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Gold

Gold settled 0.34% higher at Rs1,52,981, supported by short covering as investors reassessed positions following the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years. The dollar retreated from a seven-week high after policymakers raised rates and signaled further tightening, while Fed officials continued to highlight elevated inflation risks. Higher interest rates generally reduce gold’s appeal by increasing the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets, keeping monetary policy expectations a key driver for bullion. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise rates to a 31-year high. Meanwhile, easing concerns over oil supply disruptions and expectations of progress toward an end to the Iran conflict weighed on crude prices, potentially reducing inflationary pressure and limiting safe-haven demand. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2026 fair-value forecast at $4,900/oz but highlighted two-way and potentially more volatile price movements, with continued central-bank demand providing support. A resumption of ETF inflows and elevated call-option positioning could amplify rallies through dealer hedging, while renewed expectations of Fed rate hikes could trigger sharper pullbacks. COMEX gold speculators reduced net longs by 1,263 contracts to 139,548 for the week to September 8, indicating some moderation in bullish positioning. Physical demand in India remained subdued amid volatile prices, with dealers offering discounts of up to $75/oz, compared with $54 previously, while Chinese bullion traded at an $8/oz premium. London vault holdings rose 0.74% month-on-month to 9,534 tonnes at end-July, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Technically, the market remains under short covering, with open interest declining 4.31% to 8,438 while prices gained Rs511. Gold has support at Rs1,51,165, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,49,345. Resistance is placed at Rs1,54,125, above which prices may test Rs1,55,265.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 149345-155265.

* Gold climbed as investors reassessed their positions following the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years.

* Fed raised the benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range.

* Kevin Warsh joining a unanimous decision that effectively acknowledges the Trump administration's inability so far to control inflation.

Silver

Silver settled 1.46% higher at Rs2,38,205, supported by short covering as investors reassessed positions following the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years. The dollar retreated from a seven-week high after US policymakers raised rates and signalled further hikes, although higher interest rates generally weigh on precious metals by increasing the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, while the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise rates to a 31-year high. Meanwhile, easing concerns over oil supply disruptions and hopes of progress toward an end to the Iran conflict reduced some safe-haven support. US weekly unemployment claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000, the lowest since July’s 189,000, while housing starts declined 2.6% month-on-month to 1.275 million units in August, marking the second consecutive decline and the lowest level since October 2025. Building permits also fell 2.7% to 1.394 million, below market expectations of 1.41 million, reflecting pressure from higher mortgage rates and affordability constraints. London vault holdings increased 0.5% month-on-month to 28,213 tonnes at end-July, valued at $52.7 billion. The global silver market is projected to remain in structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year, with the deficit expected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication may fall 3% to a four-year low, partly offset by an expected 18% rise in coin and bar demand. Global supply is projected to decline 2%, while 762 million ounces have reportedly been drawn from stocks since 2021, highlighting persistent tightness. Technically, silver remains under short covering, with open interest declining 1.58% to 12,309 while prices gained Rs3,419. Silver has support at Rs2,32,520, and a break below this level could expose Rs2,26,830. Resistance is placed at Rs2,41,600, and a sustained move above it could open the way toward Rs2,44,990.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 226830-244990.

* Silver climbed as investors reassessed their positions following the US Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years.

* Prices found some support as oil prices retreated amid easing concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.

* The number of people claiming unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to 196,000 in the second week of September, the least since the 60-year low of 189,000 from July.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.62% lower at Rs9,758, reflecting easing concerns over supply disruptions after Saudi Arabia indicated it could restore around half of the damaged East-West pipeline capacity within days and return to full operations within six weeks. Saudi Aramco is working to bypass damaged sections and resume partial flows, while Riyadh is offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman, providing an alternative export route following disruptions at the Yanbu terminal. Libya’s National Oil Corporation also said production returned to normal after temporary shutdowns at three oilfields, reducing immediate supply concerns. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated as the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical supply route, while Russia-Ukraine tensions are disrupting refined-product markets through attacks on Russian refineries. US crude inventories declined by 640,000 barrels to 423.4 million barrels in the week ended September 11, compared with expectations for a 1.6 million-barrel draw, while Cushing inventories fell 342,000 barrels. Refinery crude runs declined by 256,000 barrels per day, with utilization falling one percentage point to 96.8%. Gasoline inventories increased 794,000 barrels to 207.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks rose 1.6 million barrels to 107.9 million barrels. Net US crude imports declined by 1.18 million barrels per day. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision, while raising its 2027 demand growth projection. The International Energy Agency warned that global supply and demand could fall further than previously expected, with shrinking inventories and stretched refining capacity increasing market-tightening risks if Middle East disruptions persist. Technically, crude oil is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising sharply by 24.4% to 15,818 while prices declined Rs61. Support is placed at Rs9,556, and a break below this level could expose Rs9,353, while resistance is seen at Rs9,900; a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs10,041.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9353-10041.

