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Copra & oils up; beverage commodities ease

* We assessed commodity price trends relevant to the FMCG sector, mapping the trajectory of key input costs across recent periods.

* Grain prices remained largely unchanged, though wheat showed early signs of inflation (+3% mom), while rice and maize held steady.

* Beverage/Confectionary inputs such as coffee, cocoa, and tea continued to soften, offering input cost relief for Nestlé, Tata Consumer, and HUL’s beverage portfolios.

* Edible oils turned inflationary, with palm oil up 12% yoy/4% qoq and copra prices soaring 29% qoq.

* Crude and derivatives remained stable yoy. However, early signs of mom inflation and geopolitical risks may drive renewed cost pressures on packaging and logistics in the coming quarters.

Agri Commodities – Grains steady, but wheat edges up

* Rice, maize, barley remained broadly stable qoq, supporting input cost predictability.

* Wheat prices rose ~3% mom in Jul’25, led by tighter domestic availability.

Beverage Inputs – Correction continues

* Coffee (Arabica/Robusta) extended its downtrend, helped by improving Brazilian crop outlook and normalizing global logistics.

* Cocoa prices fell another ~12% mom, continuing their decline post the 4QFY25 peak.

* Tea prices were down 7% yoy, reflecting improved domestic supplies and expectations of higher plucking yields.

Edible Oils – Reversing trend with upward bias

* Copra prices rose sharply by ~29% qoq, driven by seasonality and lower arrivals. Marico has flagged continued cost pressure and implemented price hikes in its coconut oil portfolio.

* Palm oil surged ~12% yoy and 4% qoq, with recent shifts in import parity adding to the pressure.

* Soybean, sunflower, and mustard oil prices saw sequential upticks, ending the deflationary cycle.

Crude and Derivatives – Volatility ahead

* Crude oil remained range-bound at Rs 60-65/litre, providing a supportive base for packaging and freight. That said, geopolitical tensions warrant caution.

* Crude-linked inputs (like HDPE, LLP) showed some uptick.

End-use snapshot: Stable grain and beverage input prices bode well for companies like Britannia, Nestlé, and Tata Consumer. However, the sharp sequential increase in copra poses a direct margin risk for Marico. Early signs of broad-based inflation in edible/palm oils call for close monitoring, while volatility in crude and its derivatives remains a key monitorable for packaging material and home & personal care segments.

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