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Gold

Gold prices declined by 0.65% to settle at Rs149,050, reflecting pressure from persistent inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving U.S.–Iran developments, added uncertainty, but failed to support bullion as monetary tightening expectations dominated sentiment. The widening U.S. goods deficit to $87.9 billion in March further highlighted macro imbalances, even as exports rose to a record $211.5 billion, led by industrial supplies. Physical market dynamics remained mixed but supportive in key regions. In India, gold premiums surged to over two-and-a-half-month highs, reaching up to $15 per ounce due to supply disruptions after import delays left bullion stranded at customs. Seasonal demand during Akshaya Tritiya provided limited support, though buying remained below typical levels. In China, premiums strengthened to $9–$12 per ounce, reflecting improved demand, while other Asian hubs like Hong Kong, Japan, and Singapore saw relatively stable pricing trends. On the global front, demand trends remained constructive. Total gold demand rose 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 tonnes in Q1 2026, driven by strong investment flows and steady central bank purchases. Notably, bar and coin demand surged 42% to 473.6 tonnes, marking the highest level since 2013, with China leading the surge. Meanwhile, London vault holdings increased 1.4% to 9,339 tonnes, indicating continued institutional accumulation. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.78% to 9,539, signaling new short positions. Gold has immediate support at Rs147,495, with a downside risk toward Rs145,935. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs151,070, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs153,085.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 145935-153085.

* Gold prices fell as inflation ‌worries tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East clouded the outlook for monetary.

* The Fed held the funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% for a third meeting, as the outlook for the rest of the year remains uncertain.

* Global gold demand rose 2% year-on-year to 1,230.9 metric tons in the first quarter of 2026

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply by 1.75% to settle at Rs233,200, primarily driven by profit booking and long liquidation despite persistent geopolitical tensions. Concerns over stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz heightened inflation fears due to potential energy supply disruptions, but failed to sustain bullish momentum. On the macro front, U.S. housing starts surged 10.8% to an annualized rate of 1.502 million in March 2026, indicating resilience in construction activity, while building permits dropped 10.8% to 1.372 million, reflecting caution in future project pipelines. Additional pressure came from broader economic indicators, with the U.S. goods deficit widening to $87.9 billion, even as exports rose 2.5% to a record $211.5 billion, led by industrial supplies. However, strong physical demand trends, particularly from China, provided underlying support. China’s silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tonnes in March—nearly three times the 10-year average—driven by aggressive retail investment demand and stockpiling by photovoltaic (PV) manufacturers ahead of policy changes. Elevated domestic prices in China also encouraged global arbitrage flows into the region via Hong Kong. From a supply perspective, silver holdings in London vaults increased by 1.6% to 27,487 tonnes, indicating steady institutional accumulation. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest plunging 40.42% to 1,603, signaling exit of bullish positions. Silver is currently finding support at Rs230,530, with further downside risk toward Rs227,865 if this level breaks. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs237,330, and a sustained move above this could drive prices toward Rs241,465 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 227865-241465.

* Silver dropped as stalled US-Iran peace talks and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz fueled concerns over rising inflation.

* President Donald Trump said Iran has called on the US to lift its naval blockade of the strait while negotiations to end the conflict continue.

* US housing starts rose 10.8% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million in March 2026

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged sharply by 6.76% to settle at Rs10,126, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and supply-side disruptions in the Middle East. Reports that the U.S. plans to extend its blockade of Iranian ports intensified concerns over prolonged supply constraints, especially following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February. The disruption has effectively removed access to nearly 500 million barrels of crude and refined products, tightening global availability despite some easing in spot premiums as refiners tap inventories and reduce processing rates. Market sentiment was further influenced by structural developments within OPEC+, as the United Arab Emirates’ unexpected decision to exit the group raised uncertainty, although Russia reaffirmed its commitment to the alliance. On the demand side, OPEC marginally lowered its global oil demand forecast for Q2 2026 by 500,000 barrels per day to 105.07 million bpd, citing temporary weakness linked to geopolitical instability, though full-year demand growth projections remain unchanged. Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration reflected mixed signals. Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a draw, while stocks at Cushing increased by 806,000 barrels. However, product markets remained tight, with gasoline inventories falling by 4.6 million barrels and distillates dropping by 3.4 million barrels. Refinery runs declined slightly, and net crude imports increased by 1.21 million barrels per day. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 19.03% to 18,936, indicating strong long build-up. Crude oil has immediate support at Rs9,611, with downside risk toward Rs9,097. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs10,429, and a breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs10,733 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9097-10733.

* Crude oil prices rose on reports the U.S. will extend its blockade of Iranian ports.

