Rupee to track subdued Asian peers, shuffle around on corporate flows
The Indian rupee is expected to open nearly flat on Friday, tracking muted moves in regional currencies, with traders expecting the currency to remain rangebound around the 90 handle heading into year-end. The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will likely open in the 89.70-89.75 range versus the U.S. dollar, after settling at 89.7850 on Wednesday.
Asia's worst-performing currency has consolidated in a 89.44-89.84 band this week after being shored up from record low levels by the central bank's intervention last week.
Traders reckon that while the overall bias for the rupee remains steady depreciation, it should hold above all-time lows at least in the near term.
Unless the underlying picture on merchant or portfolio flows shifts, the rise above 90 is unlikely to stick on for long, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.
In the near-term, corporate hedging and price-action signals from the non-deliverable forwards market remain key for the rupee, the trader added.
Both traders and analysts concur that a breakthrough in U.S.-India trade negotiations remains key to turning its fortunes around. In the absence of a trade agreement between New Delhi and Washington, weakness in foreign investment flows is likely to remain a drag on the rupee.
Foreign investors have net sold nearly $18 billion of local stocks so far in 2025, on track to be the worst yearly outflow on record. Indian equity benchmarks were poised to open nearly flat.
"The outlook for spot USD/INR maintains an upward trajectory provided it holds above the 89.00 mark; however, the 90.30 level continues to act as a formidable resistance for further gains," said Dilip Parmar, a forex research analyst at HDFC Securities.
Elsewhere, Asian currencies were flat to modestly higher, while the dollar index hovered little changed at 97.9.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 90.12; onshore one-month forward premium at 41 paisa
** Dollar index at 97.91
** Brent crude futures up 0.2% at $62.4 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.15%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $150mln worth of Indian shares on December 23
** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $90.1mln worth of Indian bonds on December 23
