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Gold

Gold prices edged higher by 0.26% to settle at Rs.1,61,525, supported by strong safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. Escalating air strikes involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran heightened uncertainty in global markets, prompting investors to move toward bullion. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that military operations could continue for four to five weeks, further raising concerns about prolonged conflict and its potential impact on the global economy. On the demand front, China showed stronger physical buying interest. Data from Hong Kong’s Census and Statistics Department showed that China’s net gold imports through Hong Kong jumped 68.7% in January to 20.585 metric tons from 12.205 tons in December. Total imports via the route reached 36.544 tons, up 30.4% month-on-month. Physical gold in China traded at premiums of $12–$13 per ounce above the global benchmark price following the Lunar New Year holiday, reflecting improved demand. Meanwhile, India saw weaker demand as higher prices widened dealer discounts to as much as $65 per ounce. China’s central bank also extended its gold-buying streak for a 15th consecutive month, highlighting continued central bank interest in the metal. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 5.3% to 7,687 lots while prices gained Rs.417. Gold has immediate support at Rs.1,60,495 and further at Rs.1,59,465, while resistance is seen at Rs.1,63,300, with a move above potentially pushing prices toward Rs.1,65,075.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 159465-165075.

* Gold prices rose as escalating U.S.-Israeli air strikes against Iran heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

* Reduced bets for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve undermines the USD.

* China's central bank extended its gold buying spree for a 15th month in January.

Silver

Silver prices edged slightly higher by 0.09% to settle at Rs.2,65,560, supported by safe-haven demand as tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate. The U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran entered its fifth day, adding to fears of a prolonged regional crisis. Reports indicated that Israel struck a building where clerics were meeting to elect a new Supreme Leader. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the conflict could lead to leadership changes in Iran and highlighted the uncertainty surrounding the situation. Meanwhile, the geopolitical situation has also complicated the economic outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari noted that the Iran conflict has increased uncertainty around the U.S. economy and future interest-rate decisions. Economic data from the U.S. showed private businesses added 63,000 jobs in February, the strongest increase since July and above market expectations, suggesting resilience in the labor market. On the supply side, physical silver markets are showing signs of tightening. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to around 350 tonnes, the lowest level since 2015 and sharply down from the peak of over 3,000 tonnes in 2021. At the same time, silver holdings in London vaults stood at 27,729 tonnes at the end of January, slightly lower than the previous month. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining by 0.83% to 6,471 lots while prices rose by Rs.242. Silver has immediate support at Rs.2,61,065 and further at Rs.2,56,575, while resistance is seen at Rs.2,73,280, with a move above this level potentially pushing prices toward Rs.2,81,005.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 256575-281005.

* Silver gained as ongoing Middle East hostilities raised concerns about a protracted regional conflict.

* Fed’s Kashkari said that the Iran conflict has increased uncertainty about the U.S.

* Private businesses in the US added 63K jobs in February 2026, the most since July.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices edged lower in the previous session, settling 0.47% down at 6,937, as reports emerged that Iranian operatives were seeking talks with the United States to ease tensions and potentially end the conflict involving Iran. According to a report by The New York Times, members of Iran’s intelligence apparatus had signaled openness to discussions with the Central Intelligence Agency, raising hopes that the conflict disrupting Middle East energy flows could eventually de-escalate. Additional pressure came from rising U.S. crude inventories. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude stocks increased by 5.6 million barrels last week, significantly above market expectations of a 2.3 million-barrel build. Looking ahead, supply and demand forecasts remain mixed. Goldman Sachs has raised its second-quarter 2026 Brent price forecast to $76 per barrel, while the International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to grow by 930,000 barrels per day this year. At the same time, OPEC+ plans to gradually increase output, with key members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia set to raise production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest dropping 9.92% to 15,240 while prices declined by Rs.33. Crude oil has immediate support at 6,761, with a break below potentially testing 6,585. On the upside, resistance is seen at 7,130, and a move above this level could push prices toward 7,323.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6585-7323.

* Crude oil prices fell after a report that Iranian operatives sought talks with the U.S. to end the ‌war on Iran.

