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Bullion Outlook

* Spot Gold is likely to trade lower amid stronger dollar and rise in US treasury yields. Further, hawkish comments from the Fed chair Jerome Powell has lower the probability of September rate cut. As per the CME Fed watch tool, probability of September rate cut has dipped towards 41% from 63.3% a day ago. Additionally, forecast of rise in US core PCE index could further reduce the odds of September rate cut. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk and tariff uncertainty could limit the downside in the bullions.

* On the data front, a strong call base at 3400 would act as key hurdle for prices. On the downside 3250 put strike has higher OI which could provide support. MCX Gold October is expected to face hurdle near RS.99,800 and move lower towards RS.98,250 level. A move below RS.98,200 would turn bearish.

* MCX Silver Sep is expected to slip towards RS.110,600, as long as it trades under RS.114,200 level.

Base Metal Outlook

* Copper prices are expected to trade lower after US President excluded refined copper from the tariff. The latest tariff will apply to imports of semi-finished products in wires and pipes. Meanwhile, weaker than expected manufacturing PMI data from China would also weigh on copper prices. Additionally, strong dollar and hawkish comments from the US Federal Reserve would also weigh on metal prices. On the inventory front, LME copper stocks continued to see addition, which might restrict its upside.

* MCX Copper August is expected to slide towards RS.875 as long as it trades under RS.905 level. A break below RS.875 level prices may turn weak towards RS.865 level

* MCX Aluminum July is expected to face resistance near RS.257 level and correct towards RS.253 level. MCX Zinc July is likely to move south towards RS.265 level as long as it stays under RS.270 level.

Energy Outlook

* Crude oil is likely to hold its gains and rise towards $72 per barrel on mounting concerns over tighter global supplies. US President has imposed tariffs on Indian exports and penalized its Russian oil imports. Additionally, US has extended its sanction on Iran. These combined pressure could hurt global supply of refined oil products like diesel. Meanwhile, growing bets of supply increase from OPEC+ in its next meeting would improve oil supplies and restrict its upside. Additionally, weaker economic numbers from China and stronger dollar would also restrict any major up move.

* On the data front, 60 put strike has highest OI concentration which would act as key support. On the upside $75 call strike has higher OI concentration, which would likely to act as immediate hurdle. MCX Crude oil Aug is likely to rise towards RS.6300 level, as long as it holds above RS.6000 level.

* MCX Natural gas August future is expected to slide towards RS.260 as long as it remains under RS.280.

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