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Nifty :25727

Technical Outlook

Day that was… Equity benchmark staged a spectacular comeback, fueled by a landmark India-US trade announcement. Nifty settled at 25727 up 2.5.%. Market breadth turned extreme positive with an A/D ration of 5:1. Broader market has relatively outperformed benchmark with Mid and Small cap index up 3% each. Sectorally, all indices closed in green wherein Realty, BFSI and Pharma were the top gainers.

Technical Outlook

* Index opened with a positive gap up and witnessed highest percentage wise closing since May 2025. The daily price action formed a strong candle with a gap of 600 points above its previous session high, indicating inherent strength.

* Key point to highlight is that the entire decline of the previous fourweeks was retraced within a single session, indicating a faster pace of retracement, which has witnessed for the first time in the past one and a half years, indicating a sign of a structural trend reversal. With momentum continuing to strengthen, the index is well-positioned to gradually retest its all-time high of 26,350 in the coming weeks. On the downside, the 25,000-25,200 zone is expected to evolve into a strong demand area, as it coincides with the 80% retracement of the recent up-move (24,571-26,341) and 200-day EMA. Consequently, any pullback from current levels should be viewed as a buy-on-dips opportunity, with strong support firmly placed around the 25,000 mark.

* Historical analysis of the past three decades, indicates that postBudget periods have delivered an average return of around 10% over the subsequent three months, reinforcing a constructive mediumterm outlook.

* Since the post-Covid lows, intermediate corrections on four distinct occasions have found strong footing in the vicinity of the 20-month EMA, each instance followed by a ~20% advance over the subsequent four months. The current 20-month EMA is placed around 24,300, closely aligning with the August swing low of 24,338, thereby reinforcing this zone as a strong structural support going ahead.

* % of Nifty 500 stocks has improved to 38% from earlier week reading of 28%, indicating broad based participation

Key Monitorable:

a) RBI Policy

b) US Dollar Index: Past two week’s sharp decline has hauled it at two years low. Breakdown below 96 would result into extended correction.

c) Brent Crude has retreated from its long-term trend line resistance placed at 72. As long as it stays below this level corrective bias likely to continue..

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Stochastic bullish crossover from oversold territory, indicating trend reversal

* Levels- Buy around 50% retracement of previous two-days range

Nifty Bank :60041

Technical Outlook

Day that was:

Bank Nifty surged to a fresh all-time high and closed the session firmly at 60,042, registering a robust gain of 2.4%. The broader banking pack echoed this strength, with both the Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Private Bank indices advancing 2.5% each.

Technical Outlook:

* Following the landmark India–US trade agreement, the index witnessed a powerful gap-up opening and recorded a new lifetime high, briefly crossing the 61,700 mark. However, latesession profit booking led to some cooling off from higher levels. On the daily chart, the price action resulted in a strong candle with a positive gap, indicating some breather after a sharp gap up.

* Technically, Bank Nifty has delivered a decisive breakout above its prior swing high of 60,400 and has retraced the preceding four-week corrective decline within just two trading sessions, highlighting an exceptionally strong pace of recovery. While sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive on the back of the trade deal, the index is expected to continue its upward trajectory within a well-defined broader structural framework.

* Hence, any corrective dips from current levels should be viewed as buying opportunities. A strong demand zone is placed around 58,500, which aligns with the 80% retracement of the recent upmove.

* Meanwhile, the Nifty PSU Bank Index formed a bearish candle with a positive gap while sustaining a higher-high–higher-low structure, indicating follow-through buying above Monday’s high. The index also managed to close above its 20-day EMA, reinforcing near-term strength. Going ahead, the index appears well positioned to challenge the 9,170 level in the coming weeks

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Rebounded from former resistance now turned as support as per change of polarity principal.

* Levels -Buy around 50% retracement of last two-day upmove(58154-61229)

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