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Gold

Gold slipped 0.6% to settle at 1,54,819 as investors digested the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which struck a cautiously hawkish tone. While policymakers signaled that rates may need to stay higher for longer, they also left room for potential cuts if inflation cools as expected. The mixed messaging, combined with ongoing geopolitical tensions, kept the market volatile. On the trade front, Swiss gold exports fell 8% in January, mainly due to a sharp drop in shipments to the UK. However, flows to China and India rebounded strongly ahead of the Lunar New Year. In India, gold began trading at discounts of up to $12 per ounce as high prices dampened buying interest. Dealers are also holding back purchases in anticipation of concessional imports from the UAE. In contrast, Chinese demand remained firm, with bullion trading in a range from slight discounts to modest premiums before the holiday. China’s gold production rose 3.35% in 2025 to 552 tonnes, while total consumption declined 3.57%, reflecting weaker jewelry demand but strong investment buying in bars, coins, and ETFs. The country also continued adding to its official reserves for the 14th straight month. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 4.83%. Support is seen at 1,53,845 and 1,52,875, while resistance stands at 1,56,485; a move above this level could test 1,58,155.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 152875-158155.

* Gold dropped as traders weigh hawkish Federal Reserve meeting Minutes against persistent geopolitical tensions.

* FOMC’s January meeting Minutes, struck a cautiously hawkish tone, even as policymakers appeared divided on the monetary policy path.

* Swiss gold exports drop 8% in January as deliveries to UK fall

Silver

Silver dropped 1.18% to settle at 2,41,393 as a stronger U.S. dollar and firm economic signals weighed on sentiment. Comments from Federal Reserve officials reinforced a cautious stance. Governor Michael Barr indicated rates should remain steady until there is clearer progress on inflation, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee left the door open for cuts later this year if price pressures continue to ease. The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% in January after three cuts last year, and policymakers appear divided between controlling inflation and supporting growth. Although traders have slightly scaled back expectations, markets still anticipate two rate cuts before year-end. Economic data added to the mixed picture. U.S. durable goods orders fell 1.4% in December, though core orders excluding transportation showed resilience with a 0.9% rise. On the physical side, silver supply dynamics remain tight. Inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to near decade lows, around 318–350 tonnes, marking a dramatic drop from their 2021 peak. London vault holdings also edged down 0.3% in January to 27,729 tonnes. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest up 3.74%, indicating new short positions. Immediate support is seen at 2,38,075 and 2,34,750, while resistance stands at 2,46,660; a break above could push prices toward 2,51,920.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 234750-251920.

* Silver dropped as the dollar rallied on robust US economic data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

* Fed’s minutes revealed a split among policymakers, with some signaling that rate cuts would be appropriate if disinflation continues.

* Fed’s Daly said the U.S. central bank still needs to get inflation down, and that while artificial intelligence potentially helps in that regard

Crude oil

Crude oil jumped 2.45% to settle at 6,058, driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions. Concerns intensified after the U.S. deployed warships near Iran, while Washington signaled it may reconsider its diplomatic approach toward Tehran. At the same time, peace talks between Ukraine and Russia ended without progress, adding to uncertainty in key energy-producing regions. On the supply front, inventory data painted a mixed picture. According to the API, U.S. crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks all declined last week. However, EIA data showed a sharp 8.5 million-barrel build in crude inventories, along with a rise in gasoline stocks, even as distillates posted a larger-than-expected draw. Crude stocks at Cushing also increased, while refinery utilization slipped to 89.4%. Net U.S. crude imports rose significantly. Globally, OPEC is leaning toward resuming output hikes from April, while the IEA slightly raised its 2026 demand growth forecast but still expects a market surplus. Meanwhile, China’s imports of discounted Russian crude are set to hit a record in February. U.S. production is projected to ease after peaking in 2025. Technically, the market shows fresh buying, with open interest up 13.38%. Immediate support is seen at 5,967 and 5,875, while resistance stands at 6,124; a move above that level could push prices toward 6,189.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5875-6189.

* Crude oil gains driven by increasing concerns over potential military conflict between the United States and Iran.

* U.S. crude and gasoline stocks and distillate inventories fell last week, American Petroleum Institute figures.

