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Gold

Gold prices surged by 1.65% to settle at ?94,841, driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid growing concerns over the US economic outlook and fiscal sustainability. A significant catalyst for the rally came from Moody’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to "Aa1" from "Aaa," citing the nation’s rising debt levels and elevated interest payments compared to peers. Geopolitical developments also lent support, with speculation about Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks gaining traction following a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, the potential exclusion of the US from such negotiations may add to geopolitical uncertainty, further enhancing gold’s appeal. Macroeconomic indicators from the US remain weak, with soft inflation data and lackluster economic figures reinforcing market expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. This dovish outlook further boosted gold's investment demand, which saw a 170% year-on-year jump in the first quarter of 2025, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).  In Asia, lower prices revived physical demand. Indian dealers offered higher discounts of up to $34 per ounce, while Chinese premiums ranged from $9–$50 per ounce. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising by 3.39% to 10,502 contracts. Gold is now finding support at Rs 93,470 and may test Rs 92,095 if selling intensifies. Resistance is seen at Rs 95,560, with a break above likely to push prices toward ?96,275.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 92095-96275.

* Gold rose as US economic and fiscal concerns fueled safe-haven demand.

* Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to "Aa1" amid rising debt and interest costs.

* Fed officials’ upcoming speeches may clarify monetary policy and economic outlook.

Silver

Silver prices climbed by 1.92% to settle at ?97,288, supported by a weakened U.S. dollar, which hovered near a two-week low amid growing concerns over the U.S. fiscal and economic outlook. The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody’s from “Aaa” to “Aa1,” due to rising debt and widening deficits, spurred safe-haven demand. Market sentiment was further weighed by President Trump's renewed tariff threats and the passage of tax-cut legislation lacking offsetting spending reductions, adding to fiscal worries. Geopolitical developments also influenced the market, with President Trump stating that Russia and Ukraine would soon begin ceasefire talks, creating additional uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid unsettled financial conditions, with markets now anticipating at least 54 basis points in rate cuts this year, starting as early as October. On the supply-demand front, the Silver Institute projects a global market deficit of 117.6 million ounces for 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall, albeit narrowing by 21% from 2024. Industrial demand remains the backbone, expected to hit a new high over 700 million ounces, driven by green technologies and renewable energy sectors. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering as open interest dropped by 12.06% to 18,661 contracts while prices surged by ?1,835. Silver finds support at ?95,680, with a potential test of ?94,075 below that. Resistance lies at ?98,110, and a break above could push prices toward ?98,935.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 94075-98935.

* Silver rose as the dollar index hit a two-week low amid US fiscal concerns.

* Moody’s downgraded US credit rating, citing rising debt and expanding budget deficit.

* Softer inflation and weak US data bolster expectations of Fed rate cuts this year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices rose by 0.66% to settle at ?5,334 amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals from global supply and demand data. The market remained cautious as U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire discussions continued, while U.S. President Donald Trump refrained from joining Europe in imposing fresh sanctions on Moscow. This tempered bullish momentum despite escalating global tensions. Adding further complexity, Kazakhstan’s oil production unexpectedly increased by 2% in May, in defiance of OPEC+ efforts to maintain output discipline. From the supply perspective, U.S. crude inventories surged by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels, although stocks at Cushing dropped by 1.1 million barrels. Refinery runs also rose, while gasoline and distillate inventories fell, with distillate stockpiles dropping significantly by 3.2 million barrels, far more than expected. Net U.S. crude imports increased by 422,000 barrels per day, further indicating active trade flows. On the demand side, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 upward to 740,000 bpd, citing stronger-than-anticipated economic growth and softer prices. Technically, crude is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 7.25% to 10,356, while prices edged higher by Rs 35. Support lies at Rs 5,282, below which prices may test Rs 5,230. Resistance is seen at Rs 5,380, with a breakout potentially extending gains to Rs 5,426.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5230-5426.

* Crude oil gains due to uncertainty in U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia-Ukraine peace talks

* Iran says nuclear talks could break down if US insists on no enrichment

* China's cautious economic outlook capped oil gains despite its status as top importer.

Natural gas

Natural gas surged by 8.7% to settle at ?291.2, supported by a notable decline in daily output and upward revisions in demand forecasts for the upcoming week. Prices were buoyed despite storage levels being approximately 3% above the five-year average, highlighting strong speculative buying amid tighter supply expectations. According to LSEG, natural gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has fallen to an average of 103.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May, down from April’s record high of 105.8 bcfd. On a daily basis, output slipped to a one-week low of 103.4 bcfd on Tuesday, further tightening supply fundamentals. LSEG also raised its demand forecast, projecting gas consumption in the Lower 48 to drop to 95.1 bcfd next week, which, though a decline from this week’s 98.8 bcfd, is higher than earlier estimates. LNG exports have moderated slightly, averaging 15.1 bcfd so far in May, down from April's record of 16.0 bcfd. Meanwhile, U.S. utilities added 110 billion cubic feet to storage for the week ending May 9, aligning with expectations and placing total inventories at 2,255 Bcf — 57 Bcf above the five-year average, though still 375 Bcf below last year’s level. Technically, natural gas is under short covering, with open interest plunging by 40.04% to 13,560 as prices surged ?23.3. Support is seen at ?274.8, with a further drop potentially testing ?258.3. Resistance is pegged at ?299.9, and a breakout could take prices up to ?308.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 258.3-308.5.

