected to remain on par with last year, thanks to improved crop conditions and healthy sowing levels. India’s cumin output climbed to 8.6 lakh tonnes across 11.87 lakh hectares in 2023-24, significantly higher than the previous year’s 5.77 lakh tonnes from 9.37 lakh hectares. Tensions in the Middle East have further bolstered export demand, particularly from Europe and other regions gearing up for festive seasons. Exports from April to December 2024 surged by 70.72% to 165,084 tonnes compared to 96,701 tonnes in the same period in 2023. December alone saw a 56.45% month-on-month export rise. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, reflected by a 3.47% rise in open interest to 2,859 contracts alongside a price increase of 50 rupees. Key support is at 20,720, with a drop potentially testing 20,610. On the upside, resistance is seen at 20,970, with a breakout possibly leading to 21,110.
 

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 20610-21110.
* Jeera gains as the start of the new crop of cumin in Gujarat has been delayed by about a month.
* However upside seen limited as demand is low and the current export business is being met from the available stock.
* Jeera exports during Apr-Dec 2024, rose by 70.72 percent at 165,084.40 tonnes as compared to 96,701.43 tonnes exported during Apr- Dec 2023
* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20886.05 Rupees dropped by -0.01 percent.

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