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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by 2.21%, settling at Rs140,309, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed crude oil prices higher and revived concerns that inflationary pressures could keep global interest rates elevated for longer. The exchange of missile and drone attacks between the U.S. and Iran, along with Tehran's announcement of another closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increased uncertainty across financial markets. Investors are now closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, alongside upcoming U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail sales data, for fresh signals on inflation and the future direction of monetary policy. Fundamentally, the Federal Reserve's latest report indicated that inflation accelerated further due to tariff impacts, higher energy costs, and continued investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. COMEX data showed speculative net long positions in gold declined by 1,964 contracts, reflecting reduced bullish sentiment. HSBC also lowered its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027, citing expectations of a stronger U.S. dollar and a more hawkish monetary policy outlook. Physical demand remained mixed, with Indian markets witnessing wider discounts due to price volatility, while China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, recording its largest monthly reserve addition since October 2023. London vault holdings also edged higher during May. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 6.49% alongside a sharp decline in prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs139,330, with a break below likely to extend losses toward Rs138,350. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs141,995, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward Rs143,680.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 138350-143680.

*  Gold slid amid reviving expectations of elevated interest rates to combat inflationary pressures.

*  Kevin Warsh's first semiannual testimony, along with a slate of key U.S. economic data including June CPI, PPI and retail sales, will be closely watched

*  COMEX gold speculators cut net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 in the week to July 7, data showed.

Silver

Silver prices declined 2.22%, settling at Rs 217,718, as heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp rise in crude oil prices, increasing concerns that inflation could remain elevated and force central banks to maintain a tighter monetary policy stance. The U.S. conducted another strike against Iran following an attack on a commercial vessel, while Tehran reiterated its intention to close the Strait of Hormuz, adding to uncertainty across global financial markets. Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony for further guidance on interest rate expectations. Economic data from the United States presented a mixed picture. Existing home sales declined 2.4% in June to an annualized pace of 4.09 million units, missing market expectations, while initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 215,000, highlighting continued resilience in the labor market. New York Fed President John Williams emphasized that demand driven by artificial intelligence remains a significant contributor to inflation. Markets currently anticipate one additional Federal Reserve rate hike before the end of the year. Meanwhile, CFTC data showed COMEX silver speculators reduced their net long positions by 616 contracts to 12,131 contracts, reflecting weaker bullish sentiment. On the physical market front, London vault silver holdings increased 0.6% during May. India's silver imports plunged 87% in value and 94% in volume from a year earlier after the government tightened import restrictions and raised import duties to curb precious metal inflows and protect foreign exchange reserves. Technically, silver is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 2.91%, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 216,240, followed by Rs 214,760. Resistance is seen at Rs 220,235, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 222,750.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 214760-222750.

* Silver fell as renewed missile strikes between the US and Iran drove oil prices higher, fueling expectations of interest-rate hikes.

* Investors are also awaiting key US inflation data due this week for further clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

* Markets currently expect the Fed to deliver one more interest-rate hike before the end of the year.

Crude oil 

Crude oil prices surged 8.01%, settling at Rs 7,360, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over global energy supplies. Iran expanded missile strikes on Gulf nations following renewed U.S. military action, raising fears of disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy transit route. While Iran declared the strait closed after an alleged shipping violation, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that commercial traffic remains open. The continuing uncertainty surrounding the region has significantly increased the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices. Fundamentally, the International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply increased by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, although production remains well below pre-war levels. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Middle East production to recover gradually, with most disrupted output returning by the first quarter of 2027. It also forecasts oil markets will move back into oversupply as inventories build, creating downside pressure on prices over the medium term. OPEC+ agreed to raise production targets by 188,000 barrels per day from August, continuing its gradual supply increase despite ongoing regional disruptions. Meanwhile, CFTC data showed money managers reduced net long crude positions by 19,507 contracts, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. U.S. inventory data showed crude oil stocks declined by 3.775 million barrels, while gasoline inventories also fell, indicating steady fuel demand. However, distillate inventories increased, Cushing crude stocks posted their first weekly build in nine weeks, and net crude imports rose, presenting a mixed supply picture. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 11.35% alongside a sharp price rally. Immediate support is placed at Rs 7,069, followed by Rs 6,779. Resistance is seen at Rs 7,538, and a sustained breakout above this level could drive prices toward Rs 7,717.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 6779-7717.

* Crude oil prices jumped as Iran expanded strikes on Gulf states following attacks by the United States.

