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Gold

Gold settled 1.26% higher at Rs. 151,499, gaining Rs. 1,889, supported by cooling crude oil prices and a weaker US dollar as markets assessed the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased after US President Donald Trump indicated that the United States would not attack Iran before next month's midterm elections, amid ongoing efforts to end the conflict that has disrupted global energy markets. However, inflation concerns remain elevated, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem suggesting that further interest rate increases may be necessary to bring inflation back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing in a 19% probability of a rate hike in October and an 84% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by December. Higher interest rates could limit gold's upside by strengthening the dollar and reducing the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Physical demand in India remained sluggish following the price rebound, although domestic discounts narrowed to $6 per ounce from $14 last week ahead of the upcoming Dussehra and Diwali festivals. In China, gold traded at a $10 premium to the global benchmark following the reopening of markets after the Golden Week holiday. Meanwhile, London vaults held 9,534 tonnes of gold at the end of July 2026, up 0.74% month on month, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at $5,400 per ounce, highlighting continued central bank diversification as a key structural driver, while warning that additional rate hikes could trigger a correction towards $4,070 before a potential recovery to $4,200 by end-2026. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 2.71% to 16,126 contracts alongside rising prices. Gold is currently finding support at Rs. 150,870, followed by Rs. 150,240, while resistance is placed at Rs. 151,915 and Rs. 152,330. A sustained move above Rs. 151,915 could extend the recovery towards Rs. 152,330, whereas a break below Rs. 150,870 may expose the next support at Rs. 150,240.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150240-152330.

* Gold advanced on a combination of cooling oil prices and a softer US dollar.

* Fed’s Musalem said the US central bank will need to hike rates again to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

* Traders are pricing in a 19% chance of a rate hike in October and an 84% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by December.

Silver

Silver settled 2.04% higher at Rs. 225,755, gaining Rs. 4,522, supported by declining oil prices and stabilising bond yields, which eased immediate concerns over inflation and monetary policy tightening. The US 10-year Treasury yield declined to 5.22% following strong demand at a 30-year debt auction. Geopolitical concerns also moderated after US President Donald Trump indicated that Washington would not attack Iran before next month's midterm elections, while diplomatic efforts continued. However, Federal Reserve officials maintained a hawkish stance, indicating that further rate increases may be necessary to control inflation. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of an October rate hike declined to 18.3%, while markets increasingly favoured a pause, although December tightening remained a possibility. Meanwhile, delegates at the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering forecast silver prices reaching $97 per ounce over the next 12 months. Perth Mint silver sales increased 81.3% month on month to 605,408 ounces in September, their highest level since March. London vault holdings reached 28,213 tonnes at the end of July 2026, up 0.5% month on month and valued at $52.7 billion. Fundamentally, the silver market is expected to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the shortfall projected to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. However, total demand is forecast to decline 2%, while industrial fabrication may fall 3% to a four-year low amid weaker economic growth prospects. In contrast, coin and bar demand is expected to increase 18%, partially offsetting industrial weakness. Global supply is projected to decline 2%, providing underlying price support. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 8.92% to 16,859 contracts alongside rising prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 224,070, followed by Rs. 222,385, while resistance stands at Rs. 227,010 and Rs. 228,265. A sustained move above Rs. 227,010 could extend the recovery towards Rs. 228,265, whereas a break below Rs. 224,070 may trigger further weakness towards Rs. 222,385.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 222385-228265.

* Silver gained as oil prices fell and bond yields steadied, helping ease concerns around inflation and interest rates.

* The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 5.22 percent after a 30-year debt auction met with solid demand.

* Fed’s Waller indicated that further interest rate increases are likely in the coming months.

Crude oil

Crude oil settled 0.19% higher at Rs. 8,881, gaining Rs. 17, as Hurricane Isaias disrupted US Gulf of Mexico production, partially offsetting easing geopolitical concerns surrounding the Middle East. US offshore producers shut significant output, with approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, or 62.9% of current production, reported offline, according to the US Marine Minerals Administration. However, gains remained limited after President Donald Trump indicated that Washington would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, citing productive discussions to end the six-month conflict. Despite these developments, risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain significant, as the route historically handled approximately 20% of global oil and fuel shipments before the war. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency supported accelerating the release of approximately 100 million barrels of previously pledged emergency oil stocks, with priority given to diesel supplies. US crude inventories declined by 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million barrels in the week ended October 2, against expectations for an increase of 1.7 million barrels. Refinery utilisation rose to 92.7%, while gasoline inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels to 204.7 million barrels. OPEC+ maintained its November production targets unchanged, while OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, marking its fifth consecutive downward revision. Conversely, the IEA warned that prolonged Middle East disruptions could tighten global supply further into 2027, with declining inventory buffers and strained refining capacity increasing market risks. Guyana's oil production also declined to 832,000 barrels per day in August from 886,000 barrels per day in July, adding to supply uncertainty. Technically, crude oil is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 0.75% to 9,688 contracts while prices increased by Rs. 17. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 8,756, followed by Rs. 8,630, while resistance stands at Rs. 8,964 and Rs. 9,046. A sustained move above Rs. 8,964 could extend the recovery towards Rs. 9,046, whereas a break below Rs. 8,756 may expose the next support at Rs. 8,630.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 8630-9046.