* Crude oil fell reflecting easing concerns over supply disruptions after Saudi Arabia indicated it could restore half of damaged capacity

* Saudi aims to restore half of key cross-country oil pipeline capacity within days

* Libya's NOC said oil production has returned to normal after a brief decline caused by shutdowns at three oilfields

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 0.47% higher at Rs279.2, supported by a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts indicating stronger demand over the coming two weeks. The US Energy Information Administration reported that energy firms added 44 billion cubic feet of gas to storage for the week ended September 11, below market expectations of a 49 bcf build and significantly lower than the 87 bcf increase recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average build of 74 bcf. Despite the supportive storage data, US Lower 48 gas production remained strong, averaging 113.1 bcfd in September compared with a monthly record of 112.2 bcfd in August. Record production and mild weather have kept inventories above the five-year average since March. LSEG expects average Lower 48 demand, including exports, to decline from 109.6 bcfd this week to 106.6 bcfd next week. Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants increased to 18.2 bcfd in September from 17.2 bcfd in August, although maintenance at Cameron LNG and upcoming work at Cove Point are temporarily limiting feedgas flows. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise from a record 107.6 bcfd in 2025 to 111.2 bcfd in 2026 and 116.0 bcfd in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.0 bcfd in 2026 and 94.8 bcfd in 2027. US LNG exports are forecast to increase from 15.1 bcfd in 2025 to 17.4 bcfd in 2026 and 18.6 bcfd in 2027, supporting longer-term demand. Technically, natural gas is witnessing short covering, with open interest declining 5.25% to 28,759 while prices gained Rs1.3. Support is placed at Rs275.4, and a break below this level could lead to a test of Rs271.5, while resistance is seen at Rs283.2; a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs287.1.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 271.5-287.1.

* Natural gas edged up on a smaller-than-expected storage build and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks.

* EIA says utilities add 44 bcf of gas to storage in week ended September 11

* Daily LNG feedgas falls toward 17.5 bcfd, lowest in three weeks on Cameron maintenance

Copper

Copper settled 1.51% higher at Rs1,395.05 as improving physical demand in China outweighed pressure from the US Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point interest rate hike. Chinese buyers increased restocking after the recent price correction, with domestic copper premiums rising to 645 yuan per tonne, the highest since December 2023, while the Yangshan premium climbed to $118 per tonne, its highest level in nearly four years, indicating firmer physical market conditions. The stronger US dollar following the Fed decision remained a broader headwind for industrial metals, while policymakers projected one more rate increase this year and steady rates in 2027 alongside higher near-term inflation forecasts. Supply concerns also supported copper, with Chilean production falling 9.4% year-on-year in July due to severe weather and maintenance. Codelco output declined 5% to 112,800 tonnes, while Escondida production slumped 22.1% to 89,400 tonnes; Collahuasi output increased 12.3% to 38,400 tonnes. Chilean copper production is expected to decline around 2.5% in 2026 before recovering next year. Peru’s copper output increased 3.7% year-on-year to 236,515 tonnes in July, while January-July production rose 2.2% to 1.6 million tonnes. China’s unwrought copper and product imports declined 11.5% year-on-year to 425,000 tonnes in July, with January-July imports down 6.2% to 2.92 million tonnes. The global refined copper market recorded a 60,000-tonne deficit in June compared with a 15,000-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half surplus widened to 131,000 tonnes from 114,000 tonnes a year earlier. World refined copper output reached 2.37 million tonnes in June against consumption of 2.43 million tonnes. Technically, copper remains under short covering, with open interest declining 0.63% to 8,880 while prices gained Rs20.7. Support is placed at Rs1,381.3, and a break below this level could expose Rs1,367.3, while resistance is seen at Rs1,403.4; a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs1,411.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1367.3-1411.5.

