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Gold

Gold yesterday settled higher by 1.31% at ?1,26,256 as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid intensifying US-China trade tensions and renewed expectations of US interest rate cuts. The geopolitical landscape remained tense after China announced further retaliatory measures against US firms, following President Trump’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports. Additionally, concerns grew over the prolonged US government shutdown, which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned is starting to impact the economy. Traders now widely anticipate a 25-bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October and another in December, supporting bullish sentiment in precious metals. On the physical front, India’s gold demand stayed robust despite record-high prices, with jewellers stocking up ahead of key festivals, pushing local premiums to $15 per ounce from $9 last week. In contrast, China’s demand remained weak post-holiday, with discounts of $48–$60 per ounce being offered to attract buyers. Switzerland’s gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tons, while shipments to India rose to 15.2 tons, indicating strong Asian appetite despite high prices. Exports to the US fell sharply due to tariff-related uncertainties. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped by 0.36% to 15,648 lots while prices gained ?1,627. Gold now finds support at ?1,24,690 and ?1,23,125, while resistance is seen at ?1,27,375, with a potential test of ?1,28,495 if bullish momentum persists.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 123125-128495.

* Gold gained to record as safe-haven demand strengthened by slowing global growth and political uncertainty.

* US President Donald Trump reignited trade war fears, threatening new tariffs and export controls on China.

* US government shutdown continues to weigh on sentiment — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned of economic strain.

Silver

Silver yesterday settled sharply higher, rising 3.14% to close at ?1,59,504 amid a historic short squeeze and tightening liquidity in the London market, which forced traders to rush for physical supply worldwide. Lease rates in London spiked over 30%, making it costly to maintain short positions, while strong physical demand from India further tightened global availability. The surge followed earlier shipments to New York amid tariff-related concerns. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the potential Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea also added to safe-haven buying interest. Expectations of another U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month, and possibly another in December, continued to support precious metals. Investment demand remains robust, with global silver ETP inflows hitting 95 million ounces in H1 2025, lifting total holdings to 1.13 billion ounces — just 7% below the 2021 peak. The value of these holdings surpassed $40 billion for the first time. Retail demand showed mixed trends, remaining strong in India with a 7% YoY rise, while Europe’s recovery continued modestly. According to the Silver Institute, the global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces in 2025 due to slightly higher supply and lower demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest jumped 11.71% to 26,850 lots, with prices gaining ?4,859. Silver now finds support at ?1,54,840 and ?1,50,180 below that, while resistance is seen at ?1,63,430, with a potential test of ?1,67,360 on a breakout.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 150180-167360.

* Silver rallied above 162000 as tight supply in London drives prices.

* Traders flying silver bars across the Atlantic to exploit price gaps between London & New York.

* Lease rates spike above 30%, creating heavy costs for short sellers.

Crude oil

Crude oil yesterday settled lower by 1.32% at ?5,233 as bearish sentiment deepened following the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest outlook, which signaled a growing global supply surplus. The IEA raised its global oil supply growth forecast to 3 million barrels per day for 2025 and 2.4 million bpd for 2026, citing rising OPEC+ production and strong output from the Americas. At the same time, demand growth estimates were trimmed to around 700,000 bpd for both years, raising concerns of oversupply. The agency also warned of swelling inventories, particularly as large crude shipments reach major hubs, with stock builds already visible in China and the U.S. OPEC’s monthly report painted a slightly more optimistic view, maintaining demand growth expectations of 1.3 million bpd for 2025 and 1.4 million for 2026, while noting that the group’s September output rose by 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million bpd as members accelerated unwinding production cuts. Meanwhile, U.S. EIA data showed crude inventories rising by 1.8 million barrels last week to 416.5 million, while gasoline and distillate stocks also increased, reinforcing near-term supply pressure. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, as open interest fell by 8.2% to 9,070 lots while prices dropped Rs.70. Crude oil now has support at Rs.5,138, and a break below could test Rs.5,044, while resistance is seen at Rs.5,318; a sustained move above this may push prices toward Rs.5,404.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5044-5404.

* Crude oil fell after the IEA’s market outlook reinforced expectations of a growing supply surplus.

* The IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth to 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million in 2026

* OPEC said in its monthly report that global demand would grow by 1.3 million barrels a day this year and 1.4 million in 2026.

