Gold outlook ahead of Akshaya Tritiya: Inputs from InCred Money team
Indian households hold between 11–16% of all the gold ever mined above ground. That's more than the combined national reserves of the US, Germany, Italy, and Russia, the four largest gold-holding nations in the world. At its peak, India's private gold stock was estimated to exceed 100% of the country's GDP. One in every three Indian households voluntarily holds gold as a long-term store of wealth.
It's a multigenerational conviction, built through inflation cycles, currency crises, and geopolitical shocks. Gold has always been India's original alternative asset. Which makes the recent correction worth examining.
The 90% rally between March 2025 and March 2026 didn't happen in a vacuum. Central banks globally have been buying over 1,000 tonnes of gold annually since 2022, more than double the pace of the preceding decade. The catalyst was when the US & Allies froze $300 billion of Russia's foreign exchange reserves in 2022 which made it clear that Dollar-denominated assets can be weaponised. Gold held in your own vaults cannot.
That's why the RBI has been quietly flying its gold reserves back from London to India.
China made an equally consequential move in 2025, mandating its ten largest insurance companies to allocate up to 1% of total assets into physical gold. That's $45–53 billion, or 630–750 tonnes over three years, effectively 15–20% of all newly mined gold annually, redirected by a single policy decision. Layer in persistent geopolitical tensions and retail buying at a scale not seen in years, and a 90% rally starts to make sense. So does the correction that follows.
A pullback after a run of that magnitude was always a matter of when, not if.
What made the timing specific was two things hitting at once.
1.The Iran-Israel conflict pushed crude higher, reignited inflation fears, and took near-term rate cuts off the table.
2.And on January 30th, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh, a known inflation hawk, to lead the Federal Reserve sent a separate shock through markets. Investors read it as rates staying higher for longer. Gold dropped over 10% in a single session.
When multiple forces converge, a correction feels dramatic. But the structural story underneath hasn't changed. Geopolitical uncertainty hasn't eased. Central bank demand hasn't softened. Supply remains constrained. The correction is a pause, not a reversal.
For long-term investors, sharp corrections are entry opportunities, not exit signals.
What's equally interesting is the behavioural shift we're seeing on our platform. Investors are using digital gold far more dynamically than before, quickly booking profits on the way up, accumulating on the dip. That responsiveness is exactly what digital gold enables. The conviction hasn't gone anywhere. The execution has just gotten sharper.
Above views are of the author and not of the website kindly read disclaimer
