Higher U.S. Cotton Production Raises Stocks, Pressuring Price Outlook by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
The 2026/27 U.S. cotton outlook shows higher production and ending stocks, driven by improved yields and larger crops across Delta states. Production is forecast to increase 2% to 13.44 million bales, with the national average yield rising 2% to 790 pounds per harvested acre. Ending stocks are projected 6% higher at 3.80 million bales, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio to 27.5%. The season-average upland cotton farm price forecast is lowered to 77 cents per pound. Globally, production, consumption, exports and ending stocks are revised higher, with increased output from Brazil and the United States supporting supply growth.
Key Highlights
- U.S. cotton production rises 2% to 13.44 million bales for 2026/27.
- National average yield increases 2% to 790 pounds per harvested acre.
- U.S. ending stocks climb 6% to 3.80 million bales, lifting the stocks-to-use ratio to 27.5%.
- U.S. upland cotton season-average farm price forecast falls 1 cent to 77 cents per pound.
- Global ending stocks increase by over 800,000 bales, supported by higher beginning stocks and increased U.S. and Indian stocks.
The 2026/27 U.S. cotton outlook points to increased production and higher ending stocks, potentially weighing on the domestic price outlook. The season-average farm price forecast for upland cotton has been reduced by 1 cent from the previous month to 77 cents per pound. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise to 27.5%, compared with 26.1% last month, reflecting a more comfortable supply position. The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet remains unchanged, although its season-average farm price estimate has edged up to 62.2 cents per pound.
U.S. cotton production for 2026/27 is forecast to increase 2% to 13.44 million bales, while the national average yield is raised 2% to 790 pounds per harvested acre. Larger crops across all Delta states are driving the increase, while production changes in other states largely offset one another. With consumption, exports, imports and beginning stocks unchanged, the larger crop translates into a 6% increase in projected ending stocks to 3.80 million bales.
Globally, the 2026/27 cotton outlook has also strengthened across production, consumption, trade and stocks. World production is raised by more than 600,000 bales, mainly due to higher output in Brazil and the United States, partly offset by lower production in Argentina. Consumption increases by just over 160,000 bales, supported by higher demand projections for Vietnam, Malaysia, Guatemala and Nicaragua.
Global exports are projected to rise by nearly 500,000 bales, primarily reflecting stronger Brazilian shipments. Global ending stocks increase by more than 800,000 bales, mainly because of higher beginning stocks and increased ending stocks in the United States and India.
Rising U.S. production and global inventories point to improved cotton availability, while higher consumption and exports provide partial support to the 2026/27 market outlook.
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