* Two days of peace talks in Geneva between Ukraine and Russia ended without a breakthrough

Natural gas

Natural gas rose 2.71% to settle at 276.2, supported by near-record LNG export flows and expectations of stronger demand in the coming week. Output in the Lower 48 states has averaged 108.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January and not far from December’s record high of 109.7 bcfd. At the same time, flows to major U.S. LNG export plants climbed to 18.6 bcfd, putting February on track to surpass the previous monthly record. Storage data also lent support. Utilities withdrew 249 bcf in the week ended February 6, well above the five-year average draw for this period, as extreme cold boosted heating demand. Total inventories now stand at 2.214 tcf, about 4.2% below last year and 5.5% under the five-year average. Although weather forecasts indicate warmer-than-normal conditions through early March, cooler temperatures next week are expected to lift demand to around 133.1 bcfd. Looking ahead, the EIA projects U.S. gas production will reach fresh highs in 2026 and 2027, while consumption is expected to remain near record levels. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest down 18.82%. Immediate support is seen at 271.6 and 267, while resistance stands at 281.5; a breakout above this level could push prices toward 286.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 267-286.8.

* Natural gas edged up on near-record flows of gas to liquefied natural gas export plants.

* US energy firms withdrew 144 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage in the week ended February 13, 2026

* Average gas output in the Lower 48 states climbed to 108.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.

Copper

Copper declined 1.79% to settle at 1,160.25, pressured by rising exchange inventories and softer demand during the China holiday period. Sentiment was further weighed down after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated policymakers are in no hurry to cut rates, with some even open to hikes if inflation remains persistent. On the supply side, LME warehouse stocks rose to 225,575 tonnes, the highest since March 2025, while Shanghai inventories also climbed sharply. The cash LME contract trading at a $100 per tonne discount to the three-month contract signals comfortable near-term availability. The International Copper Study Group reported a 94,000-tonne global surplus in November, with output exceeding consumption, and a wider surplus for the year so far. China’s import data reflected weaker appetite, with 2025 unwrought copper imports falling 6.4% to their lowest since 2020. However, refined output in China has surged, and concentrate imports hit record highs. Meanwhile, mine disruptions continue to offer underlying support, with production declining in Chile and Peru. Looking ahead, expectations of strategic stockpiling by China and potentially the U.S., along with demand from green energy and AI sectors, could cushion downside risks. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 2.3%. Support is seen at 1,141.1 and 1,121.9, while resistance stands at 1,185; a break above could push prices toward 1,209.7.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1121.9-1209.7.

* Copper fell as rising inventories and subdued demand due to the holiday in China weighed.

* Copper stocks in LME-approved warehouses meanwhile increased by another 925 tons to 225,575 tons, the highest since March 2025.

* The cash LME copper contract was trading at a $100 a ton discount to the three-month forward contract, suggesting no pressing need for near-term metal.

Zinc

Zinc slipped 0.35% to settle at 324, weighed down by a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish undertones from the latest Federal Reserve minutes. Policymakers appeared divided, with some open to rate cuts if inflation eases, while others signaled rates may need to stay higher for longer. The broader risk-off tone was amplified by thin participation from China during the Lunar New Year break. Inventories added to the pressure. Stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 23.1% over the past week, and expectations are that inventories may continue to build seasonally during the holiday period as downstream demand softens. Chinese buyers had already completed pre-holiday restocking, leaving near-term consumption subdued. On the supply side, the picture is mixed. While some mines in China have temporarily suspended operations, refined zinc production in China hit a record 675,000 tonnes in December, up 13.1% year-on-year, pushing full-year output to 7.41 million tonnes. Globally, the zinc market showed a modest surplus over the first eleven months of 2025, though November recorded a small deficit. Technically, the market is undergoing long liquidation, with open interest down 14.24%. Immediate support is seen at 322.2 and 320.2, while resistance stands at 326.2; a move above this level could open the door to 328.2.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 320.2-328.2.

* Zinc dropped as the dollar strengthened on robust US economic data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.

* However downside seen limited amid persistent concerns of tight supply.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 23.1% from last Friday.

