Rising U.S. Sugar Stocks Reflect Higher Imports and Lower Demand by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
U.S. sugar ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected to increase by 199,000 short tons, raw value (STRV), to 2.231 million, supported by higher imports and reduced domestic use. Louisiana cane sugar production rises by 53,000 STRV, partly offset by lower beet sugar output. Imports increase by 133,754 STRV, while deliveries for human consumption decline to 12.392 million STRV. For 2026/27, U.S. sugar supplies rise to 14.387 million STRV, with ending stocks projected at 1.865 million and the stocks-to-use ratio improving to 14.9%. Mexico’s 2025/26 exports increase to 1 million metric tonnes.
Key Highlights
- U.S. sugar ending stocks for 2025/26 rise 199,000 STRV to 2.231 million.
- U.S. sugar imports increase 133,754 STRV, led by high-tier tariff and re-export imports.
- Human-consumption deliveries fall to 12.392 million STRV as the pace of demand slows.
- U.S. 2026/27 ending stocks reach 1.865 million STRV, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising to 14.9%.
- Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar exports increase to 1 million metric tonnes, reducing projected ending stocks.
The U.S. sugar market outlook points to higher ending stocks for 2025/26, reflecting increased supplies and reduced domestic use. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 199,000 short tons, raw value (STRV), to 2.231 million. The supply increase, combined with slower deliveries for human consumption, indicates a more comfortable near-term stock position. For 2026/27, the stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 14.9%, up from 13.5% in the previous estimate.
U.S. sugar imports for 2025/26 are increased by 133,754 STRV, mainly due to higher raw sugar high-tier tariff imports and re-export imports. High-tier tariff imports rise by 91,608 STRV to 606,057, while re-export imports increase by 58,696 STRV to 398,831. Louisiana cane sugar production is raised by 53,000 STRV following stronger-than-expected September output of 119,945 STRV. However, beet sugar production is reduced by 37,730 STRV because processors reported lower early-season production for August and September. Use declines by 49,615 STRV as deliveries for human consumption are lowered to 12.392 million STRV amid a slower pace of demand.
For 2026/27, U.S. sugar supplies are projected at 14.387 million STRV. Higher beginning stocks and lower use more than offset reduced production. Beet sugar production is cut by 27,200 STRV to 4.742 million, reflecting lower national sugarbeet yields and early-season production changes. Louisiana cane sugar production is reduced to 2.208 million STRV, while Florida production remains unchanged. Ending stocks are forecast at 1.865 million STRV.
In Mexico, 2025/26 sugar exports are raised to 1 million metric tonnes, reducing ending stocks to 1.184 million tonnes. Lower beginning stocks for 2026/27 imply reduced total exports and a slight decline in ending stocks.
Higher U.S. imports and slower domestic deliveries strengthen near-term sugar stocks, while lower production forecasts limit supply growth for 2026/27.
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