* Natural gas rose as output declined and demand forecasts for next week were revised higher.

* Lower 48 gas production dropped to 103.9 bcfd in May, down from April’s 105.8 bcfd.

* Daily output hit a one-week low of 103.4 bcfd, further supporting prices.

Copper

Copper prices edged up by 0.33% to settle at ?858.2, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and fresh stimulus efforts from China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal. This positive momentum outweighed concerns about global demand disruptions stemming from renewed U.S. tariffs. Additionally, focus has intensified around a U.S. investigation into potential new tariffs on copper imports, intended to bolster domestic output crucial for electric vehicles, military technology, and semiconductor manufacturing. Inventory dynamics presented a mixed picture. On the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper stocks dropped sharply to a 10.5-month low of 179,375 metric tons, suggesting tightening availability. In contrast, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) recorded a 34% surge in weekly inventories to 108,142 metric tons as of May 16, signaling a temporary buildup in Chinese supply. COMEX inventories in the U.S. also hit a six-year high at 169,664 metric tons, fueled by diversion of global shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs. Overall, international copper inventories rose by 24.33% to 17,117 metric tons. Trade data revealed China’s refined copper imports declined 5% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, while April imports remained flat at 438,000 metric tons. Cumulatively, imports for the first four months were down 3.9%.  Technically, copper is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 14.82% to 2,913. Support is seen at ?852.1, with a break below targeting ?846, while resistance lies at ?862 and a breakout could push prices to ?865.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 846-865.8.

* Copper prices rose as a weaker dollar and China stimulus outweighed U.S. tariff concerns.

* LME copper inventories dropped to 179,375 mt, the lowest in over ten months.

* SHFE copper inventories surged 34% weekly to 108,142 mt, signaling supply buildup.

Zinc

Zinc prices rose by 1.4% to settle at ?260.2, buoyed by China's renewed economic support measures aimed at reviving its sluggish post-pandemic economy amid mounting global trade tensions. The People's Bank of China cut benchmark lending rates for the first time since October, and major state-owned banks followed by reducing deposit rates. While the stimulus steps were relatively modest, they signaled a gradual approach to monetary easing that helped improve sentiment in the base metals market. However, broader market sentiment remained cautious due to the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Moody's and hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve. On the supply side, China's refined zinc production in April 2025 increased by 1.6% month-on-month and approximately 10% year-on-year, though cumulative output from January to April rose just 0.3%, missing expectations. Production increases were concentrated in Gansu, Qinghai, Yunnan, Sichuan, Hunan, and Shanxi, while Hunan and Guangxi saw declines. For May, output is projected to rise marginally by less than 0.1% month-on-month and over 3% year-on-year, bringing the January-May cumulative growth to nearly 1% year-on-year. Technically, the zinc market is experiencing short covering, with open interest falling by 4.91% to 1,703 contracts. Support lies at ?257, with a drop below that level opening the path to ?253.7. Resistance is seen at ?262, and a breakout above could test ?263.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 253.7-263.7.

* Zinc rose as China boosted stimulus to support growth.

* Beijing’s monetary easing remained mild, reflecting a cautious approach amid trade tensions.

* China’s refined zinc output rose 1.6% MoM and 10% YoY in April 2025.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices climbed by 1.42% to settle at ?239.6, driven by ongoing supply tightness in Yunnan due to insufficient recovery of hydropower, which restricted regional smelting capacity. This supply strain provided some support to prices, even as broader fundamentals posed downside risks. On the bearish side, a significant jump in available aluminium inventories at the London Metal Exchange (LME) weighed on sentiment. On-warrant LME aluminium stocks surged to 343,025 tons — their highest since December — after 92,950 tons were placed back on warrant, indicating rising available supply. The cash-to-three-month spread flipped from a $6 premium on Friday to a $2 discount on Monday, signaling easing near-term tightness. Chinese output data also dampened market optimism. Aluminium production in China — the world’s largest producer — rose by 4.2% year-on-year in April to 3.75 million metric tons, bringing the January–April total to 14.79 million metric tons, a 3.4% annual increase. This uptick in supply was coupled with weaker macroeconomic indicators, as factory output and retail sales underwhelmed, and new home prices remained stagnant, reinforcing concerns about domestic demand. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 14.63% to 2,065 contracts while prices rose ?3.35. Aluminium now finds support at ?236.6, with a breach potentially taking prices to ?233.7. Resistance is seen at ?241.1, and a move above could push prices towards ?242.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 233.7-242.7.

* Aluminium rose amid tight supply from Yunnan’s weak hydropower recovery.