* Crude oil gained as Hurricane Isaias churned toward the northern Gulf of Mexico and ‌oil companies shut more than 70% of crude production.

* President Trump said US would not attack Iran before midterm elections, amid productive talks to end their war.

* Threats to shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, , have increased in October.

Natural gas

Natural gas settled 2.65% higher at Rs. 313.9, gaining Rs. 8.1, supported by declining US production following recent pipeline disruptions and concerns that Hurricane Isaias could cause further supply interruptions along the Gulf Coast. According to LSEG, average natural gas output across the Lower 48 states declined from record levels of 113.3 billion cubic feet per day in August and September to 111.2 billion cubic feet per day in October. Production could fall further to approximately 108.5 billion cubic feet per day due to offshore disruptions. However, the upside remains limited by expectations of ample winter supplies. The Natural Gas Supply Association projected US dry gas production to average 112.5 billion cubic feet per day this winter, approximately 2.5 billion cubic feet above last year's level. Meanwhile, average gas demand, including exports, is expected to decline from 106.6 billion cubic feet per day this week to 104.0 billion cubic feet per day next week. Flows to major US liquefied natural gas export facilities averaged 16.9 billion cubic feet per day in October, down from 17.9 billion cubic feet per day in September. According to the latest storage data, US natural gas inventories increased by 85 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 2, exceeding the preliminary estimate of 79 billion cubic feet. Total inventories reached 3.500 trillion cubic feet, remaining 3.6% below year-ago levels. The US Energy Information Administration projected dry gas production to rise to 112.2 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 116.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is forecast to reach 92.4 billion and 93.8 billion cubic feet per day, respectively. Liquefied natural gas exports are also expected to increase to 17.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027, providing demand support. Technically, natural gas is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 2.56% to 29,501 contracts alongside rising prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 305.9, followed by Rs. 297.8, while resistance stands at Rs. 318.5 and Rs. 323. A sustained move above Rs. 318.5 could extend the recovery towards Rs. 323, whereas a break below Rs. 305.9 may expose the next support at Rs. 297.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 297.8-323.

* Natural gas gained on a drop in output and worries that a Gulf of Mexico storm could cause further supply disruptions.

* US EIA said energy firms added 85 bcf of gas to storage during the week ended October 2.

* US natural gas market is expected to see supply growth outpace demand this winter despite rising LNG exports – NSGA

Copper

Copper settled 1.4% higher at Rs. 1,427.15, gaining Rs. 19.7, supported by concerns over mine supply disruptions, improving demand indicators from China, and tightening inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses. China's Yangshan copper premium climbed to $135 per ton, its highest level in four years, indicating stronger demand for imported metal following the holiday period. However, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories increased by approximately 20,000 tons from the end of September to 58,744 tons, providing a counterpoint to the bullish outlook. Meanwhile, LME copper inventories declined to a six-week low of 233,025 tons following substantial daily outflows, mainly from Taiwan and Hong Kong. COMEX inventories remained elevated at a record 711,609 tons amid continued metal transfers linked to uncertainty over potential US import tariffs. Supply concerns intensified as the union strike at Antofagasta's Centinela copper mine in Chile threatened to affect production from November. Chilean copper output, meanwhile, declined 12.8% year on year in August due to adverse weather conditions and lower ore grades. According to the International Copper Study Group, the global refined copper market recorded a deficit of 51,000 metric tons in July, compared with a deficit of 74,000 tons in June. However, the cumulative market balance for the first seven months showed a surplus of 32,000 tons, significantly lower than the 157,000-ton surplus recorded a year earlier. Global refined copper production reached 2.41 million tons in July, against consumption of 2.46 million tons. On the demand side, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined to 382,000 tons in August from 425,000 tons in July, while cumulative imports during January to August fell 6.7% year on year to 3.30 million tons. Technically, copper is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 3.66% to 8,346 contracts alongside rising prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 1,416.5, followed by Rs. 1,405.8, while resistance stands at Rs. 1,433.4 and Rs. 1,439.6. A sustained move above Rs. 1,433.4 could extend the rally towards Rs. 1,439.6, whereas a break below Rs. 1,416.5 may expose the next support at Rs. 1,405.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1405.8-1439.6.

