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According to a recent media article, there is a decline in medical visas provided to Bangladesh tourists. Below are some takeaways from the article.

* Big dip in medical visas handed out: Since August, India has handed out fewer than 1,000 medical visas each working day, down from a figure of 5,000 to 7,000. In 2023, India issued more than 2 million visas to Bangladeshis, most of them on medical grounds, government data from both countries shows. But its withdrawal since has opened an enticing gap for China.

* Why the decline in visas: India has repeatedly cited staff shortages in its Dhaka embassy for the visa problems, according to diplomats and Indian government sources. Additionally, they mentioned that they were concerned about staff security.

* Revert to mean only after "stability in Bangladesh": According to the media article, Indian government sources said they wanted Bangladeshis with medical conditions to secure access to treatment in India, adding that staff would be added to missions in the neighbouring country when there is "stability in Bangladesh”.

* Impact:

* In our view, it seems that the shortage of visas is unlikely to be resolved in the near term. Since the issue revolves around diplomatic ties b/w. the two countries

* a timeline for resolution is unclear.

* Companies with a larger share of revenue from international patients could be impacted, unless they pivot and cater to patients from other geographies

* Max Healthcare, Fortis, Medanta have the highest exposure to international patients from our coverage. However, these are unlikely to be impacted due to diversified endgeographies of patients.

* GPT Healthcare’s FY24 contribution from international patients was 2-3% (JMFe), with patients largely only from Bangladesh. Going ahead, contribution from international patients will likely be negligible, in our view.

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