Natural gas

Natural gas yesterday settled lower by 2.57% at Rs.269.4 as mild weather forecasts and ample storage levels reduced concerns over supply tightness. Updated weather models indicated warmer-than-normal conditions persisting through late October, delaying any significant rise in heating demand. According to NatGasWeather, notable cooling is unlikely until the final week of the month. Meanwhile, production in the Lower 48 states averaged 106.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, slightly below September’s 107.4 bcfd and August’s record of 108 bcfd. The earlier production surge contributed to strong storage injections, with inventories now 4% higher than the five-year average. U.S. utilities added 80 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas into storage for the week ended October 3, lifting total stocks to 3,641 Bcf — 23 Bcf above last year’s level and 157 Bcf higher than the five-year norm. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continue to lend support, with feedgas deliveries averaging 16.3 bcfd this month and peaking at 17 bcfd following the restart of Berkshire Hathaway’s Cove Point terminal. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects record-high gas output and consumption in 2025 before easing in 2026, alongside rising LNG exports. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure as open interest surged 8.98% to 40,907 lots while prices dropped Rs.7.1. Natural gas finds support at Rs.265.7, with further downside possible to ?261.9, while resistance is seen at Rs.275.1; a break above could push prices toward Rs.280.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 261.9-280.7.

* Natural gas fell as mild weather forecasts and robust storage levels eased concerns over supply tightness.

* Updated outlooks showed warmer-than-normal conditions through late October, curbing expectations for heating demand.

* NatGasWeather said that significant cooling may not arrive until the final week of the month.

Copper

Copper yesterday settled lower by 0.95% at ?994 as renewed concerns over a prolonged U.S.-China trade conflict weighed on market sentiment. China’s retaliatory restrictions on five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean, following Washington’s probes into Chinese maritime and shipbuilding sectors, heightened trade tensions. Both nations also imposed additional port fees on shipping firms, though Beijing granted exemptions for domestic vessels. The escalating friction triggered a risk-off mood, overshadowing ongoing supply concerns stemming from mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia. Chile’s state-owned Codelco reported its weakest monthly output in over two decades, while operations at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine remain constrained after last month’s fatal accident. China’s Yangshan copper premium fell 8% to a two-month low of $45 per ton, reflecting softer import demand, while LME spreads widened sharply as traders rolled over short positions ahead of contract expiries. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported a 57,000-ton global surplus in July compared to a 14,000-ton deficit in June, projecting a refined copper surplus of about 178,000 tons in 2025 before swinging to a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026. Meanwhile, Chinese copper concentrate imports declined 6.2% in September to 2.59 million tons due to lower exports from Indonesia’s Grasberg mine. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest fell by 0.18% to 6,578 lots while prices slipped Rs.9.5. Copper now finds support at Rs.977.9, with a break below exposing Rs.961.9, whereas resistance is seen at Rs.1,011; a move above could lift prices toward Rs.1,028.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 961.9-1028.1.

* Copper slipped as renewed fears of a prolonged US-China trade conflict rattled global markets.

* China, the Yangshan copper premium , which reflects demand for copper imports, fell 8% to a two-month low of $45 a ton.

* The IMF projects global economic growth to slow to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024.

Zinc

Zinc yesterday settled down by 1% at Rs.291.3 as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of rising global output pressured prices. Beijing’s decision to impose special port fees on U.S.-linked vessels came as a direct response to President Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, adding uncertainty to global trade flows. Meanwhile, Chinese zinc producers are reportedly preparing to boost exports to capitalize on higher overseas prices, intensifying concerns of oversupply. However, steep declines in inventories provided some cushion—LME zinc stocks have plunged nearly 80% this year, from 230,000 tons in January to just 40,850 tons by October. On the supply side, Japan’s Mitsui Mining and Smelting plans to produce 106,500 tons of refined zinc in H2 FY2025/26, down 6.6% year-on-year, following the closure of Toho Zinc’s Annaka plant. Globally, the zinc market recorded a surplus of 30,200 tons in July after a 21,100-ton deficit in June, according to ILZSG data. For the first seven months of 2025, the refined zinc surplus stood at 72,000 tons, smaller than the 185,000-ton surplus seen a year earlier. Chinese refined zinc output in July rose 3% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year, driven by resumed production and new capacity additions in Henan and Yunnan. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest fell by 9.47% to 2,934 lots while prices declined Rs.2.95. Zinc now finds support at ?288.6, with a break below exposing ?285.7, while resistance is seen at Rs.295.3; a move above could push prices toward Rs.299.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 285.7-299.1.

* Zinc dropped pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and prospects of rising output.

* Chinese zinc producer is preparing to sell metal overseas, taking advantage of higher international prices.