* Copper rose as signs of improving physical demand in China outweighed pressure from the Fed’s interest rate hike.

* Copper output at Chilean state miner Codelco fell 5% from a year earlier in July to 112,800 metric tons

* Copper output in Peru, rose 3.7% year-over-year in July to 236,515 metric tons

Zinc

Zinc settled 1.8% higher at Rs427.65 after reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc’s Onsan smelter raised concerns over near-term supply, while tight inventories outside China provided additional support. The LME cash zinc contract premium over the three-month contract remained elevated at $124 per tonne, reflecting restricted physical availability. Production disruptions at several mines, including in China, have raised concerns over concentrate availability, while Middle East tensions have constrained Iranian ore shipments. Major mines such as Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska are also experiencing lower output as operations work through lower-grade ore sections. Sharply lower smelter treatment charges further indicate tight concentrate availability. However, upside remained limited by a stronger US dollar, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, and concerns over increasing Chinese exports to LME warehouses. Higher zinc prices have also weakened demand and encouraged buyers in China to remain cautious. On the supply side, Nexa reported second-quarter zinc production of 79.3 thousand tonnes, up 8% year-on-year, supported by higher ore grades, while Minmetals Resources produced 105,800 tonnes and retained its full-year guidance of 215,000–235,000 tonnes. Glencore reported first-half own-sourced zinc production of 365,600 tonnes, down 21% year-on-year, but maintained its 2026 guidance of 700,000–740,000 tonnes. Boliden’s zinc concentrate production declined 16.8% quarter-on-quarter to 74,200 tonnes, while MMG produced 106,000 tonnes during the first half. The global refined zinc market moved into a 31,400-tonne deficit in June from a 22,400-tonne surplus in May, although the first-half market remained in a 120,000-tonne surplus compared with 74,000 tonnes during the same period last year. Technically, zinc is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.79% to 2,246 while prices gained Rs7.55. Support is placed at Rs421.4, and a break below this level could expose Rs415, while resistance is seen at Rs431.3; a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs434.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 415-434.8.

* Zinc gains after reports of an industrial accident at Korea Zinc's Onsan smelter raised concerns about supply.

* Prices also gained supported by tight inventories outside China, which keep the premium of the LME cash contract over the three-month contract at $124 per ton.

* Major zinc mines, including Antamina in Peru and Red Dog in Alaska, have seen output decline

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.37% higher at Rs352.15, supported by tight physical supply conditions as the US-Iran conflict disrupted aluminium production and exports from the Gulf region. GCC aluminium production fell 44% year-on-year in July, with the region previously accounting for around 10% of global aluminium output. LME inventories remained close to a 36-year low, while SHFE stocks continued to decline, highlighting constrained availability. Aluminium Bahrain was operating at an annualised production rate of 1.3 million tonnes, around 19% below pre-war capacity, while Alba had shut production lines 1, 2 and 3 following disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz. However, supply pressures could ease as several smelters restart curtailed capacity and expansion projects progress. China’s rising exports could also provide additional supply, with first-eight-month exports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products reaching 4.67 million tonnes, up 16.7% year-on-year. August exports stood at 626,000 tonnes, down from 643,000 tonnes in July. Japanese aluminium inventories at three major ports declined 8.8% month-on-month to 201,000 tonnes at end-July. Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes following operational disruptions at its Pinjarra refinery. Global primary aluminium output declined 1.7% year-on-year to 6.16 million tonnes in July. In contrast, China’s aluminium production reached a record 3.98 million tonnes in August, up 4.7% year-on-year, while January-August output increased 3.9% to 31.12 million tonnes. Strong margins encouraged Chinese smelters to maximise production despite the national capacity ceiling. Technically, aluminium remains under short covering, with open interest declining 1.78% to 3,263 while prices gained Rs1.3. Support is placed at Rs350.2, and a break below this level could expose Rs348.1, while resistance is seen at Rs353.9; a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs355.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 348.1-355.5.