* Goldman Sachs raises Q2 oil price forecast by $10 to $76/bbl

* Iraq has decreased oil production from the Rumaila oil field by 700,000 bpd on Tuesday

Natural gas

Natural gas prices dropped sharply by 5.58% to settle at Rs.272.4 as global energy markets eased following reports that Iran may be open to negotiations to end the ongoing Middle East conflict. The possibility of diplomatic talks helped cool some geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets. However, supply concerns have not completely faded, as the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar remains offline and the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed. U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States would ensure safe passage for vessels by providing naval escorts if required. On the domestic front, warmer weather forecasts are expected to reduce heating demand and could allow inventories to rebuild above normal levels by mid-March. Production remains strong, while LNG exports hit a record high in February. According to LSEG data, average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased slightly to 109.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, compared with 109.2 bcfd in February. Demand, including exports, is projected to fall from 121.4 bcfd this week to 110.9 bcfd next week. Meanwhile, flows to major U.S. LNG export plants averaged 18.6 bcfd so far in March, slightly below February’s record 18.7 bcfd. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 12.19% to 24,570 while prices declined by Rs.16.1. Natural gas has immediate support at Rs.265.2, with a break below this level potentially pushing prices toward Rs.258. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs.282.6, and a move above this level could open the door for a test of Rs.292.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 258-292.8.

* Natural gas dropped as global energy prices eased following reports that Iran may be open to talks to end the Middle East conflict.

* The world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar remains offline, and the Strait of Hormuz is largely closed, sustaining supply concerns.

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states eased to 109.1 bcfd so far in March, down from 109.2 bcfd in February.

Copper

Copper prices edged, settling up 0.55% at 1209.3, supported by stronger-than-expected private factory data from China, which lifted optimism about industrial demand from the world’s largest copper consumer. Market participants are closely watching the ongoing National People's Congress Two Sessions, where policymakers are expected to set economic targets and outline priorities under the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan for 2026–2030. Meanwhile, expectations for the next rate cut from the Federal Reserve have shifted to September, although markets still anticipate two 25-basis-point cuts in 2026. On the supply side, flooding in the Democratic Republic of the Congo disrupted a major copper export route after a key bridge collapse near the Zambia border, potentially affecting shipments from one of the world’s leading producers. At the same time, investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and UBS remain optimistic about long-term copper prices, citing tightening supply and growing demand. However, rising inventories continue to weigh on sentiment. Copper stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumped to nearly a 10-year high following the Lunar New Year holiday, while inventories on the London Metal Exchange and COMEX have also increased. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest easing by 0.26% to 16,215 while prices gained Rs.6.6. Copper finds immediate support at 1203.8, with a break below potentially testing 1198.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at 1215.4, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward 1221.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1198.1-1221.3.

* Copper prices recovered due to better than expected private factory data from China.

* Investors focused on the upcoming annual convention of the National People's Congress in top consumer China for demand signals.

* Markets have pushed back expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut to September from earlier forecasts of July.

Zinc

Zinc prices ended slightly higher, settling 0.28% up at 327.85, supported mainly by tight supply conditions and concerns over mine disruptions. Lower inventories and production interruptions continued to underpin the market, helping prices stay firm. However, gains remained limited as a stronger U.S. Dollar Index, fueled by geopolitical tensions involving Iran, weighed on sentiment and raised concerns about global manufacturing demand. On the supply front, inventories in warehouses tracked by the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped 44.8%, reflecting post-holiday stock rebuilding after Chinese markets reopened. While the rise in stocks created some pressure, expectations of restocking demand from China helped cushion the downside. In terms of production developments, Boliden restarted the Tara mine in Ireland, while Ivanhoe Mines continues ramping up output at the Kipushi project in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Meanwhile, a zinc mine in southwest China temporarily halted operations in early February and is expected to resume in March, slightly tightening concentrate availability. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global zinc market recorded a 33,000-ton deficit in 2025, though rising mine production suggests the market could shift into a small surplus this year.  Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 1.59% to 3,765 while prices gained Rs.0.9. Zinc has immediate support at 326.6, with further downside potentially testing 325.4. On the upside, resistance is seen at 328.9, and a break above this level could push prices toward 330.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 325.4-330.