* LME zinc stocks have fallen from 230,000 tons in January to just 40,850 tons by October.

Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday settled down by 0.21% at ?263.6 as renewed U.S.-China trade tensions pressured prices amid concerns over global demand. Markets turned cautious after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed President Trump’s upcoming meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October, while China trimmed its base metals output growth target to 1.5% annually for 2025–2026, down from 5%, aligning with its 45 million-ton aluminium production cap aimed at curbing deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, Alcoa’s decision to shut its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia on deteriorating ore grades added to supply concerns. On the demand front, optimism persisted with growing investments in data centers and stronger Chinese manufacturing activity, as reflected in the private PMI expansion. However, exports softened — China shipped 521,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and products in September, down from August’s 534,000 tonnes. Global aluminium fundamentals remain relatively tight, with the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reporting a supply deficit of 119,900 tons in July and a cumulative deficit of 985,300 tons from January to July 2025. International Aluminium Institute data showed global primary output rising modestly by 0.9% YoY to 6.277 million tonnes in August. Technically, the market is under long liquidation as open interest dropped by 9.6% to 3,222 lots while prices slipped Rs.0.55. Aluminium now finds support at Rs.261.2, with a break below likely testing Rs.258.9, whereas resistance is seen at Rs.265.8; a move above could open the door for a rally toward Rs.268.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 258.9-268.1.

* Aluminium prices fell due to worries about the trade tensions between the United States and China.

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Donald Trump remains on track to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in late October.

* Goldman Sachs revised its aluminium price forecast, projecting LME to fall to $2,350 per metric ton in Q426 from $2,700 currently.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged 2.04% to settle at Rs.13,836, supported by reports of crop damage due to excessive rainfall in major growing regions such as Nanded, where nearly 15% of the standing crop has been affected. Lower stocks in Warangal and minimal arrivals over the past few days have also lent support to prices. However, gains were partially capped by expectations of higher acreage this season, as favorable monsoon conditions encouraged farmers to expand sowing by 15–20%. The area under turmeric for the 2024–25 season is estimated at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year. Despite improved acreage, weather uncertainties and concerns over rainfall distribution in parts of South India have kept traders cautious. At the Duggirala market, new turmeric arrivals are witnessing strong buyer interest, with fresh produce commanding a premium over older stock due to better quality. Daily trading volumes remain active between 1,000–1,200 bags, with roughly half of the new crop already traded. On the export front, turmeric shipments rose 2.29% during April–July 2025 to 63,020 tonnes compared to 61,609 tonnes last year, reflecting steady overseas demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 5.23% to 11,075 while prices rose Rs.276. Turmeric finds support at Rs.13,580 and Rs.13,326, while resistance is seen at Rs.14,230; a breakout above could push prices toward Rs.14,626.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 13326-14626.

* Turmeric gains as recent rainfall has caused damage to standing turmeric crops in major growing regions.

* Recent heavy rainfall in Nanded has adversely affected the region's turmeric cultivation, damaging approximately 15% of the crop area.

* While upside capped amid increase in acreage due to favourable rains during the current sowing season.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13574.95 Rupees gained by 2.93 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled marginally higher by 0.03% at Rs.19,130 amid weak export demand following the end of the retail season. The market found some support after the GST Council reduced the tax rate on jeera to 5%, a move expected to boost FMCG exports and domestic consumption. However, sentiment remained subdued due to comfortable supplies and limited buying interest from overseas markets. Farmers currently hold about 20 lakh bags of cumin, with only 3–4 lakh bags expected to be traded by the season’s end, leading to an estimated carry-forward stock of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags, owing to reduced sowing in key regions. Gujarat is projected to produce around 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. Globally, cumin output in China, Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan has been affected by adverse weather and geopolitical tensions, though export demand for Indian jeera remains soft. Exports during April–July 2025 dropped 19.81% to 73,026 tonnes from 91,070 tonnes a year earlier, reflecting sluggish overseas buying. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest surged 16.32% to 3,015 while prices inched up Rs.5. Jeera has immediate support at ?19,040 and ?18,950, while resistance is seen at Rs.19,280; a breakout above this level could lift prices toward Rs.19,430 in the near term.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 18950-19430.

* Jeera prices settled flat due to weak export demand

* In July 2025 around 13778.60 tonnes of jeera were exported as against 16,322.06 tonnes in June 2025 showing a drop of 15.58%.

* GST council lowers GST rate to 5% which will support FMCG exports & domestic demand.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 18754 Rupees dropped by -0.28 percent.