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Gold

Gold prices rose by 0.4% yesterday, closing at 71500, as investors closely analyzed the trajectory of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in light of US PCE data meeting market expectations. The steady increase in both the monthly key rate and monthly core rate underscored stability in inflation, prompting market participants to reassess their outlook on interest rates. In India, physical gold dealers experienced a notable shift as premiums returned for the first time in nearly two months, driven by a pullback in domestic prices that enticed buyers. Conversely, premiums in China softened, reflecting changing dynamics in consumer demand. China's gold consumption surged in the first quarter of 2024, driven by a significant increase in purchases of gold bars and coins, fueled by heightened safe-haven demand. Additionally, China's gold output from domestically sourced materials saw a modest rise, indicating sustained domestic production. Moreover, China's net gold imports via Hong Kong surged in March, highlighting robust demand despite global economic uncertainties. The Chinese central bank also bolstered its gold reserves, adding 160,000 troy ounces in March, signaling confidence in the precious metal's value as a store of wealth. From a technical standpoint, the gold market witnessed fresh buying momentum, with a modest increase in open interest and prices climbing by 286 rupees. Support levels for gold are identified at 71220 and 70945, while resistance is anticipated at 71760, with a potential breakthrough indicating further upward movement towards 72025.

Trading Ideas:
* Gold trading range for the day is 70945-72025.
* Gold steadied as investors continued to evaluate the potential monetary policy path by the Fed
* Physical gold dealers in India charged premiums for the first time in nearly two months.
* China's Jan – March gold consumption climbs nearly 6%, says gold association

Silver

Silver prices exhibited a marginal uptick of 0.1% to settle at 82496, as investors continued to scrutinize the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory following the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. While both monthly key and core inflation rates aligned with expectations, annual rates surpassed estimates, underscoring persistent price risks highlighted in earlier reports. Despite market expectations dwindling to just one Fed interest rate reduction this year, down from three cuts anticipated previously, elevated interest rates pose a challenge to demand for non-yielding assets like silver. However, the metal's decline found some support from its safe-haven appeal amidst lingering uncertainty. Throughout the week, silver faced pressure, poised for a nearly 4% loss, attributed to eased tensions in the Middle East and growing prospects of a delayed loosening cycle by the Fed. Additionally, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the US was revised lower to 77.2 in April 2024, while the US economy's lackluster performance in Q1 2024, expanding by only 1.6%, the lowest in two years, added to the cautious sentiment. On a positive note, personal spending in the United States exceeded market expectations, growing by 0.8% in March 2024, maintaining the same pace as in February. Technically, the silver market witnessed renewed buying interest, with a notable 23.08% surge in open interest, settling at 20624, accompanied by a price increase of 79 rupees. Looking ahead, support for silver is anticipated at 82035, with potential downside targets at 81575, while resistance levels may materialize around 83040, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing of 83585.

Trading Ideas:
* Silver trading range for the day is 81575-83585.
* Silver steadied as investors continued to assess the Fed's monetary path.
* Both monthly key and core inflation rates increased in line with expectations, but annual rates beat the estimates.
* Markets are currently betting on only one Fed interest rate reduction this year compared to three cuts seen last week.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 1.27% yesterday, closing at 6999, buoyed by an optimistic demand outlook and ongoing supply concerns stemming from tensions in the Middle East. The market found support at lower levels following remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who expressed confidence in economic growth and anticipated a moderation in inflation after temporary factors weighed on the economy's performance in the previous quarter. The Energy Information Administration's report revealed a significant unexpected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, coupled with decreases in gasoline stocks and an increase in distillate inventories. Crude stocks plummeted by 6.4 million barrels to 453.6 million barrels, with a notable drawdown observed at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub. Gasoline stocks fell by 600,000 barrels, defying forecasts for a larger draw, prompting a positive reaction in U.S. gasoline futures. However, distillate stockpiles saw an unexpected increase, diverging from market expectations for a decline. Technically, the crude oil market experienced fresh buying momentum, with a notable rise in open interest and prices climbing by 88 rupees. Support levels for crude oil are identified at 6957 and 6915, while resistance is anticipated at 7042, with a potential breakthrough signaling further upside towards 7085. Traders should closely monitor key support and resistance levels, alongside changes in inventory data and geopolitical developments, to navigate potential price fluctuations and market sentiment in the crude oil sector.