Aluminium

Aluminium eased 0.67% to settle at 306.2, pressured by concerns over slowing global growth after the IMF warned that weak domestic demand and a fragile global backdrop pose risks, particularly for China. Although China met its 5% growth target in 2025, persistent deflationary pressures and a deeper-than-expected property downturn continue to cloud the outlook. Sentiment was also weighed down by reports that the U.S. may scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminium products. However, losses were limited by tightening supply dynamics. South32 confirmed that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will move into care and maintenance, while Chinese smelters are operating close to the government’s capacity cap. At the same time, steep U.S. tariffs have curtailed imports and pushed up domestic prices. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half aluminium forecast to $3,150 per tonne, citing low global inventories and firm demand. In China, refined aluminium output hit a record 3.87 million tonnes in December, with full-year production above 45 million tonnes. Meanwhile, SHFE inventories rose 21.3% last week. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 7.51%. Support is seen at 304.5 and 302.7, while resistance stands at 308.8; a break above could lead to a test of 311.3.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 302.7-311.3.

* Aluminium dropped after IMF warned that weak domestic demand and a slowing global economy pose downside risks.

* Pressure also seen after a report that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to scale back some tariffs on steel and aluminum goods.

* Goldman Sachs lifted its first-half outlook for the light metal to $3,150 a ton from $2,575, attributing the hike to low global inventories.

Turmeric

Turmeric edged up 0.12% to settle at 15,466, supported by lower-than-normal arrivals and steady domestic as well as export demand. Farmers and stockists have already offloaded a significant portion of their inventories, which is keeping supplies tight ahead of the new crop. However, gains may remain capped as fresh arrivals in Erode are expected to rise sharply over the next two weeks. On the production front, the 2026 crop is taking shape with higher acreage but only moderate output growth. Total area is estimated at 3.02 lakh hectares, up about 4% year-on-year, while fresh production is projected at 11.41 lakh tonnes. Dried output is pegged at 90 lakh bags versus 82.5 lakh bags last season, though lower carry-forward stocks limit the net supply increase. Unseasonal rains in parts of Maharashtra, particularly Marathwada, caused waterlogging and disease issues, affecting yields in nearly 15% of the area. Even so, higher acreage may lift Maharashtra’s output to 54 lakh bags. Exports during April–November 2025 rose nearly 5% year-on-year, with November shipments posting strong monthly and annual gains, while imports declined sharply. In Nizamabad, prices climbed 0.84% to 15,604. Technically, the market shows fresh buying, with open interest up 0.99%. Support is seen at 15,244 and 15,022, while resistance stands at 15,656; a breakout could push prices toward 15,846.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15022-15846.

* Turmeric gains as arrivals remain below normal and good domestic and international demand.

* However upside seen limited as fresh turmeric arrivals in Erode are expected to increase sharply over the next 10-15 days.

* Turmeric exports during Apr - Nov 2025, jump by 4.88 percent at 127530.20 tonnes as compared to 121601.21 tonnes exported during Apr - Nov 2024.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15604 Rupees gained by 0.84 percent.

Jeera

Jeera slipped marginally by 0.09% to settle at 22,875 as fresh crop arrivals began trickling into key mandis. Supplies are expected to gather pace from March, which is weighing on sentiment. Comfortable stock levels and subdued export interest have also kept prices under pressure, even though arrivals at Unjha remain low and premium-quality cumin continues to command better rates. That said, the downside appears limited. Sowing in Gujarat is down 14.34% year-on-year at 4.08 lakh hectares, and total production for 2026 is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, sharply lower than last year’s 1.10 crore bags. Gujarat may produce 42–45 lakh bags, while Rajasthan is seen at 48–50 lakh bags. Aphid infestation risks in Rajasthan and slow sowing progress in Gujarat due to unprepared fields are additional concerns. Farmers are still holding around 20 lakh bags, but only a small portion is expected to reach the market, leaving sizeable carry-forward stocks. Globally, output in China, Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan is either lower or facing weather and geopolitical challenges. However, India’s exports during April–November 2025 fell 10.3% year-on-year, reflecting weak overseas demand despite a stronger November performance. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 1.1%. Support is seen at 22,660 and 22,450, while resistance stands at 23,080; a breakout could test 23,290.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 22450-23290.

* Jeera prices dropped as arrivals of the new crop have started in some markets.

* Arrivals are expected to pick up full pace from March onwards.

* Pressure also seen due to comfortable supplies and tepid export interest amid adequate existing stocks.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 22839.5 Rupees dropped by -0.08 percent.

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