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Gold

Gold prices settled marginally lower by 0.14% at 153,442 amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and continued uncertainty surrounding the prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Rising crude oil prices kept inflation concerns elevated, while a stronger US dollar added pressure on bullion prices. Market sentiment remained cautious after US President Donald Trump described the US-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support” following the rejection of Tehran’s latest peace proposal. Reports indicating possible renewed US military operations and discussions over escorting commercial vessels through the Strait further intensified market uncertainty. On the macroeconomic front, US inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, marking the highest level since May 2023, while core inflation also exceeded expectations at 2.8%. The stronger inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer, with markets now increasingly factoring in the possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike by December. Major brokerages including BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs revised their Fed rate-cut expectations further into 2027 due to persistent inflation and resilient labor market conditions. Physical demand trends remained mixed across major consuming regions. In India, higher prices continued to suppress jewellery demand, with dealers offering discounts of up to $15 per ounce. India’s April gold imports are projected to fall to a near 30-year low of around 15 metric tons. However, investment demand remained robust, with World Gold Council data showing India’s gold investment demand surged 52% year-on-year during the March quarter. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 3.52% to 9,530 while prices declined by 221 rupees. Gold is now finding support at 152,585, below which prices may test 151,730 levels. Resistance is seen at 154,270, and a move above could push prices towards 155,100.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 151730-155100.

*  Gold fell amid heightened Middle East uncertainty and the prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

*  Trump stated that the US-Iran ceasefire was on "massive life support" after rejecting Tehran’s latest peace proposal.

*  Reports indicate Trump is set to meet with his national security team to discuss a potential restart of military operations.

Silver

Silver prices settled higher by 0.27% at 279,062 as improving industrial demand prospects and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continued to support the metal. Market participants remained focused on the economic implications of the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on inflation, energy prices, and global growth expectations. Headline US inflation accelerated to 3.8%, the highest since March 2023 and above market expectations of 3.7%, mainly driven by elevated gasoline prices following disruptions linked to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Core inflation also surprised on the upside at 2.8%, while monthly consumer prices rose 0.6% in April after a sharp 0.9% rise in March. The geopolitical backdrop remained tense after US President Donald Trump stated that the ceasefire with Iran was “on life support” following Tehran’s rejection of Washington’s peace proposal. Persistently high energy prices and stronger inflation expectations have reinforced views that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged for an extended period, with markets currently pricing nearly a 27% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by December. Fundamentally, silver continues to derive support from expectations of another year of structural supply deficit, according to the Silver Institute. Global physical silver investment demand is forecast to rise 20% this year, driven by improving investor participation and sustained industrial consumption from sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics. China’s March silver imports surged to a record 836 metric tons due to aggressive retail investment demand and stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 5.08% to settle at 7,693 while prices gained 751 rupees. Silver is now finding support at 273,875, below which prices may test 268,685 levels. Resistance is seen at 283,505, and a move above this level could push prices towards 287,945.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 268685-287945.

* Silver gains on improving industrial demand outlook amid Iran war concerns.

* The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note remained elevated above 4.4% on Tuesday, nearing the highs reached in March.

* Headline US inflation accelerated to 3.8% in March, the highest level since March 2023 and above market expectations of 3.7%.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices surged by 3.7% to settle at 9,723 as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran reignited fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the Middle East. Market sentiment turned bullish after negotiations between Washington and Tehran showed little progress, increasing concerns that the Strait of Hormuz could remain effectively closed for an extended period. The Strait remains a critical global shipping route for crude exports, and continued disruptions have intensified worries over tightening global energy supplies. Additional support came after estimates showed U.S. crude inventories likely declined by around 1.7 million barrels last week, reinforcing expectations of tightening supply conditions. Traders also remained focused on the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, particularly after Washington imposed sanctions on entities accused of facilitating Iranian oil shipments to China. The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions continue to weigh on global energy trade flows, with Chinese imports of U.S. crude and LNG having sharply declined following tariff measures. OPEC production data also added bullish momentum to prices. OPEC crude output reportedly fell by 830,000 barrels per day in April to 20.04 million bpd, the lowest level in more than two decades, as the Middle East conflict disrupted exports across the Gulf region. HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel, citing expectations of a longer-than-anticipated disruption in Hormuz traffic and regional oil production. Meanwhile, official inventory data showed U.S. crude stocks fell by 2.314 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories also posted larger-than-expected declines, reflecting strong fuel demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose by 7.87% to settle at 11,681 while prices gained 347 rupees. Crude oil is now getting support at 9,498, below which prices may test 9,272 levels, while resistance is seen at 9,871, with a breakout above this level likely to push prices towards 10,018.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9272-10018.

* Crude oil rose as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran to end the war pushed supply concerns back into spotlight.

* U.S. crude stocks were estimated to have dropped by about 1.7 million barrels last week.

