Diet Report - Oil & Gas - LNG: Steering through the Hormuz bottleneck by Elara Capital
Per CY25 data, ~69% of India’s LNG imports (17.5mn tonnes/ 63mmscmd) originate from Qatar, UAE and Oman, with shipments either transiting through or in proximity to the Strait of Hormuz. After adjusting for GAIL’s US LNG swap optimization, the effective system exposure moderates to ~66%, but the concentration risk is material. The earnings transmission mechanism in a disruption scenario would likely move sequentially from terminal utilization to transmission throughput, and ultimately to downstream industrial margin
At terminal level, exposure concentrated at Petronet LNG’s (PNLG IN) Dahej terminal: The Dahej terminal handles the largest LNG import volume, with significant 76% exposure to the Strait of Hormuz. Kochi and Chhara terminals are fully dependent on the Middle East but operate on smaller bases. Mundra (88%), Dhamra (65%) and Ennore (62%) terminals have elevated exposure, while Hazira (25%) and Dabhol (0%) benefit from US/Russia/Australia sourcing.
PLNG and Gujarat State Petronet (GUJS IN) – Maximum vulnerability to supply shocks: PLNG’s (77% exposure) heavy regional skew directly impacts regasification revenue. The company has already issued force majeure notices to GAIL, IOCL, and BPCL on March 3, 2026, due to Hormuz-linked shipping disruptions affecting cargo loadings at Ras Laffan Qatar, potentially impacting regas throughput at Dahej/Kochi.. Similarly, GUJS faces significant risk (62% of its CY25 transmission volume is via the Strait of Hormuz).
Gujarat Gas (GUJGA IN) – Acute margin and volume risk: GUJGA faces a dual challenge on margin and volume – LNG comprises 73% of its supply mix, primarily serving the pricesensitive Morbi industrial cluster. With 48% dependency on the Strait, rising spot LNG prices could severely erode its gas competitiveness against alternate fuels such as propane. Consequently, GUJGA has issued force majeure notices to industrial customers and will curtail supply effective March 6, 2026, citing constrained R-LNG availability amid Middle East-related disruptions. The company has communicated to exchanges that it may reduce Daily Contracted Quantities (DCQ) to industrial customers.
GAIL – Diversified global LNG sourcing as risk mitigant: GAIL’s marketing segment (16% dependency) is the most resilient in the gas sector, supported by diversified contracts from the US, Russia, and Australia. While raw CY25 data suggests that the transmission segment is 35% physically dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, this seems overstated due to GAIL's massive ~1.74mn tonne US LNG volume swap with the Middle East. So, actual dependency of GAIL’s transmission segment on the Strait of Hormuz is 30%.
Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN) and Indraprastha Gas (IGL IN) – Defensive sector leaders: MAHGL (22%) and IGL (25%) maintain the lowest dependency on the Strait of Hormuz. Their resilience is driven by a higher share of priority sector (CNG and households), which primarily uses domestic APM/NWG gas.
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