* Trump urges Iran to sign a deal after report suggests US may extend blockade

* The Kremlin said that Russia planned to stay in OPEC+ despite a decision by the United Arab Emirates to leave.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 2.1% to settle at Rs252.1, pressured by expectations of mild weather conditions that are enabling higher-than-normal storage injections. Softer seasonal demand has weighed on sentiment, with forecasts indicating inventory levels could rise to around 8% above normal in the near term. Additionally, projected demand in the U.S. Lower 48 states is expected to ease from 101.9 bcfd this week to 100.4 bcfd next week, reflecting reduced consumption requirements. However, the downside remained limited due to tightening supply dynamics and robust export demand. U.S. gas output has shown signs of moderation, averaging 110.1 bcfd in April so far, slightly below March levels, with daily production falling nearly 3.8 bcfd to a 12-week low of 108.3 bcfd. Lower spot prices have prompted key producers to temporarily curb output, providing some underlying support. At the same time, near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continue to act as a stabilizing factor for the market. Inventory data further highlighted the oversupply narrative. U.S. utilities injected 103 bcf of gas into storage for the week ended April 17, significantly above market expectations of 94 bcf and well above both last year’s 77 bcf build and the five-year average of 64 bcf. Total stockpiles climbed to 2.063 trillion cubic feet, standing 7.4% above year-ago levels and 7.1% above the seasonal average. Looking ahead, the EIA projects production to reach record highs in 2026, while demand is expected to moderate slightly. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 16.15% to 34,851, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is seen at Rs249, with a break below potentially testing Rs246. Resistance stands at Rs256, and a move above this level could push prices toward Rs260.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 246-260.

* Natural gas eased on expectations mild weather will allow energy firms to keep injecting more gas than usual into storage.

* However, downside seen limited amid a drop in output in recent weeks and near-record liquefied natural gas exports.

* Average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states fell to 110.1 bcfd so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March.

Copper

Copper prices edged lower by 0.13% to settle at Rs1,275.3, weighed down by indications of a growing global surplus and macroeconomic headwinds. A stronger dollar, concerns over global growth, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East dampened sentiment, particularly amid softer demand signals from China. Data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) showed a significant surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February, widening sharply from 34,000 tons in January, highlighting imbalance in the refined market. Fundamentally, supply-demand dynamics remain mixed. While global refined copper output stood at 2.26 million tons against consumption of 1.98 million tons in February, near-term support emerged from tightening supply due to smelter maintenance and falling exchange inventories. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks declined 16.3%, reflecting improved domestic offtake, supported by restocking ahead of China’s Labor Day holidays. However, Chinese imports fell 10.9% year-on-year in March, indicating weaker external demand, even as domestic refined production rose 8.7% to 1.33 million tons. On the supply side, global mine production trends were uneven. Peru’s output rose 2.9%, while Chile’s Codelco saw a 9.8% decline, and production at major mines like Escondida fell 7.4%. Conversely, Collahuasi reported a sharp 56.5% increase. Meanwhile, Comex inventories climbed to a record 603,745 short tons, reflecting arbitrage-driven inflows into the U.S. market. Looking ahead, ICSG projects the copper market to shift to a surplus of 96,000 tons in 2026, with slower demand growth and rising secondary supply. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining by 1% to 12,018. Copper has immediate support at Rs1,268.7, with further downside toward Rs1,262.1. Resistance is seen at Rs1,283.7, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs1,292.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1262.1-1292.1.

* Copper dropped as industry data showed the refined copper market was in a significant surplus.

* The global refined copper market was in a 276,000-ton surplus in February - ICSG

* China will step up state backing to expand capacity and upgrade quality in the service sector.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.72% to settle at Rs339.35, pressured by broader weakness across base metals amid concerns over global growth and geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. Additional downside came after Sweden’s Boliden announced plans to resume production at its Garpenberg mine in Q2, raising expectations of incremental supply. However, losses were capped by tightening near-term supply conditions and persistent constraints in raw material availability. Fundamentally, market signals indicate a firm underlying structure. Declining LME inventories and a narrowing cash-to-three-month contango reflect tightening prompt availability. Zinc concentrate treatment charges continued to fall, underscoring limited feedstock supply. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories dropped 1.8%, while port inventories of zinc concentrate fell sharply by 12,100 metric tons week-on-week, reinforcing supply tightness. Ongoing mine disruptions and closures have supported prices, although some relief is expected from the restart of Tara mine and ramp-up at the Kipushi project. On the supply-demand balance, the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January, compared to a deficit in December, according to ILZSG data. Goldman Sachs expects a modest surplus in 2026 driven by higher mine supply and steady demand growth of around 2% annually. However, slower supply growth beyond 2026 could tighten the market again, with China playing a crucial balancing role through domestic production and potential export arbitrage. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 3.52% to 1,943, indicating new short positions. Zinc is finding support at Rs337, with a potential downside toward Rs334.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs343.2, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward Rs346.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 334.5-346.9.

* Zinc prices dropped as Swedish miner Boliden said production at its Garpenberg zinc mine will be resumed in the second quarter.