* OPEC oil output hits new low in April on Hormuz export disruption

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled lower by 2.41% at 270.9 amid expectations of weaker near-term demand, comfortable storage levels, and reduced gas flows to LNG export terminals during the seasonal maintenance period. Market sentiment remained pressured as weather forecasts continued to indicate mostly near-normal temperatures through May 27, limiting significant heating or cooling demand across major consuming regions in the United States. Additional pressure came from lower LNG export demand after a liquefaction train at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas resumed operations following a temporary outage caused by a compressor issue. Seasonal maintenance at LNG facilities has also reduced export flows, weighing on overall gas consumption. According to LSEG, average natural gas output across the U.S. Lower 48 states declined to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day in May from 109.6 bcfd in April and the record 110.6 bcfd registered in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was estimated to have dropped by 4.3 bcfd over the last three days to a one-week low of 105.9 bcfd. Production cuts by major energy companies, including EQT, continued as weak spot prices discouraged aggressive output growth. However, ample inventories continued to cap upside momentum. U.S. energy firms injected 79 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended April 24, broadly matching market expectations. Total inventories climbed to 2.142 trillion cubic feet, standing 5.7% above year-ago levels and 7.7% above the five-year seasonal average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected that domestic natural gas production will continue rising to record levels through 2027, while demand is expected to decline slightly in 2026 before recovering in 2027. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 20.16% to settle at 21,438 while prices declined by 6.7 rupees. Natural gas is now finding support at 266.1, below which prices may test 261.3 levels, while resistance is seen at 278.7, with a move above likely to push prices towards 286.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 261.3-286.5.

* Natural gas slid on forecasts for less demand than previously expected, ample amounts of fuel in storage.

* The average storage level in Germany stood at only around 26%, a level last seen during the crisis year of 2021/2022.

* Lower demand forecasts and high storage levels weigh on prices

Copper

Copper prices settled higher by 1.54% at 1,390.15 as supply concerns and expectations of stronger Chinese demand continued to support the market. Sentiment remained firm amid expectations that China’s refined copper imports may increase during the second quarter due to stable industrial demand and lower domestic refined output caused by smelter maintenance activities. Concerns regarding global copper supply also intensified after ongoing disruptions in sulphuric acid shipments affected refining operations. China’s decision to ban sulphuric acid exports from May through at least December further tightened the supply outlook for refined copper production. Market participants also remained focused on developments surrounding Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Although the company denied reports that full production recovery could be delayed until 2028, it still lowered its second-half 2026 recovery target to 65% from the earlier estimate of 85%, keeping supply concerns active. Additionally, copper production in Chile declined around 6% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year, further reinforcing worries about constrained concentrate availability. Inventory trends remained supportive for prices as copper stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 5.6% from the previous release, indicating tightening physical availability. However, broader market fundamentals showed a surplus outlook. According to the International Copper Study Group, the global refined copper market recorded a surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February, while the market is expected to remain in surplus during 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and rising secondary supply. China’s refined copper production rose 8.7% year-on-year in March to 1.33 million metric tons, although imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined 10.9%. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 0.49% to settle at 10,444 while prices gained 21.1 rupees. Copper is now getting support at 1,374.9, below which prices may test 1,359.5 levels, while resistance is seen at 1,399.8, with a move above likely to push prices towards 1,409.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1359.5-1409.3.

* Copper prices rose as supply concerns and expectations of higher demand from China.

* Also supporting prices were expectations that China's refined copper imports will rise in the second quarter.

* China's central bank vows support to boost domestic demand

Zinc

Zinc prices settled higher by 1.83% at 362.35 amid persistent supply concerns and optimism over improving demand prospects from China. Market sentiment remained supported after China’s consumer inflation rose 1.2% in April, above expectations of 0.9%, while factory-gate inflation climbed 2.8%, marking the highest level in 45 months. The stronger macroeconomic data boosted confidence in industrial metals demand, although higher raw material and energy costs were seen as the major drivers behind the rise in producer prices. China’s central bank also reiterated its commitment to an accommodative monetary policy stance to support domestic demand and technological innovation. Supply fundamentals for zinc continue to remain tight despite expectations of higher global mine output this year. Much of the production growth is concentrated in China, while smelters in other regions continue to face operational challenges and power-related disruptions. Declining LME inventories, falling zinc concentrate treatment charges, and a narrowing cash-to-three-month contango continue to indicate tight raw material availability and stronger nearby demand. SMM data showed zinc concentrate port inventories declined by 12,100 metric tons on a weekly basis, reinforcing the tight supply outlook. However, gains remained capped after Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine is expected to resume during the second quarter. Additional supply support may also come from the restart of the Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 4.43% to 2264 while prices gained 6.5 rupees. Zinc is now getting support at 356.4, below which prices could test 350.4 levels, while resistance is seen at 366.2, with a move above likely to test 370 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 350.4-370.

* Zinc gains amid supply concerns and expectations of higher demand from China.

* China's central bank will continue to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy, and strengthen financial support.