* Global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, but remained 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels – IEA

* Global oil output and trade flows should rebound fully by the end of this year from the disruptions caused by the Iran war – EIA

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined 0.68%, settling at Rs 278.4, as a milder weather outlook, lower LNG export demand, and comfortable supply conditions weighed on market sentiment. Updated weather forecasts pointed to cooler temperatures across key U.S. regions, reducing expectations for air-conditioning demand and gas-fired power generation. At the same time, gas deliveries to Freeport LNG declined after the exporter began a major maintenance turnaround at its pre-treatment and liquefaction facilities on July 10, with maintenance expected to continue until the end of August. These developments limited near-term demand despite the broader positive outlook for LNG exports. Fundamentally, the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed domestic natural gas inventories remain well supplied, standing 6.6% above the five-year average as of July 3. Storage levels increased by 61 billion cubic feet during the week, exceeding market expectations of a 49 bcf build and surpassing both last year's increase and the five-year seasonal average. CFTC data also showed speculative net long positions declined by 1,597 contracts to 7,366 contracts, indicating softer bullish sentiment. Looking ahead, the EIA expects both U.S. natural gas production and consumption to reach record highs over the next two years. Dry gas production is forecast to increase steadily through 2027, while LNG exports are projected to rise significantly, reflecting expanding export capacity and stronger international demand over the longer term. From a technical perspective, natural gas is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 4.14% alongside lower prices, indicating the unwinding of existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 274.2, with further downside support at Rs 269.9. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 281.8, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 285.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 269.9-285.1.

* Natural gas dropped amid expectations of reduced gas flows to LNG export facilities, and comfortable supply conditions.

* Forecasts shifted toward cooler temperatures in the coming weeks, likely curbing demand for gas-fired power generation.

* Freeport LNG deliveries fell as the exporter began a major maintenance turnaround.

Copper

Copper prices edged higher by 0.21%, settling at Rs 1,296.3, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and tightening global supply conditions. Copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses have fallen more than 20% since the end of May to a four-month low, while a high level of cancelled warrants indicates additional metal is scheduled to leave exchange warehouses, reinforcing near-term supply concerns. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have raised fears of higher energy prices and persistent inflation, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Investors are now awaiting U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony for further policy guidance. Fundamentally, supply conditions remained supportive as Chile reported sharp production declines across its major copper mines, including Codelco, Escondida, and Collahuasi. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also dropped 18.3% over the week, reflecting firm physical demand. The International Copper Study Group reported a 145,000-ton refined copper deficit in April as global consumption exceeded production. Meanwhile, China's refined copper production increased, supported by strong investment in power infrastructure despite weaker concentrate imports. China's central bank reiterated its commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policy to stimulate domestic demand, while stronger investment in the country's power grid continued to support copper consumption. Goldman Sachs and Citi also raised their medium-term copper price forecasts, citing tighter global mine supply and stronger demand expectations. From a technical perspective, copper is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.72% alongside higher prices, indicating renewed bullish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs 1,285.2, with further support at Rs1,274.1. Resistance is seen at Rs 1,306, and a sustained breakout above this level could extend gains toward Rs1,315.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1274.1-1315.7.

* Copper prices gained as the dollar eased and falling copper inventories.

* Copper stocks in LME warehouses have dropped more than 20% since the end of May to a four-month low of 305,200 tons.

* Chile's copper output from major producers fell sharply in May, with Codelco’s production down 18.3% year-on-year to 106,300 metric tons.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined 0.58%, settling at Rs 374.15, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East increased concerns over inflation and the possibility of further interest rate hikes, weighing on the demand outlook for industrial metals. The latest exchange of military strikes between the U.S. and Iran, along with uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, pushed energy prices higher and strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance. Investors are now focused on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony for further guidance on monetary policy. Despite the decline, downside remained limited due to tightening supply conditions. A fire at a sulphuric acid production unit at a South Korean zinc smelter, reduced operations at Glencore's Kazzinc facility in Kazakhstan, temporary disruptions at Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter in Peru, and production concerns at Boliden's Garpenberg mine continued to support the market. Manufacturing activity remained resilient across China, Europe, and the United States, providing additional support for industrial metal demand. China's zinc production increased 9.4% year-on-year in May, while Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories rose 0.6%, indicating stable domestic supply. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market surplus narrowed significantly in April, reflecting improving supply-demand balance. Goldman Sachs expects a modest global surplus this year before slower mine supply growth shifts markets toward tighter conditions in the coming years. From a technical perspective, zinc is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 2.53% alongside lower prices, indicating profit booking by existing long positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 373.1, followed by Rs 371.9. Resistance is seen at Rs 375.7, and a sustained move above this level could lift prices toward Rs 377.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 371.9-377.1.

* Zinc dropped as escalating tensions in the Middle East kept inflationary pressures and interest-rate hike expectations in focus.

* China's zinc production in May rose 9.40% year-on-year to 64,000 metric tons.