* Zinc gains as low inventories and mine closures, delays underpinned prices.

* However upside seen limited as the war in Iran triggered a surge for the US dollar and developed risks to global manufacturing demand.

* Goldman Sachs expects the global zinc market to be in a small surplus this year

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose sharply, settling 1.49% higher at 330.25, as supply concerns intensified following disruptions in the Middle East. The rally gained momentum after Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure on shipments, citing logistical difficulties. Additional supply worries emerged after Norsk Hydro announced a controlled shutdown at its joint venture smelter in Qatar. Ongoing geopolitical tensions involving the United States, Israel, and Iran have raised fears of broader disruptions across the Middle East, a region responsible for roughly 8–9% of global aluminium production. Concerns have also intensified after threats to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy and metal supplies. Despite these supply risks, global production remains steady. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output reached 6.317 million tons in January, slightly higher than the same period last year. Meanwhile, World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a modest surplus of 57,000 tons in December. Production in China continues to remain strong, with refined aluminium output reaching 3.87 million tons in December, contributing to a full-year total above 45 million tons, close to the government’s production cap. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 0.64% to 4,684 while prices gained Rs.4.85. Aluminium has immediate support at 327.3, with further support at 324.1. On the upside, resistance is seen at 332.9, and a breakout above this level could push prices toward 335.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 324.1-335.3.

* Aluminium gained after reports Aluminium Bahrain declared force majeure on its contracts because it is not able to ship

* Aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange jumped as much as 5.1% to $3,418 a ton, their strongest since April 2022.

* Supply worries deepened after Norway's Norsk Hydro announced a controlled shutdown in its aluminium joint venture in Qatar

Turmeric

Turmeric slipped 1.69% to settle at Rs.14,576 as traders reacted to expectations of a sharp rise in fresh arrivals at Erode over the next two weeks. Higher acreage, supported by favourable rains during sowing, has also weighed on sentiment. For the 2025–26 season, acreage is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up 4% year-on-year, with fresh output projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. However, the downside appears limited. Arrivals are still below normal, and both farmers and stockists have reportedly reduced inventories, tightening near-term availability. Weather disruptions, including heavy rains and localized disease in parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka, have impacted yields. While dried output is estimated at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last year, lower carry-forward stocks cap the overall supply increase. Export demand remains supportive, particularly from Europe and the US, with April–December exports rising nearly 4% year-on-year. Imports during the same period fell over 41%, further balancing domestic availability. In Nizamabad, a key spot market, prices edged up marginally to Rs.15,836.15. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.37% to 18,610 lots. Immediate support is seen at Rs.14,326, with Rs.14,074 below that. Resistance stands at Rs.14,740, and a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs.14,902.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14074-14902.

* Turmeric dropped as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Pressure also seen amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* India’s turmeric crop for the 2026 harvest is shaping up with higher acreage but only moderate supply growth

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15836.15 Rupees gained by 0.02 percent.

Jeera

Jeera edged lower by 0.32% to settle at Rs.21,475 as the arrival of the new crop began in select mandis, with supplies expected to gather pace from March. Comfortable stock levels and subdued export activity further weighed on sentiment. However, arrivals at Unjha remain limited, and good-quality cumin continues to command a premium in the spot market, where prices inched up to Rs.21,816.6. On the supply side, sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, raising concerns about output. National production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat’s output is pegged at 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan may produce 48–50 lakh bags. Aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan and weather-related disruptions in key producing countries such as China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan are also being monitored. Meanwhile, April–December exports declined 12.08% year-on-year, reflecting weak overseas demand despite some improvement from Gulf nations and China. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.93% to 4,077 lots. Immediate support is seen at Rs.21,010, with Rs.20,530 below that. Resistance stands at Rs.21,760, and a sustained move above could push prices toward Rs.22,030.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20530-22030.

* Jeera dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21816.6 Rupees gained by 0.1 percent.

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