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Nifty :24480

Equity benchmark plunged significantly, driven primary by escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a sharp spike in global crude oil prices. Nifty settled the day at 24480, down 385 points. Broader market remained in negative with an A/D ratio of 1:4, wherein Mid and Smallcap lost 2% each. Sectorally, barring IT, all major indices ended in red dragged down by Metals, PSUs banks, Realty. Meanwhile, India Vix (which gauge the market sentiment) jumped 23% to 21, indicating rise in volatility

Technical Outlook:

* The index opened the day with a sharp gap down and witnessed supportive efforts near its 20-months EMA (24,363). As a result, daily price action formed a high wave candle carrying lower high-low structure, indicating corrective bias.

* In line with our view index rebounded from its key support of 24,300, being its previous swing low made in August 2025 as well as placement of 20-month EMA. Going ahead we expect volatility to remain preeminent on the backdrop of geopolitical tension and weak global macro cues. A decisive close below 24,300 would result into extension of corrective bias towards 23,900, coinciding with rising trendline which has been held since June 2022, signifies broader structure remains intact. Meanwhile, for a meaningful pullback to materialise, index need to fill Monday’s Gap area (25178-24989) and decisively close above 25200 mark.

* In the last four decades there have been six major geopolitical escalations. On each occasion it formed major bottom once anxiety around the event settled down. Investing in such panic reactions with long term mind set has been rewarding as index has double digit returns in subsequent three months. In the current scenario, post the kneejerk reaction, we believe market would stabilise. Hence, we advise dips should be capitalised to build quality portfolios from medium to long term perspective

* On the larger degree time frame, index has been respecting 20 months EMA which has been held post Covid-lows. The current reading is placed around 24300 that corroborates with August swing low of 24338, highlighting strong support going ahead.

* In tandem with the benchmark move, Nifty midcap, smallcap indices once again retested their key support zone. We expect, index to undergo base formation while sailing through global volatility and set the stage for next leg of up move head

Key Monitorable:

* Brent crude would be the key monitorable going forward amidst renewed geopolitical tension, that pulled it around falling resistance trendline placed at $83 range. A decisive close above $83 on weekly closing basis would fuel the momentum for next leg of up move that can add pressure on emerging markets like India

* USDINR has clocked a fresh all-time high $92.30. Further rise in USDINR bodes negative for domestic market

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 20-month EMA

* Levels- Buy around 80% retracement of Wednesday upmove(24440- 24700)

Nifty Bank :58755

Nifty Bank closed the day on negative note to settle at 58755 down 1.7%. Nifty PSU Bank Index underperformed was down 3.2%

Technical Outlook:

* Index began the day with gap-down opening and witnessed supportive efforts emerging from 80% retracement of February up move around 58600 levels. Consequently, daily price action formed a small bull candle, carrying lower-high-low pattern, indicating corrective bias.

* Going ahead sustaining above the key support threshold of 58,400 ahead of ongoing geopolitical tension would keep pullback options open towards 60000 being 50% retracement of recent decline (61678-58394).Failure to do so will lead to extended correction wherein key support is placed at 57,800 being its former resistance would be turned as a support as per change of polarity principal.

* We believe, volatility is likely to remain elevated on the backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty. Therefore, any corrective declines from current levels should be viewed as buying opportunities as strong demand zone is identified near 57,800, being 50% retracement of the rally recorded from Aug 2025 to Feb 2026 (53,606-61,674).

* The PSU Bank index witnessed profit booking more than the benchmark down 3.2%, also closing below 20-day EMA its short-term moving average. Going ahead we expect Index to correct towards 9100 levels, being 50% retracement of February upmove and January 2026 breakout area .

Intraday Rational:

* Trend- Supportive efforts from 80% retracement of February up move around 58600 levels

* Levels- Buy around 61.8% retracement of Wednesday upmove(58826-59395)

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