* Zinc price has already risen too high, expects another slight correction before it starts to rise again in the medium term - Commerzbank

* Falling LME inventories and a narrowing Cash-3M contango signaled a firmer market structure.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged lower by 0.37% to settle at Rs364.65, weighed down by reports that Emirates Global Aluminium’s Jebel Ali smelter is gradually returning to near-normal operations after recent disruptions linked to Middle East tensions. This recovery eased immediate supply concerns. However, downside remained limited as the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz threatens prolonged disruptions to regional supply, keeping the broader market sentiment supported. Fundamentally, the aluminium market continues to reflect tight near-term availability. The LME cash contract traded at a premium of $66 per ton over the three-month benchmark, a sharp reversal from the pre-war discount of $12, signaling strong prompt demand. Market participants have highlighted a potential “black swan” supply shock due to Middle East disruptions, with expectations of significant deficits. Japanese port inventories declined 7.4% to 279,800 tons, while premiums for April–June shipments surged to an 11-year high of $350–$353 per ton. JP Morgan projects a 1.9 million ton global deficit in 2026, driven by a substantial hit to Middle East supply, and sees prices averaging around $3,500–$3,800 per ton with upside risks. On the supply side, global aluminium production rose 0.9% year-on-year in March to 6.302 million tons, while China’s output increased 2.7% to 3.85 million tons. Chinese imports also rose 6.9%, reflecting stronger demand amid elevated prices. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining 5.26% to 3,082, indicating position unwinding. Aluminium is finding support at Rs362, with further downside toward Rs359.3. Resistance is seen at Rs368.9, and a move above this could extend gains toward Rs373.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 359.3-373.1.

* Aluminium dropped after reports EGA's Jebel Ali aluminium smelter running near normal levels

* However downside seen limited as the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz threatens a prolonged disruption to supply.

* Global primary aluminium output in March rose 0.9% year-on-year to 6.302 million tons - IAI

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged lower by -0.14% to settle at 15,994, pressured by increased arrivals across key mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli, which created a temporary supply glut. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to meet liquidity needs ahead of Kharif sowing, while higher arrivals of moisture-rich, late-harvest crops led to discounting in average-quality produce. Despite near-term pressure, underlying fundamentals remain supportive. Arrivals in parts of Maharashtra and Telangana are still below seasonal norms, indicating a tighter supply backdrop. Quality concerns, including rhizome rot in low-lying areas, have reduced the availability of premium “Double Polished” varieties, while high-grade Salem Fali continues to command strong premiums near Rs20,000 per quintal. Stockists and farmers in key regions like Sangli and Nizamabad are holding back supplies, anticipating higher price realization. Additionally, carry-forward stocks are estimated at around 15 lakh bags, significantly lower than last season, tightening overall availability. Export demand remains stable, with Apr–Feb shipments up 1% YoY at 163,336 tonnes, while imports declined sharply by 40%, reflecting reduced reliance on overseas supply. Support is also seen from EU demand for IPM-certified turmeric and active buying from Bangladesh. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest declining by -3.72% to 16,060, indicating position unwinding. Immediate support is seen at 15,892, with a break below likely testing 15,792. On the upside, resistance is placed at 16,156, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 16,320.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15792-16320.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

* Lingering tensions in the Middle East continue to complicate export logistics, causing some buyers to defer commitments.

* The absence of fresh weather disruptions during the post-harvest phase has effectively removed the "weather risk premium."

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15573.9 Rupees dropped by -0.57 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices advanced by 1.77% to settle at 20,680, supported by concerns over crop damage and tightening availability of premium quality supplies. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan have impacted standing crops at the harvest stage, raising fears of reduced “A-grade” output. Additionally, unseasonal rains across North-West India delayed drying and processing, creating a temporary supply gap and supporting prices. Fundamentally, the market reflects a mixed supply scenario. While daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remain high at around 28,500 bags, creating near-term pressure, the quality of arrivals has become a key differentiator. Lower availability of high-grade “Sortex” quality carryover stocks and crop damage in Gujarat due to blight disease are supporting premium pricing. Production estimates indicate a significant decline, with total output projected at 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced acreage and lower yields. Globally, production estimates in key countries like China, Syria, and Turkey have also been revised lower due to adverse weather conditions. However, export performance remains weak, with Apr–Feb shipments down 15% YoY, though a rebound in February exports signals improving demand. Expectations of increased Chinese buying activity are also lending support to sentiment. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining by -6.55% to 7,914, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Immediate support is seen at 20,330, with a break below likely testing 19,980. On the upside, resistance is placed at 20,940, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward 21,200.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19980-21200.

* Jeera gains as recent thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan have damaged the standing crop at the harvest stage.

* Sudden unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed the drying and processing of the new crop, creating a temporary supply gap

* Daily arrivals at the Unjha mandi have stabilized at high level, approx. 28,500 bags, creating a visible supply glut.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20707.65 Rupees dropped by -0.36 percent

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views