MCX Natural gas September is expected to slip towards Rs 272 level as long as it trades under Rs 286 level - ICICI Direct
Bullion Outlook
• Spot gold is expected to hold its gains and move higher towards $4400 as long as it stays above $4260 per ounce. A softer dollar and easing global treasury yields would provide support to prices. Further, correction in crude oil prices on growing hopes of easing Middle East tension would also ease inflation concerns and support bullion prices to regain its strength. Further, strong ETF inflows and central bank buying would strengthen bullish bets. Meanwhile, growing bets of 25 bps rate hike from BOJ would weigh on prices. Further, investors are also closely monitoring commentary from the Bank of Japan to get further clarity on future interest rate path.
• MCX Gold October is expected to rise towards Rs 154,500 as long as it stays above Rs 150,000 level. A move above Rs 154,500 it would rise towards Rs 156,500.
• MCX Silver December is expected to rise towards Rs 242,000-Rs 244,000 levels as long as it trades above Rs235,000.
Base Metal Outlook
• Copper prices are expected to trade firm due to tightening global supply and robust demand from China. Chile's copper production is projected to remain depressed for the rest of the year, dashing hopes that a secondhalf recovery might offset earlier losses. A projected 7% drop in annual output will further constrain global supply. Meanwhile, a softer US dollar and growing expectations of strong seasonal demand from China provide additional support. Highlighting this trend, the Yangshan copper premium a key indicator of China's physical import demand for refined copper recently hit a nearly four-year high of $118 per ton, signaling robust market appetite
• MCX Copper September is expected to rise towards Rs 1400- Rs 1405 level as long as it hods above Rs 1380. Only a move above Rs 1405 level, it will turn bullish towards Rs 1420.
• MCX Aluminum September is expected to hold support above Rs 348 level and rise towards Rs 355. MCX Zinc September is likely to hold above Rs 420 and rise towards Rs 432 levels.
Energy Outlook
• Crude oil prices are expected to trade lower amid growing optimism over improved supply from Saudi Arabia. Risk premiums are also anticipated to ease, bringing a correction in oil prices due to growing bets of renewed diplomatic efforts to end conflicts and restore energy flows. Specifically, Saudi Arabia is targeting the recovery of around half the capacity of its East-West pipeline within days, with a return to full operations expected within six weeks. To support these timelines, it has stepped up efforts to secure its crude transport with assistance from the US military. Meanwhile, market focus remains on the outcome of next week’s meeting between US President Donald Trump and Gulf leaders.
• NYMEX crude oil is expected to slip towards $99-$100 per barrel zone as long as it stays under $106 mark. MCX Crude oil October is expected to slip towards Rs 9000 as long as it trades under Rs 9600 level.
• MCX Natural gas September is expected to slip towards Rs 272 level as long as it trades under Rs 286 level.
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