* China's consumer prices rose 1.2% in April from a year earlier, while factory-gate prices jumped 2.8%.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices settled higher by 0.6% at 378 amid continued concerns over supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The conflict has affected both exports of aluminium from Gulf producers and imports of critical raw materials, while two regional smelters were reportedly hit by Iranian strikes in late March. Market sentiment remained firm after CRU projected global aluminium prices to stay above $4,000 per metric ton between the third quarter of 2026 and the second quarter of 2027. Additional support came from strong manufacturing activity data from China, which reinforced expectations for stable industrial demand. Supply tightness in the physical market continued to support prices despite higher exchange inventories. Aluminium inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2% to 492,728 tons, the highest level in six years. However, continued weekly outflows of 8,825 tonnes highlighted strong spot demand and tightening availability. Japanese port inventories declined 7.4% to 279,800 metric tons, while Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $350 to $353 per metric ton for second-quarter shipments, the highest level in 11 years. BOFA advanced its $4,000 price forecast to the fourth quarter of 2026, while JP Morgan expects aluminium to average around $3,500 per metric ton during the second half of 2026 amid a projected 1.9 million ton global deficit. China’s aluminium imports rose 6.9% year-on-year in March, while exports surged 15% in April due to tighter overseas supply conditions caused by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 1.32% to 3374 while prices gained 2.25 rupees. Aluminium is now getting support at 374.8, below which prices could test 371.7 levels, while resistance is seen at 380, with a move above likely to test 382.1 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 371.7-382.1.

* Aluminium rose as the Middle East conflict disrupts both exports of metal by Gulf producers and imports of their raw materials.

* CRU sees aluminium prices above $4,000/t in Q3 2026 – Q2 2027

* CRU sees a global aluminium market deficit of 1.4 million tons this year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices extended losses yesterday, settling lower by 0.62% at 15,934 amid rising arrivals across key producing mandis such as Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli, creating temporary oversupply conditions in the spot market. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate liquidity ahead of the upcoming Kharif sowing season, increasing immediate market availability. Additional pressure came from increased arrivals of late-harvested turmeric with higher moisture content, which triggered aggressive discounting in average-quality lots. Export sentiment also remained cautious as ongoing Middle East tensions continued to disrupt logistics and delayed fresh buying commitments from overseas buyers. However, downside in turmeric prices remained limited due to tight availability of premium-quality stocks. Arrivals in major producing regions across Maharashtra and Telangana have remained below normal for the peak season, while moisture-related crop damage and rhizome rot in low-lying fields reduced the supply of export-grade “Double Polished” turmeric. In major hubs such as Sangli and Nizamabad, farmers and stockists are holding back quality stocks in anticipation of prices crossing ?18,000 per quintal. Premium “Salem Fali” turmeric varieties continue to command prices near ?20,000 per quintal in select markets. Fundamentally, lower carry-forward stocks estimated at around 15 lakh bags compared to over 20 lakh bags last season are supporting long-term sentiment. Demand for IPM-certified turmeric from European buyers and steady procurement inquiries from Bangladesh are also providing support. Meanwhile, the Agriculture Ministry revised India’s turmeric production estimate lower to 1.140 million tons, adding to bullish expectations. Export data showed turmeric exports during April to February 2026 rose marginally by 1% to 163,336 tonnes, while imports declined sharply by 40% to 12,476 tonnes during the same period. In Nizamabad spot market, turmeric prices ended at 15,604.4 rupees, gaining 0.34%. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest increased by 12.37% to settle at 16,400 while prices declined by 100 rupees. Turmeric is now getting support at 15,792, with further support at 15,648, while resistance is seen at 16,090, followed by 16,244.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15648-16244.

* Turmeric dropped as daily arrivals across Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly this week to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15604.4 Rupees gained by 0.34 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled marginally higher by 0.08% at 19,955 as the market balanced rising fresh arrivals with persistent concerns over tight quality supplies. Increased arrivals from key Rajasthan producing regions continued to pressure prices after favorable weather accelerated harvesting activity across North-West India. Farmers remained active sellers as they generated liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, resulting in a temporary supply surge in spot markets. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated near 28,500 bags, reflecting ample near-term availability and limiting major upside momentum. However, downside in prices remained restricted due to crop damage caused by recent thunderstorms and hailstorms in Rajasthan during the harvest stage, which raised concerns regarding lower availability of premium “A-grade” quality cumin. Unseasonal rains also delayed drying and processing activities, tightening the supply of high-quality “Sortex” grade stocks. Market sentiment stayed supported by expectations of fresh Chinese buying demand and lower overall domestic production estimates. Current estimates suggest India’s cumin production may decline to around 90–92 lakh bags this season compared to 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat output estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan production at 48–50 lakh bags. Export data also reflected weakness, with Apr-Feb 2026 jeera exports falling 15% year-on-year to 166,536 tonnes. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying as open interest rose 12.07% to settle at 7,467 while prices gained 15 rupees. Jeera is now finding support at 19,830, below which prices may test 19,700 levels. Resistance is seen at 20,070, and a move above this level could push prices towards 20,180.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19700-20180.

* Jeera settled flat as fresh crop arrivals from key Rajasthan hubs have increased.

* Favorable weather conditions across North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting faster than expected.

* Farmers are actively offloading stocks to generate liquidity for the upcoming Kharif planting season, adding continuous sell-side pressure.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20104.6 Rupees gained by 0.08 percent.

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