Trading Ideas:
* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6915-7085.
* Crude oil gained underpinned by an improving demand outlook and persistent supply risks related to the Middle East conflict.
* Support seen at lower levels as a top U.S. official expressed optimism over economic growth.
* U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell sharply last week, while gasoline stockpiles slipped lower and distillate inventories rose.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices experienced a notable decline of -2.9% to settle at 160.5, primarily influenced by reduced feedgas to Freeport LNG's Texas export terminal and a substantial surplus of gas in storage. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a higher-than-expected injection of 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage for the week ending April 19, surpassing market forecasts. Meanwhile, gas output in the Lower 48 US states dipped to an average of 96.8 bcfd in April from 100.8 bcfd in March, reflecting a broader trend of declining production since the record high of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023. LNG feedgas decreased to 11.3 bcfd, with flow to Freeport LNG plummeting from 0.5 bcfd to 0.1 bcfd, although the first tanker departed from the Texas export terminal, hinting at potential recovery after an earlier outage this month. Notably, US gas production has contracted by approximately 10% in 2024, attributed to operational cutbacks by energy firms like EQT and Chesapeake Energy in response to subdued prices in February and March. Technically, the natural gas market witnessed renewed selling pressure, with a significant 20.45% rise in open interest, settling at 44492, alongside a price decline of -4.8 rupees. Looking ahead, support for natural gas is anticipated at 158, with potential downside targets at 155.6, while resistance levels may manifest around 165, with a breakthrough possibly leading to further testing of 169.6.

Trading Ideas:
* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 155.6-169.6.
* Natural gas slipped weighed down by a drop in feedgas to Freeport LNG's Texas export terminal.
* EIA said utilities injected 92 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage
* Gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states had fallen to an average of 96.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April from 100.8 bcfd in March.

Copper

Copper prices saw a notable uptick of 0.6% yesterday, closing at 857.95, driven by mounting concerns over supply constraints and optimistic long-term demand outlooks. The market witnessed renewed speculative buying as issues in copper ore mining persisted, with disruptions at major mines such as Cobre Panama and operational challenges in Zambia and South America due to power shortages and political unrest. Lower margins for Chinese smelters, coupled with the reluctance to invest in new mines due to high costs, prompted industry groups to contemplate a 10% reduction in output for the year. Amidst this backdrop, M&A activities among industry players, exemplified by BHP's bid to acquire Anglo American, gained traction as alternatives to initiating new projects. Copper's pivotal role in global electrification efforts continued to drive fund buying, with optimistic forecasts suggesting robust demand growth. Chilean President Gabriel Boric anticipated a gradual increase in production at state-run miner Codelco, projecting a rise in copper prices. Additionally, Trafigura predicted a surge in copper consumption over the next decade, fueled by flourishing activity in electric vehicles, power infrastructure, AI, and automation sectors. On the production front, China's copper cathode output demonstrated resilience, recording a notable increase from the previous month and exceeding expectations. Technically, the copper market experienced fresh buying momentum, with open interest rising by 4.26% and prices climbing by 5.1 rupees. Support levels for copper are identified at 854.1 and 850.1, while resistance is anticipated at 862.2, with a potential breakthrough signaling further gains towards 866.3.

Trading Ideas:
* Copper trading range for the day is 850.1-866.3.
* Copper surged as growing supply worries and bullish long-term demand spurred a fresh round of speculative buying.
* Persistent issues in copper ore mining threatened inputs for smelters and treatment plants
* Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 4.2% from last Friday, the exchange said.

