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Nifty

On the daily timeframe, the current move appears to be a follow-through after an exhaustion gap, supported by a panic flush candle formation. With RSI rebounding from oversold levels and ADX gradually declining from elevated levels, this indicates the possibility of a short-term relief rally within the broader downtrend. However, the overall market structure remains weak, continuing to form a clear lower high–lower low pattern, which confirms a sustained downtrend. While daily indicators are stretched and may trigger a temporary bounce from current levels, a meaningful and durable reversal would require either a strong bullish signal on the weekly chart or a decisive gap reclaim above the 23850 level. On the downside, a breakdown below 22800 could lead to fresh unwinding pressure, potentially pushing the index towards the 22500–22260 zone. From a macro perspective, elevated USD/INR levels, firm crude prices above $90 per barrel, persistent FII outflows, and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to act as key overhangs, limiting upside potential. Given this backdrop, the preferred strategy remains to sell on rise as long as the index trades within the broad range of 23500 to 22500. Traders should avoid aggressive long positions and instead focus on disciplined risk management along with appropriate hedging strategies.

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