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Gold

Gold settled 0.34% higher at Rs. 149,610 as investors assessed the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s September meeting for clues regarding the interest rate outlook. Fed policymakers remained divided over further tightening, with some supporting rate increases to contain energy-driven inflation, while others emphasized preventing emerging demand-led price pressures. Traders priced in a 21.6% probability of an October rate hike and an 85% probability of a December increase. Geopolitical tensions continued to support gold, as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months following increased tanker attacks. Delegates at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference forecast gold reaching $5,013 per ounce over the next 12 months. Perth Mint’s gold coin and minted bar sales surged 97.6% month on month to 47,300 ounces in September, marking a seven-month high and increasing 29.3% year on year. Physical demand across major Asian markets improved modestly as lower prices attracted buyers. Indian gold discounts narrowed to $14 per ounce from $43 previously, while Chinese bullion traded at premiums of $5 to $10 per ounce. Gold holdings in London vaults increased 0.74% month on month to 9,534 tonnes at the end of July 2026, valued at $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold forecast at $5,400 per ounce, citing continued central bank diversification as a key structural driver, although additional Federal Reserve tightening could trigger a correction toward $4,070 before recovery to $4,200 by year-end 2026. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with prices rising Rs. 507 while open interest declined 0.75% to 16,575 contracts. Gold is finding support at Rs. 148,970, followed by Rs. 148,335. Resistance is placed at Rs. 150,090, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs. 150,575.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 148335-150575.

* Gold gained as investors assessed the minutes of the Fed’s September meeting for clues on its interest rate trajectory.

* Policymakers divided over rate hike logic in Sept - Fed minutes

* Number of vessels transiting Strait of Hormuz falls to lowest in over two months

Silver

Silver settled 1.04% lower at Rs. 221,233 as investors assessed the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening amid persistent inflation concerns. All 19 policymakers supported the September rate increase, while most indicated that another hike could be appropriate before year-end. However, soft employment and inflation data reduced the probability of an October 28 rate hike to 18.3%, with markets increasingly expecting rates to remain unchanged. Elevated crude oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran, including risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, continued to influence inflation expectations and precious metal sentiment. Delegates at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference forecast silver prices reaching $97 per ounce over the next 12 months. Perth Mint’s silver sales surged 81.3% month on month to 605,408 ounces in September, their highest level since March, and increased 4.6% year on year. Silver holdings in London vaults rose 0.5% month on month to 28,213 tonnes at the end of July 2026, valued at $52.7 billion. Structurally, the silver market is heading toward its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the 2026 shortfall projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Despite this supply imbalance, total demand is expected to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication could fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic growth. Conversely, investment demand for coins and bars is forecast to increase 18%. Silver prices have retreated approximately 35% from their January record high of $121.60 per ounce, easing liquidity pressures as metal returned from United States inventories and exchange traded products experienced outflows. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with prices declining Rs. 2,328 while open interest increased 3.46% to 18,363 contracts, indicating additional bearish positioning. Silver is finding support at Rs. 219,140, followed by Rs. 217,045. Resistance is placed at Rs. 223,990, and a sustained move above this level could trigger recovery toward Rs. 226,745.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 217045-226745.

* Silver weakened as the latest FOMC minutes pointed to the possibility of another US rate hike this year

* Fed Waller said that additional rate hikes will likely be needed, although increases do not have to come at every consecutive meeting.

* Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams also signaled no rush to act again.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 3.65% higher at Rs. 8,864, supported by persistent concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions following increased attacks on shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Additional supply risks emerged as a hurricane approached the United States Gulf of Mexico, forcing producers to shut offshore platforms. Approximately 25.08% of current regional oil production and 16.37% of natural gas production had been shut in because of the storm. The International Energy Agency reported that member countries supported accelerating the release of approximately 100 million barrels of emergency oil stocks pledged in March, prioritising diesel supplies. Members retain around 1.1 billion barrels in reserves, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel. Guyana’s oil production declined to 832,000 barrels per day in August from 886,000 barrels per day in July. OPEC and its allies agreed to maintain November production targets unchanged, while highlighting persistent market tightness and volatility. United States crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, contrary to expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels. Refinery utilisation rose to 92.7%, while gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels to 204.7 million barrels. Distillate inventories remained nearly unchanged at 105.1 million barrels, despite expectations for a 2.1 million barrel decline. Meanwhile, OPEC reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision. The International Energy Agency warned that prolonged Middle Eastern conflict could delay the normalisation of regional oil flows into 2027, while declining inventories and strained refining capacity increase the risk of further market tightening. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh buying, with prices rising Rs. 312 alongside a 3.95% increase in open interest to 9,761 contracts, indicating strengthening bullish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 8,655, followed by Rs. 8,447. Resistance stands at Rs. 9,053, and a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery toward Rs. 9,243.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8447-9243.

* Crude oil prices rose on persistent worries about supply from the Middle East amid an increase in attacks on shipping.

* IEA members expressed support for accelerating the release of around 100 mbls to market that were pledged back in March

* Guyana oil output down to 832,000 barrels per day in August

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 1.32% lower at 305.8 as higher domestic storage levels temporarily outweighed expectations of stronger heating demand and persistent supply tightness in global markets. However, further downside remained limited by expectations of increased gas flows to liquefied natural gas export facilities, including Freeport in Texas and Cove Point in Maryland. Tropical Storm Isaias was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane before approaching the Gulf Coast, raising concerns about potential disruptions to energy infrastructure. Average United States gas production declined from record levels of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September to 111.5 billion cubic feet per day in October, partly due to pipeline disruptions and operational issues. Meanwhile, gas demand, including exports, was projected to decline from 105.4 billion cubic feet per day this week to 104.1 billion cubic feet per day next week. Average gas flows to nine major United States liquefied natural gas export plants fell to 16.9 billion cubic feet per day in October from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September and a record 18.8 billion cubic feet per day in April. United States energy companies added 85 billion cubic feet to storage during the week ended October 2, 2026, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 79 billion cubic feet. Total inventories increased to 3.500 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.6% below the corresponding period last year. The Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to rise from 107.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 112.2 billion in 2026 and 116.1 billion in 2027. Domestic consumption is forecast to increase from 91.9 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 to 92.4 billion in 2026 and 93.8 billion in 2027. Liquefied natural gas exports are expected to reach 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion in 2027. Technically, natural gas is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with prices declining Rs. 4.1 while open interest increased 1.81% to 30,277 contracts, indicating additional bearish positioning. Immediate support is placed at 299, followed by 292.1. Resistance stands at 315.8, and a sustained move above this level could extend recovery toward 325.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 292.1-325.7.

* Natural gas fell as higher domestic storage momentarily offset persistent supply tightness elsewhere.

* Freeport feedgas is set for a one-week high after earlier restart delays

* Tropical Storm Isaias to strengthen into hurricane before hitting near Alabama on Friday

Copper

Copper settled 0.85% lower at Rs. 1,407.45 as a stronger United States dollar and rising oil prices weighed on sentiment, although renewed buying interest from China limited further losses. Expectations of restocking following China’s week-long holiday supported the market, with the Yangshan copper import premium rising 5% from its previous assessment to $125 per tonne, the highest since November 2022. Supply concerns persisted as workers at Chile’s Centinela copper mine remained on strike, while BHP sought government mediation to avert a potential strike at Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine. Chilean copper production declined 12.8% year on year in August due to storm-related disruptions and lower ore grades. On the London Metal Exchange, copper inventories remained tight following 3,325 tonnes of cancelled warehouse orders. The cash contract premium over the three-month forward contract increased to $120 per tonne from approximately $89, signalling tightening nearby supply. Bank of America raised its long-term copper price forecast, citing constrained supply outside the United States and persistent tightness in China, although elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions remained near-term headwinds. Meanwhile, COMEX copper speculators reduced net long positions by 3,940 contracts to 78,709 in the week ending September 29. The International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper market deficit of 51,000 tonnes in July, narrowing from 74,000 tonnes in June. However, the market recorded a cumulative surplus of 32,000 tonnes during the first seven months, compared with 157,000 tonnes a year earlier. July refined copper production reached 2.41 million tonnes against consumption of 2.46 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports declined to 382,000 tonnes in August from 425,000 tonnes in July, while January to August imports fell 6.7% year on year to 3.30 million tonnes. Technically, copper is witnessing long liquidation, with prices declining Rs. 12 alongside a 4.31% fall in open interest to 8,051 contracts. Support is placed at Rs. 1,397.60, followed by Rs. 1,387.80, while resistance stands at Rs. 1,425.10. A sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 1,442.80.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1387.8-1442.8.