Zinc

Zinc prices experienced a marginal decline of -0.02% to settle at 252.3, driven by profit booking activities following recent gains fueled by fund buying and concerns regarding supply. Data from China revealed a notable increase in refined zinc production, surpassing expectations with a month-on-month growth of 4.57% and a year-on-year rise of 1.63% for the first quarter. Positive signals emerged from China's manufacturing sector, with factory activity expanding at the fastest pace in over a year in March, complementing similar growth in the US manufacturing sector and Germany's industrial output, which exceeded market expectations. Research agency BMI projected a continued rebound in refined zinc production in 2024, building on strong growth observed in 2023. Despite widening annual production deficits in 2021 and 2022, significant growth in China, the leading producer, has contributed to this trend. However, BMI forecasts a surplus of 192,000 tonnes in 2024 following a surplus of 196,000 tonnes in 2023. Additionally, the anticipated resumption of Glencore’s Nordenham smelter in Germany and the completion of Norway’s Odda mine expansion later in the year are poised to further bolster global zinc production. While global zinc consumption is expected to rise by 2.6% in 2024, sluggish growth in the world economy may temper overall demand. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed long liquidation, marked by a drop of -6.36% in open interest, settling at 3619, alongside a slight decline in prices by -0.05 rupees. Support for Zinc is anticipated at 249, with potential downside targets at 245.7, while resistance levels may materialize around 256, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing of 259.7.

Trading Ideas:
* Zinc trading range for the day is 245.7-259.7.
* Zinc dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid fund buying and worries about supply.
* Research agency BMI, said refined zinc production growth will continue to rebound in 2024.
* The anticipated resumption of Glencore’s Nordenham smelter and Norway’s Odda mine expansion later in the year is set to bolster global zinc production.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices saw a marginal uptick of 0.06% yesterday, closing at 235.55, following a period of profit booking after previous gains driven by supply concerns amid sanctions on Russian metals. The market responded to regulatory actions from Washington and London, which restricted the acceptance of Russia-made aluminium, copper, and nickel to exchange warehouses, leading to ongoing withdrawals from LME-registered warehouses and reducing available aluminium stocks to their lowest levels since August 2022. China's robust demand was highlighted by a substantial surge in imports of unwrought aluminium and products, jumping 89.8% in March and totaling 1.1 million tons for the first quarter of 2024. Concurrently, China's primary aluminium output increased by 7.4% year-on-year in March, reaching 3.59 million metric tons, driven by rising prices and expanding manufacturing activity. The resurgence in China's manufacturing sector, evidenced by its first expansion in six months, bolstered demand for aluminium, which is integral to various industries such as automotive, construction, and packaging. Notably, China's aluminium production for the first three months of 2024 grew by 6.8% compared to the same period last year, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Technically, the aluminium market witnessed renewed buying interest, with open interest rising by 6.06% and prices edging up by 0.15 rupees. Support levels for aluminium are identified at 234.2 and 232.7, while resistance is anticipated at 237.5, with a potential breakthrough signaling further gains towards 239.3. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels, alongside regulatory actions and demand trends, to assess potential price movements and market sentiment in the aluminium sector.

Trading Ideas:
* Aluminium trading range for the day is 232.7-239.3.
* Aluminium settled flat as support seen on supply concerns.
* LME aluminium stocks reduced to 171,200 tonnes, representing the weakest level since August 2022.
* China's March aluminium imports jump 90% on – year

Cotton candy 

Cottoncandy prices saw a decline of -0.48% to settle at 58340, driven by subdued demand and concerns over a growing global carryover. While the USDA's weekly export sales report indicated a notable increase in net sales for the 2023/2024 season, up 79% from the previous week, upside potential was restrained by expectations of a better crop outlook in countries like Australia. The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected a rise in cotton-producing area, production, consumption, and trade for the upcoming season, 2024-25. In India, cotton stocks are anticipated to plummet by nearly 31% in 2023/24, reaching their lowest level in over three decades due to reduced production and rising consumption. Lower stockpiles are expected to constrain exports from the world's second-largest producer, supporting global prices but potentially squeezing the margins of local textile companies. India's cotton production for the current season is estimated to dip to 30.97 million bales, with consumption forecasted to rise, leading to an uptick in exports. Looking ahead to the 2024/25 marketing year, India's cotton production is expected to decrease by two percent due to anticipated shifts in acreage towards higher-return crops. Meanwhile, China's cotton imports are forecasted to increase on the back of higher domestic and international demand for textile and apparel products, with production in Xinjiang remaining stable. Technically, the cotton market witnessed long liquidation, with a drop in open interest by -0.96% and prices declining by -280 rupees. Support for Cottoncandy is expected at 58140, with potential downside targets at 57930, while resistance levels may materialize around 58620, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing of 58890.