* Copper gained supported by concerns over mine supply disruptions, signs of active demand in China and tight visible inventories.

* LME Copper stocks dropped to a six-week low of 233,025 tons after daily outflows of 4,700 tons

* The Yangshan copper premium ended the week at $135 a ton, its four-year high.

Zinc

Zinc settled 2.01% higher at Rs. 422.05, gaining Rs. 8.3, supported by persistent supply tightness amid declining Western smelting capacity, elevated energy costs, and constrained raw material availability. Western refined zinc production declined 3.4% year on year during the first half of 2026, while Nyrstar's strategic review of its loss-making Budel smelter in the Netherlands heightened concerns over potential production cuts. However, further gains remained limited by a strengthening US dollar, which approached an 18-month high amid rising oil prices and expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases. On the supply side, China's refined zinc production declined 1.9% month on month and 6.4% year on year in September 2026, although output exceeded expectations as some major smelters avoided anticipated production reductions. Earlier, Chinese zinc production fell 1.8% year on year to 639,000 metric tons in August, marking its weakest annual performance since May 2025. Meanwhile, Mitsui Kinzoku plans to produce 117,700 metric tons of refined zinc during the second half of fiscal 2026, representing a 32% increase year on year and potentially providing additional supply. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories increased 1.8% from the September 30 report, indicating some improvement in available stocks. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market recorded a surplus of 13,000 metric tons in July, as production increased 0.3% to 1.190 million metric tons, exceeding demand of 1.177 million metric tons, which rose 0.56%. However, global zinc mine production declined 8% year on year to approximately 995,000 metric tons, marking the fifth consecutive monthly contraction and the steepest decline since May 2024. Technically, zinc is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 6.61% to 1,993 contracts alongside rising prices. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 418.2, followed by Rs. 414.4, while resistance stands at Rs. 424.1 and Rs. 426.2. A sustained move above Rs. 424.1 could extend the recovery towards Rs. 426.2, whereas a break below Rs. 418.2 may expose the next support at Rs. 414.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 414.4-426.2.

* Zinc prices rallied amid persistent supply tightness as Western smelter capacity shrinks.

* Western refined zinc production fell 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

* Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.8% from last release on Sep 30.

Aluminium

Aluminium settled 0.57% higher at Rs. 335.35, gaining Rs. 1.9, supported by declining inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, which fell 7.8% from the September 30 report. However, the upside remained limited by improving Middle Eastern production and rising shipments from Indonesia, indicating better global supply prospects. Japanese aluminium buyers agreed to pay a premium of $255 per metric ton for October to December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, reflecting easing supply concerns. Macquarie revised its forecast for the 2026 global aluminium market deficit downward to 820,000 tons, citing faster-than-expected restarts in Middle Eastern smelters, while projecting a surplus of 410,000 tons in 2027. Average aluminium prices are forecast at $3,050 per ton in 2027, compared with $3,325 in 2026. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminium production declined 1.5% year on year in August. Production in the Gulf Cooperation Council region plunged 43% to 299,000 tons, while Chinese output increased 3% to a record 3.87 million tons. Russia and Eastern Europe recorded 7% production growth, whereas North American output declined 1.5%. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased by 57,244 tons and London Metal Exchange stocks declined by 15,575 tons, indicating tighter available supplies. China's unwrought aluminium and semis exports reached 643,000 tons in July 2026, up 18.6% year on year but down 9.6% month on month. Cumulative exports during the first seven months increased 16.7% year on year to 4.04 million tons, highlighting the continued availability of Chinese metal in international markets. Additionally, Alcoa reduced its 2026 alumina production guidance to 9.5–9.6 million tons following cyclone-related disruptions and contamination issues at its Australian refinery. Technically, aluminium is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined 2.44% to 4,840 contracts alongside a price increase of Rs. 1.9. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 333.5, followed by Rs. 331.6, while resistance stands at Rs. 337.9 and Rs. 340.4. A sustained move above Rs. 337.9 could extend the recovery towards Rs. 340.4, whereas a break below Rs. 333.5 may expose the next support at Rs. 331.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 331.6-340.4.