* Copper dropped as a strong dollar and rising oil prices weighed.

* LME copper stocks remain tight after 3,325 tons of orders for metal from warehouses.

* The Yangshan premium, rose 5% from its last pre-holiday assessment to $125 a ton, its highest since November 2022.

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.39% lower at Rs. 413.75 as the United States dollar strengthened toward an 18-month high, supported by rising oil prices and expectations of further monetary tightening. However, downside remained limited by tightening supply conditions and production disruptions across major producing regions. China’s refined zinc production declined 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September 2026, although output exceeded expectations as some major smelters avoided anticipated production cuts. Lower production in Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Anhui and Henan contributed to the decline, while maintenance completions and production ramp-ups in Hunan, Yunnan and Gansu provided partial support. Separately, China’s zinc output fell 1.8% year on year to 639,000 tonnes in August, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. Zinc inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined 1.8% from the previous Friday, indicating some tightening in domestic availability. On the supply side, Nyrstar initiated a strategic review of its Dutch zinc smelting operations, while Japan’s Mitsui Kinzoku planned refined zinc production of 117,700 tonnes during the second half of fiscal 2026, up 32% year on year. However, expectations of increased Chinese export deliveries to London Metal Exchange warehouses, alongside weakness in copper, added pressure to prices. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 13,000 tonnes in July, as production increased 0.3% to 1.190 million tonnes, exceeding demand of 1.177 million tonnes, which rose 0.56%. Meanwhile, global zinc mine production declined 8% year on year to approximately 995,000 tonnes, marking its fifth consecutive monthly contraction and the steepest decline since May 2024. Technically, zinc is witnessing long liquidation, with prices declining Rs. 5.85 while open interest decreased 0.09% to 2,134 contracts. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 407.80, followed by Rs. 401.60. Resistance stands at Rs. 425, and a sustained move above this level could extend the recovery toward Rs. 436.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 401.6-436.

* Zinc dropped as dollar rose aided by higher oil prices, and remarks from policymakers for signals on a potential rate hike.

* The cash-to-three-month spread was $47.71 in backwardation.

* In September 2026, China's refined zinc production fell 1.9% MoM and 6.4% YoY.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 1.83% lower at Rs. 333.45 as expectations of recovering Middle Eastern production and rising Indonesian shipments improved global supply prospects. Japanese buyers agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October to December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting easing supply concerns. However, downside remained limited by expectations of improving demand and relatively tight near-term availability amid Chinese downstream restocking. Macquarie reduced its forecast for the 2026 global aluminium market deficit by 120,000 tonnes to 820,000 tonnes, citing faster than expected restarts in the Middle East, while projecting a surplus of 410,000 tonnes in 2027. Emirates Global Aluminium restarted a quarter of its Al Taweelah smelter in Abu Dhabi following damage caused by an Iranian attack in March. Meanwhile, Chinese aluminium exports increased 17.2% year on year in August amid subdued domestic demand and elevated inventories. Aluminium stocks at three major Japanese ports rose 22.7% month on month to 246,600 tonnes at the end of August. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following cyclone-related disruptions and contamination at its Australian refinery. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production declined 1.5% year on year in August. Chinese production increased 3% to a record 3.87 million tonnes, while Gulf Cooperation Council output plunged 43% to 299,000 tonnes. Inventories declined by 57,244 tonnes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and 15,575 tonnes on the London Metal Exchange, indicating tighter availability despite improving production prospects. Chinese exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium semis reached 643,000 tonnes in July, up 18.6% year on year but down 9.6% month on month. Cumulative January to July exports increased 16.7% to 4.04 million tonnes. Technically, aluminium is witnessing fresh selling, with prices declining Rs. 6.20 while open interest increased 3.68% to 4,961 contracts, indicating additional bearish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 330.40, followed by Rs. 327.40. Resistance stands at Rs. 338.70, and a sustained move above this level could extend recovery toward Rs. 344.00.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 327.4-344.