* LME aluminium stocks surged to 343,025 tons after a sharp increase in on-warrant inventory.

* China’s aluminium production rose 3.4% to 14.8 million tons from January to April 2025.

Cottoncandy

Cottoncandy prices rose by 0.48% to settle at ?54,200, driven by tightening domestic supply projections and short covering in the futures market. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) revised its domestic production estimate for the 2024-25 season down by 4 lakh bales to 291.30 lakh bales of 170 kg each, primarily due to lower output in Maharashtra. This revision from the earlier projection of 295.30 lakh bales signals ongoing supply constraints. Total cotton supply till the end of March is estimated at 306.83 lakh bales, including 25 lakh bales of imports and opening stocks of 30.19 lakh bales. Stocks as of March-end stood at 127.83 lakh bales, with 27 lakh bales held by mills and the remaining 100.83 lakh bales with Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, and traders. India’s cotton imports are expected to more than double to 33 lakh bales, up from 15.20 lakh bales last season, amid shrinking domestic output. Meanwhile, exports are pegged lower at 16 lakh bales, down from 28.36 lakh bales in the previous season. On the global front, the USDA revised world cotton production down by 69,000 bales due to lower output in Argentina and Cote d’Ivoire, despite increased output in China. Global consumption also declined by 520,000 bales. Technically, the market is under short covering with open interest falling by 5.82% to 178. Support is seen at ?53,930, and a break below could test ?53,650, while resistance is at ?54,370, with a possible move toward ?54,530.

Trading Ideas:

* Cottoncandy trading range for the day is 53650-54530.

* Cotton prices gained as CAI expects a shrinkage in the domestic crop further.

* Cotton exports for the 2024-25 season are pegged at 16 lakh bales, lower by 12.36 lakh bales over previous year’s 28.36 lakh bales.

* The closing stock for 2024-25 season at end of September 2025 is estimated lower at 23.49 lakh bales from same period last year’s 30.19 lakh bales. I

* In Rajkot, a major spot market, the price ended at 26010.3 Rupees gained by 0.03 percent.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices edged higher by 0.49% to settle at ?14,646, supported by ongoing concerns over lower production estimates and reduced arrivals. Although the sown area increased by 10% to 3.30 lakh hectares this season, adverse weather — especially untimely rains — is expected to lower productivity. Last year’s production stood at 10.75 lakh tonnes, but current estimates suggest a 10–15% decline in yields, particularly in the Nanded region where small rhizomes and crop rots have been reported.  Despite the supply-side constraints, upside remains capped by increased arrivals and subdued export enquiries. Total arrivals surged to 57,500 quintals from 29,860 quintals in the previous session, applying some pressure to prices. At Duggirala market, fresh turmeric continues to attract strong buying interest, with newer stock fetching a premium due to superior quality.  Supportive sentiment is also being reinforced by government procurement initiatives in Himachal Pradesh, where turmeric purchases are being undertaken to promote natural farming practices. On the export front, turmeric shipments rose by 11.51% to 161,229.56 tonnes during Apr–Feb 2025 compared to the same period last year. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping by 1.05% to 15,985 contracts while prices gained ?72. Support lies at ?14,406, with further downside testing possible at ?14,164. Resistance is seen at ?14,824, with a break above likely pushing prices toward ?15,000.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 14164-15000.

* Turmeric gained amid persistent concerns about low arrivals and lower production estimates.

* Fresh crop arrivals are seeing strong buyer interest, with new stock consistently fetching higher prices than older inventory.

* Himachal Pradesh government started government procurement of turmeric to promote natural farming.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 14657.15 Rupees gained by 0.92 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled marginally higher by 0.09% at ?21,260, despite subdued export demand and lower buying interest from domestic buyers. The market is under pressure due to ample supplies and tepid export inquiries. Total arrivals in key mandis increased to 32,900 bags from 28,000 bags in the previous session, adding supply-side pressure. The new cumin crop sowing in major producing states like Gujarat and Rajasthan has been delayed by about a month due to unfavorable weather conditions, which may impact future supplies. Currently, farmers hold around 20 lakh bags of cumin, but only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the season’s end, leaving a substantial carry-forward stock of approximately 16 lakh bags. However, production this season is expected to be similar to last year, supported by better crop conditions and good sowing. On the export front, jeera exports between April and February 2025 surged by 62.55% to 195,164.58 tonnes compared to the same period last year. February 2025 exports stood at 12,996.88 tonnes, down 23.92% from January 2025 but up 18.52% compared to February 2024. Technically, the market is showing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising by 1.49% to settle at 6,753. Support is seen at ?21,180, with a break below possibly testing ?21,100. On the upside, resistance is placed at ?21,360, and a move above this level could see prices testing ?21,460.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21100-21460.

* Jeera settle flat due to lower buying despite weak export demand.

* The current season is expected to have similar production levels as last year due to better crop conditions.

* In Feb 2025 around 12,996.88 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 17,083.31 tonnes in Jan 2025 showing a drop of 23.92%.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21474.95 Rupees dropped by -0.66 percent.

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