* Aluminium prices gained amid tight supply conditions.

* The US-Iran war has disrupted aluminum supply from the region, with GCC production falling 44% year-on-year in July.

* LME inventories remained close to a 36-year low, while SHFE stockpiles continued to fall, pointing to limited availability.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 2.16% lower at Rs20,262 as revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka eased concerns over dry weather and improved the crop outlook. Improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are also ensuring better water availability during the vegetative phase, reducing immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing has been completed in North Karnataka following rainfall, with crop conditions showing improvement. However, downside remains limited by structurally tight supplies, lower-than-expected sowing expansion and concerns over the potential impact of El Nino on the newly sown crop. Carry-forward stocks have declined significantly over the past three to four years, with industry estimates placing current stocks near 15 lakh bags compared with more than 20 lakh bags last season. Continued dry conditions during early crop development could still affect yields and tighten availability further. European Union Maximum Residue Limit regulations have led to rejection of non-IPM compliant lots, while growing demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric is supporting compliant stocks. Farmers have increased selling during the peak harvest period, adding near-term pressure, while stockists remain cautious amid the improving weather outlook. India’s turmeric exports declined 10% year-on-year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes, although cumulative April-July exports increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes from 63,020 tonnes. Exports to Turkey surged 431% to 3,007 tonnes, Sri Lanka rose 644% to 156 tonnes and Nigeria increased 983% to 69 tonnes, supporting overall export growth. In Nizamabad, spot turmeric ended at Rs20,155.1, down 0.38%. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 0.55% to 36,310 while prices declined Rs448. Support is placed at Rs19,828, and a break below this level could lead to a test of Rs19,394, while resistance is seen at Rs20,848; a sustained move above this level could open the way toward Rs21,434.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 19394-21434.

* Turmeric dropped as revival of monsoon activity eased dry-weather fears.

* Filling up of key reservoirs ensured reliable water supply for the vegetative phase, dampening crop failure speculation.

* Tighter European Union regulations on Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) led to rejections of non-IPM compliant lots, discounting commercial-grade turmeric prices.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 20155.1 Rupees dropped by -0.38 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.85% higher at Rs21,870 amid tightening availability of premium-quality bold seeds, as export-grade high-purity supplies declined faster than expected despite stable overall physical crop availability. Daily arrivals at major markets such as Unjha in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started tapering significantly, while blight disease in key Gujarat pockets has affected both crop quality and harvestable volumes. However, upside remains limited as farmers are actively liquidating stocks to generate cash flow ahead of the upcoming season, while favourable weather allowed harvesting and drying to progress faster. NCDEX warehouse stocks have also increased steadily, reducing urgency among traders for spot procurement. Large industrial spice processors remain cautious and are following hand-to-mouth buying strategies, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and demand from traditional buyers. European and North American buyers have returned selectively, focusing on residue-compliant and high-specification lots. Improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria are also limiting Indian export premiums. Domestic processors and stockists have reduced aggressive forward coverage. India’s cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags this season compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production estimated at 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48–50 lakh bags. China’s production estimate has declined to 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are estimated at 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes respectively. India’s jeera exports declined 32% year-on-year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while April-July exports fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Singapore exports surged 889% to 2,842 tonnes, but China exports declined 88% to 710 tonnes, limiting overall export growth. In Unjha, spot prices ended at Rs21,481.45, up 0.23%. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 2.11% to 7,698 while prices gained Rs185. Support is placed at Rs21,690, and a break below this level could expose Rs21,500, while resistance is seen at Rs21,980; a sustained move above this level could lead prices toward Rs22,080.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 21500-22080.

* Jeera gained amid a rapid tightening in the supply of premium-quality bold seeds.

* While total physical crop availability is stable, the export-grade high-purity bold seed supply is shrinking much faster than anticipated.

* Daily arrivals across major trading spots like Unjha (Gujarat) and Rajasthan have begun to taper off significantly.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 21481.45 Rupees gained by 0.23 percent.

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