* Aluminium dropped weighed down by a recovery in Middle Eastern production and rising shipments from Indonesia.

* Improving supply prospects were reflected by some Japanese aluminium buyers agreeing to pay a premium 35% lower than in Q3

* Macquarie downgraded their forecast for this year's deficit in the global aluminium market to 820,000 tons, down 120,000 tons
 

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 0.21% lower at Rs. 22,176 due to profit booking following recent gains driven by drought-related crop losses in Karnataka and concerns over tightening supplies. According to a joint survey by the Karnataka Horticulture and Revenue Departments and the Karnataka State Disaster Management Authority, turmeric crop losses reached 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 18,824 lakh, against the state's estimated cultivation area of 18,000–20,000 hectares. Reduced carryover stocks, deficient rainfall during early crop development and concerns over the potential impact of El Nino continued to support prices. Industry estimates indicate carryforward stocks of approximately 15 lakh bags, compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season, reducing the overall supply buffer. However, improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased immediate drought concerns. Reservoir replenishment in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh improved water availability, while completed re-sowing in North Karnataka supported crop recovery prospects. Selling pressure from farmers seeking to liquidate stocks during the peak harvest period limited further gains. European Union maximum residue limit regulations also affected commercial-grade turmeric, with non-compliant lots facing rejection, while demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric supported compliant stocks. India's turmeric exports declined 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April–July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes against 63,020 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. Export growth remained strong across several destinations, with shipments to Turkey rising 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka increasing 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria surging 983% to 69 tonnes. In the Nizamabad spot market, turmeric prices ended at Rs. 21,395.25, gaining 1.7%, indicating strength in the physical market despite weakness in futures. Technically, turmeric is witnessing long liquidation, with prices declining Rs. 46 while open interest decreased 1.14% to 35,435 contracts. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 22,004, followed by Rs. 21,832. Resistance stands at Rs. 22,344, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs. 22,512.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 21832-22512.

* Turmeric dropped on profit booking after prices rose as drought conditions in Karnataka have severely affected crop.

* Some support also seen due to deficient rain and fear of the crop being affected.

* The carryforward stocks we had in the past 3-4 years have declined.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 21395.25 Rupees gained by 1.7 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.98% higher at Rs. 24,710, supported by tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds and declining arrivals across major trading centres, including Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Although overall physical crop availability remains relatively stable, export-grade seeds with high purity and quality specifications are becoming increasingly scarce. European and North American buyers have returned to the market for residue-compliant supplies, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to disrupt logistics and weaken demand from traditional buyers. However, gains remained limited by aggressive farmer selling, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious procurement by industrial spice processors, who continue to favour hand-to-mouth purchases over bulk buying. Reports of blight disease in Gujarat have raised concerns over crop quality and marketable output, while improved production prospects in Turkey and Syria are weighing on Indian export premiums. India's cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season, down from 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production projected at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. Adverse weather has reduced China's production estimate to 70,000–80,000 tonnes, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. India's jeera exports declined 32% year on year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026. Cumulative April–July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes from 73,026 tonnes a year earlier. Exports to Singapore surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, while shipments to China plunged 88% to 710 tonnes, highlighting uneven international demand. In the Unjha spot market, prices declined 0.95% to Rs. 24,543.40, contrasting with gains in futures. Technically, jeera is witnessing short covering, with prices rising Rs. 240 while open interest declined 9.35% to 3,723 contracts. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 24,410, followed by Rs. 24,100. Resistance stands at Rs. 25,040, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs. 25,360.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24100-25360.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* India’s jeera exports declined 32% YoY to 9,318 tonnes in July-2026 from 13,779 tonnes in July-2025.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24543.4 Rupees dropped by -0.95 percent.

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