* Aluminium gains as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 7.8%.

* However upside seen limited weighed down by a recovery in Middle Eastern production and rising shipments from Indonesia.

* Macquarie expects average aluminium prices at $3,050 in 2027 compared with $3,325 this year.

Turmeric

Turmeric settled 2.07% higher at Rs. 22,968, gaining Rs. 466, supported by renewed demand, reduced stockist selling and tight spot availability. Stockholders have started withholding supplies following earlier liquidation, while concerns over deficient rainfall, El Nino risks and potential yield losses have strengthened market sentiment. Karnataka's drought assessment reported turmeric crop losses across 13,446 hectares, valued at Rs. 18,824 lakh, against total state cultivation of approximately 18,000–20,000 hectares. However, India's turmeric production is estimated to increase around 15% in 2026, supported by an expected 20% expansion in acreage, particularly in Maharashtra. Improved monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with better reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, has eased immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, although traders remain cautious about whether favourable weather will translate into sustained yield improvements. Carryforward stocks are estimated at approximately 15 lakh bags, compared with over 20 lakh bags last season, indicating a reduced supply buffer. Meanwhile, stricter European Union maximum residue limit requirements have led to rejections of non-compliant turmeric lots, while demand for Integrated Pest Management certified supplies provides support to eligible stocks. India's turmeric exports declined 10% year on year to 13,489 tonnes in July 2026 from 15,071 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April–July increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes, supported by strong demand from Turkey, Sri Lanka and Nigeria. In Nizamabad, a major spot market, prices closed at Rs. 21,378.4, down 0.08%. Technically, turmeric is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 21.42% to 13,040 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 466, indicating strengthening participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 22,542, followed by Rs. 22,116, while resistance stands at Rs. 23,332 and Rs. 23,696. A sustained move above Rs. 23,332 could extend the rally towards Rs. 23,696, whereas a break below Rs. 22,542 may expose the next support at Rs. 22,116.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 22116-23696.

* Turmeric gained on renewed demand and reduced stockist selling, amid tight spot supply.

* Support also seen as drought conditions in Karnataka have severely affected crop, raising concerns over production.

* Stockholders, are now withholding stocks after earlier liquidation phases, effectively tightening spot availability just as demand improves

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 21378.4 Rupees dropped by -0.08 percent.

Jeera

Jeera settled 0.58% higher at Rs. 25,200, supported by tightening supplies of premium-quality bold seeds, reduced arrivals across major trading centres and expectations of lower production in the upcoming season. Farmers are holding stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing period, while declining arrivals in Unjha and Rajasthan have strengthened nearby supply concerns. However, gains remained limited by farmer selling to generate cash ahead of the new season, rising NCDEX warehouse stocks and cautious industrial buying. Export demand from Europe and North America has improved for residue-compliant, high-quality cumin, although geopolitical instability in the Middle East continues to affect logistics and traditional export markets. Indian cumin production is estimated at 90–92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, including 42–45 lakh bags in Gujarat and 48–50 lakh bags in Rajasthan. International production prospects remain mixed, with China's output estimated at 70,000–80,000 tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria, Turkey and Afghanistan are expected to produce 9,000–10,000 tonnes, 10,000–11,000 tonnes and 10,000–12,000 tonnes, respectively. Meanwhile, India's jeera exports declined 32% year on year to 9,318 tonnes in July 2026, while cumulative exports during April–July fell 27% to 53,462 tonnes. Although exports to Singapore increased significantly, shipments to China declined 88% to 710 tonnes, highlighting weakness in a major destination. In Unjha, a major spot market, prices closed at Rs. 24,626, gaining 0.97%. Technically, jeera is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest increasing 8.8% to 8,346 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs. 145, indicating strengthening market participation. Immediate support is placed at Rs. 24,700, followed by Rs. 24,210, while resistance stands at Rs. 25,740 and Rs. 26,290. A sustained move above Rs. 25,740 could extend the recovery towards Rs. 26,290, whereas a break below Rs. 24,700 may expose the next support at Rs. 24,210.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 24210-26290.

* Jeera gained amid continued tightness in nearby months with traders monitoring early sowing signals and festival demand.

* Farmers were reportedly holding back cumin stocks in anticipation of better prices during the October sowing window.

* Improved overseas buying is important and export demand can absorb domestic supply during the lean season.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 24626 Rupees gained by 0.97 percent.

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