Trading Ideas:
* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 57930-58890.
* Cotton dropped amid declining demand, and a growing world carryover.
* India's cotton stocks set to plunge 31% y/y to lowest in decades
* Cotton stocks at the end of 2023/24 marketing year could fall to 2 million bales  - CAI
* In , a major spot market, the price ended at  Rupees dropped by  percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices experienced a slight decline of -0.27% yesterday, closing at 19030, primarily due to expectations of new arrivals from the Marathwada region in Maharashtra. However, the downside was limited by below-normal supplies and active festive demand. Despite the influx of new arrivals, reports indicate that supply levels remain below average, supporting prices. New crop arrivals were reported in key markets such as Nanded, Nizamabad, and Erode, with quantities higher compared to the previous week. Turmeric production for 2023-24 is estimated to be lower than the previous year, contributing to the overall supply constraints. Additionally, demand destruction has been observed as prices surged, with many consumers adopting a hand-to-mouth approach. Turmeric exports during Apr-Feb 2024 declined by 4.42% compared to the previous year, while imports decreased by 15.36% during the same period. However, there was a notable increase in both exports and imports in February 2024 compared to January 2024 and February 2023, indicating fluctuating international trade dynamics. Technically, the turmeric market witnessed fresh selling pressure, with a rise in open interest by 1.8% and prices declining by -52 rupees. Support levels for turmeric are identified at 18788 and 18544, while resistance is anticipated at 19428, with a potential breakthrough suggesting further upside towards 19824. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels, alongside supply and demand trends, to navigate potential price fluctuations and market sentiment in the turmeric sector.

Trading Ideas:
* Turmeric trading range for the day is 18544-19824.
* Turmeric dropped as new arrivals are expected from the Marathwada region in Maharashtra.
* However, downside seen limited amid below normal supplies and active festive demand.
* The Ministry of Agriculture first advance estimate for turmeric production in 2023-24 is estimated at 10.74 lakh tonnes
* In , a major spot market, the price ended at  Rupees dropped by  percent.

Jeera 

Jeera prices saw a marginal uptick of 0.15% to settle at 22700, driven by concerns over increasing arrivals in the market, particularly in Rajkot Mandi. However, the downside was limited as global buyers continued to prefer Indian jeera amidst tightening global supplies. With daily arrivals ranging from 10000 to 12000 bags in Rajkot Mandi, surpassing current demand levels, the market faced pressure from increased supply. New arrivals in Gujarat and Rajasthan further exacerbated the situation, with sowing areas witnessing significant expansion due to favorable prices and weather conditions. The total production of cumin in Gujarat is estimated to reach a new record of 4.08 lakh tonnes, representing a substantial increase from previous years. Similarly, Rajasthan also reported a 53% increase in cumin production, resulting in a doubling of overall production in major cumin-producing areas of India compared to the previous year. Despite the anticipated increase in production, trade analysts expect a significant rise in cumin exports, projected to reach about 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024. However, Jeera exports during Apr-Feb 2024 experienced a decline of 23.75% compared to the same period in the previous year, reflecting challenges in the export market amidst volatile domestic prices. Despite the decline in exports, technical indicators suggest short covering in the market, with a drop in open interest by -3.42% and prices rising by 35 rupees. Support for Jeera is anticipated at 22600, with potential downside targets at 22510, while resistance levels may manifest around 22810, with a breakthrough potentially leading to further testing of 22930.

Trading Ideas:
* Jeera trading range for the day is 22510-22930.
* Jeera settled flat as there is a possibility of further increase in arrivals pressure in the market.
* There will be a huge increase in cumin exports, which will reach about 14-15 thousand tonnes in February 2024.
* New arrivals have started in Gujarat since last 20-25 days and new arrivals have started in Rajasthan also since last 15 days.
* In Jodhpur, a major spot market, the price ended at 24500 Rupees dropped by 0 percent.

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