* However downside seen limited after reports a fire broke out in a sulphuric acid production unit at a South Korean zinc smelter.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices rose 0.40%, settling at Rs 339.80, supported by ongoing supply concerns and tightening exchange inventories. Visible aluminium stocks in LME-registered warehouses remained at their lowest level since 2022, while Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories declined 4.8%, highlighting firm physical demand. Renewed geopolitical uncertainty following fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets also revived concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for Gulf aluminium exports. However, gains were capped by easing tensions in the Middle East and expectations of improving regional supply. Fundamentally, Emirates Global Aluminium announced the restart of its Al Taweelah alumina refinery after a three-and-a-half-month outage, with production expected to reach 50% capacity within days and full capacity by the end of the year. This development is expected to gradually improve alumina availability. Japanese buyers agreed to pay a $395 per metric ton premium for July-September aluminium shipments, reflecting strong regional demand. Meanwhile, global primary aluminium production declined 1.7% year-on-year in May, according to the International Aluminium Institute. In China, aluminium production rose 1.7% year-on-year while exports increased strongly, supported by elevated overseas prices. Morgan Stanley expects the aluminium market deficit to narrow during 2026 before shifting into a surplus in 2027, although demand from expanding data centre construction is expected to remain supportive over the medium term. From a technical perspective, aluminium is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 0.23% while prices moved higher, indicating the exit of bearish positions. Immediate support is placed at Rs 338.5, with further downside support at Rs 337.2. Resistance is seen at Rs 341.3, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 342.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 337.2-342.8.

* Aluminium gained amid supply concerns and LME stocks were at their lowest levels since 2022.

* Morgan Stanley forecasts a smaller aluminum deficit of 1.1 million tons in 2026 versus the previous forecast of 1.8 million tons.

* Emirates Global Aluminium said it had restarted its alumina refinery in the United Arab Emirates after a 3-1/2-month outage

Turmeric

Turmeric prices rallied 5.52%, settling at Rs 20,036, supported by a sharp decline in market arrivals, tight spot supplies, and steady export demand. Total arrivals dropped to around 8,500 bags from 18,000 bags in the previous session, primarily due to the closure of major markets in Maharashtra. The significant reduction in arrivals strengthened spot market sentiment, while limited carry-forward stocks continued to support prices. However, increased selling by farmers during the peak marketing season and quality concerns in some arrivals have prevented a sharper rally. Fundamentally, good rainfall across major turmeric-growing regions over the past week has improved sowing prospects for the ongoing Kharif season. With prices trading near multi-year highs, farmers are expected to increase acreage, although the final sowing pace will largely depend on the distribution of monsoon rainfall and any potential impact from El Niño conditions. Improved rainfall has eased concerns over the upcoming crop, creating a slightly softer medium-term outlook despite the current tight supply situation. Industry estimates indicate carry-forward stocks have declined to around 15 lakh bags, compared to over 20 lakh bags last season, keeping overall market availability limited. Export demand remained supportive, with India's turmeric exports rising 0.6% year-on-year in April 2026. Strong shipments to China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Brazil, and Japan offset lower exports to the UAE and the United States, while demand for Integrated Pest Management (IPM) certified turmeric from European buyers continued to provide additional support. From a technical perspective, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 0.31% alongside higher prices, indicating renewed bullish participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs 19,398, followed by Rs 18,760. Resistance is seen at Rs 20,400, and a sustained move above this level could extend gains toward Rs 20,764.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 18760-20764.

* Turmeric prices rallied due to lower arrivals, tight spot supplies, steady export demand.

* Total arrivals were estimated at around 8,500 bags, down sharply from 18,000 bags in the previous session.

* Good rainfall has been reported over the past five to six days, which is expected to accelerate sowing activities.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 18590.15 Rupees gained by 7.9 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices slipped 0.44%, settling at Rs 20,485, as profit booking emerged after recent gains driven by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds. Although overall crop availability remains adequate, the supply of export-grade, high-purity seeds has declined more rapidly than expected, supporting underlying market sentiment. Daily arrivals across major trading centres such as Unjha and Rajasthan have continued to decline. However, gains were capped as farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate cash for Kharif sowing, while improved harvesting conditions enabled quicker arrivals into the market. Fundamentally, market sentiment remained mixed. The steady build-up in NCDEX warehouse stocks reduced the urgency for spot procurement, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to disrupt export logistics and demand from traditional buyers. Chinese buying remained cautious and price-sensitive, while domestic spice processors continued with hand-to-mouth purchases instead of aggressive inventory building. At the same time, expectations of improved production in Turkey and Syria weighed on Indian export premiums. Despite this, demand for residue-compliant and premium-quality lots from European and North American buyers remained supportive. Production estimates for the current season have been revised lower to around 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing acreage. India's jeera exports declined 18% year-on-year in April 2026, mainly due to a sharp fall in shipments to the UAE, although stronger exports to Morocco, the United States, Mexico, and Brazil partially offset the decline. From a technical perspective, jeera is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 8.48% alongside lower prices, indicating new short positions entering the market. Immediate support is placed at Rs 20,360, followed by Rs 20,230. Resistance is seen at Rs 20,560, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward Rs 20,630.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 20230-20630.

* Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* Favorable weather in North-West India allowed farmers to complete harvesting and drying faster than expected

* NCDEX warehouse stocks have shown a steady build-up, reducing the urgency for spot procurement by traders.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20265.55 Rupees dropped by -0.45 percent.

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