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USD/INR

Market Commentary :

The Dollar index recovered from its Friday’s losses and moved higher above the 105.20 handle. The lack of major market moving data releases seems to be the reason for contracting volatility. The Indian Rupee followed the Asian FX pack and inched closer towards a fresh lifetime low. Suspected intervention by RBI capped the volatility in the pair.

On the Daily chart, the pair continued to hold above the short term moving averages (5,13 and 21) which remain aligned for an up move. Technically, the pair is expected to find resistance around the 83.60 handle followed by 83.80. The immediate support for the pair is placed near 83.30-83.20.

The daily stochastic oscillator suggests an increasing bullish momentum in the pair, while the 20 period z-score of the difference between the 8 and the 21 day moving averages, continues to remain neutral.

Notable strikes set for expiration today are 83.10.

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 9.9% probability that the pair will breach above 83.66 while there is a 5.1% chance that it will breach below 83.30

EUR/INR

Market Commentary:

EUR/USD hovers around the 1.07 handle, as traders assess the monetary policy outlook. The EcB is expected to start cutting the rates, from June. The EURINR was a bit muted and formed an inside candle pattern.

The pair is expected to face hurdle around the 90.00 mark, followed by the 90.30. The immediate support for the pair is placed near 89.50 the 13 and 21 day moving average cluster.

The daily stochastic oscillator is placed in the extremely overbought regime and the 20 Day Z-score of the difference between the 8 and 21 day moving average, is inching closer to the overbought zone.

Notable strikes set to expire today for EUR/USD lie at 1.0750, 1.0775, 1.0780.

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.2% chance that the pair will breach above 90.43 today while there is a 9.4% probability that it will breach below 9.4.

GBP/INR

Market Commentary:

Britain's construction industry showed strong expansion in the month of April, the fastest in 14 months, adding additional confidence that the economy is rebounding from a recession. The GBPINR was muted and ended the session with an inside candle.

Technically, the pair is expected to find support near the 104.50 handle (13,21 day moving average cluster), beyond which we might see the pair move lower towards the 104.20 zone. The immediate resistance is placed near the previous session high of 105.00 followed by 105.30

The daily stochastic indicator and the 20 period Z-score of the 8 and 21 day moving averages, are currently placed in the extremely overbought regime. A sell signal will only be generated after a bearish crossover by the stochastic oscillator and a break below the overbought bound.

Notable strikes set to expire today for GBP/USD lie at 1.2200, 1.2500.

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 10.5% probability that the pair will breach above 105.20, while there is a 9.1% probability that it will breach below 104.20.

JPY/INR

Market Commentary:

The Yen traders turned focus on the yield gap, which pushed the USDJPY pair higher above 155.00. Japanese Finance Minister in a press release, mentioned that the government will monitor the developments in the FX markets closely, and stand read to take any possible measure on FX. JPYINR has been moving lower ever since it tested a high of ~0.55.

The immediate support for the pair lies around 0.5380 handle, followed by 0.5350. The previous session high of 0.5494 is expected to act as a resistance.

The daily Stochastic oscillator and the 20 period Z-score of the difference of 8, and 21 period moving average is moving closer to the overbought zone.

Notable strikes set to expire today are at 153.75, 154.35, 154.44.

Bloomberg’s FX forecast model suggests there is a 8.5% probability that the pair will breach above 0.5443 tomorrow while there is a 10.3% probability that it will breach below 0.5386.

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