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Gold

Gold prices declined sharply by 2.88% to settle at Rs 138,485, pressured by rising crude oil prices and stronger-than-expected US inflation data, which reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. US inflation accelerated in September, increasing the likelihood of a December rate hike, with markets pricing in nearly a 75% probability. Higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and expectations of elevated interest rates have also prompted analysts to lower their 2026 gold price forecast to $4,495 per ounce from $4,509 previously. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh indicated that inflation could return to the 2% target without significantly slowing economic growth, while Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish longer-term outlook, retaining its end-2027 forecast of $5,400 per ounce. The bank highlighted continued central bank diversification and sustained buying, particularly from China, as key structural supports. China's net gold imports through Hong Kong increased 28% month-on-month to 74.987 tonnes in September, reaching a five-month high, while its central bank extended its gold-buying streak to 23 consecutive months. However, physical demand across Asian markets remained subdued, with Indian buyers delaying purchases amid expectations of further price declines. China's bullion premiums also eased to $0-$9 per ounce from $9-$10 previously, reflecting weaker demand. Meanwhile, gold holdings in London vaults increased 1.96% month-on-month to 9,821 tonnes at the end of September, valued at approximately $1.3 trillion. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, as open interest increased by 4.9% to 16,368 contracts while prices declined by Rs 4,111, indicating fresh short positions. Gold is currently finding support at Rs 136,960, below which prices could test Rs 135,440. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 141,290, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 144,090.

Trading Ideas:

• Gold trading range for the day is 135440-144090.

• Gold slipped as higher oil prices and robust US inflation data strengthened the case for another Fed interest rate hike.

• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation can be lowered to the 2% target without having to "throw sand in the gears"

• markets Are pricing in a nearly 75% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

• US inflation accelerated in September as consumers paid more for gasoline and other goods, supporting expectations of an interest rate increase in December.

Silver

Silver prices declined sharply by 5.45% to settle at Rs 179,132, pressured by persistent US inflation, resilient economic growth and expectations of further Federal Reserve monetary tightening. The US PCE price index increased 0.5% month-on-month in September, its biggest rise since March, while annual inflation accelerated to 3.6% and core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1%. Meanwhile, US GDP expanded by 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 3.2%, supported by strong consumer spending and AI-related investments. Although the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, markets are pricing in nearly a 75% probability of a December rate hike, weighing on precious metals. On the supply-demand front, HSBC expects the silver market deficit to narrow significantly from 140 million ounces in 2025 to just 5 million ounces in 2026, citing rising mine supply, scrap availability and recycling alongside weaker industrial and jewellery demand. However, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus expect the market to record its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with the shortfall widening to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025. Total demand is forecast to decline by 2%, while industrial fabrication could fall 3% to a four-year low, partly offset by an 18% recovery in coin and bar demand. Despite improved market liquidity following the return of metal from US inventories, approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from global stocks since 2021, highlighting underlying supply tightness. Meanwhile, silver holdings in London vaults increased 1.95% month-on-month to 28,985 tonnes at the end of September. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, as open interest increased by 1.36% to 18,105 contracts while prices declined by Rs 10,321, indicating fresh short positions. Silver is currently finding support at Rs 175,880, below which prices could test Rs 172,620. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 185,330, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 191,530.

Trading Ideas:

• Silver trading range for the day is 172620-191530.

• Silver dropped as persistent inflation and resilient economic growth in the US reinforced expectations of a potential rate hike.

• Data showed US gross domestic product grew more than expected last quarter, while inflation accelerated in September.

• Spot silver dropped below $50, breaching the key psychological level for the first time since November 2025.

• HSBC expects silver’s market deficit to shrink from 140 million ounces in 2025 to 5 million ounces this year.

Crude oil

Crude oil prices gained 2.35% to settle at Rs 9,937, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, with traders concerned about potential supply disruptions following an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continued as Qatari mediators returned to Tehran to facilitate negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Supply concerns prompted major financial institutions to raise their price forecasts, with ANZ increasing its December Brent forecast to $105 per barrel from $95, while UBS raised its year-end 2026 forecast to $110 from $100. ANZ warned that further escalation could push prices towards $120, whereas a credible diplomatic breakthrough could bring Brent back to $90-$95. On the inventory front, US crude stocks declined by 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million barrels, against market expectations of a slight increase, while Cushing inventories fell by 624,000 barrels. Distillate inventories also declined by 1.5 million barrels, although gasoline stocks increased sharply by 3.9 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million barrels per day at the beginning of the year, marking its sixth consecutive downward revision, but raised its outlook for 2027, anticipating a recovery in deferred demand and inventory rebuilding. OPEC+ production increased in September, led by higher Saudi Arabian output, while Russian crude production remained below year-ago levels amid continued disruptions to refining operations caused by Ukrainian strikes. The International Energy Agency also highlighted limited recovery in Russian refining capacity despite easing diesel export restrictions. Overall, geopolitical supply risks and declining US crude inventories continue to provide support, although weaker demand projections remain a limiting factor. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased by 17.67% to 16,136 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs 228, indicating the formation of fresh long positions. Crude oil is currently finding support at Rs 9,805, below which prices could test Rs 9,680. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 10,020, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 10,100.

Trading Ideas:

• Crude Oil trading range for the day is 9680-10100.

• Crude oil gained as traders braced for a potential escalation in the US-Iran conflict after the US midterm elections.

• Qatari mediators returned to Tehran as part of coordinated efforts to reach a deal between the US and Iran.

• ANZ raised its December 31 Brent crude oil price forecast to $105 a barrel from $95/bbl previously

• UBS has raised its Brent forecast for the second time this month and now expects crude to trade at $110 a barrel at the end of 2026, up from 100.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices declined by 1.67% to settle at Rs 277.10, pressured by a larger-than-expected US storage build and forecasts of milder weather, which are likely to limit heating demand ahead of winter. Meteorologists expect temperatures across most of the US to remain above normal through November 13, reducing near-term consumption. US natural gas inventories increased by 80 billion cubic feet in the week ended October 23, exceeding market expectations of a 75 Bcf build, taking total stocks to 3.724 trillion cubic feet. Inventories are currently 3.8% below year-ago levels but 1% above the five-year average. Meanwhile, US natural gas production has recovered to around 113.3 Bcf per day after declining to 112.1 Bcf per day on average in October. LNG export flows also increased to 18.5 Bcf per day, compared with 17.9 Bcf per day in September, providing some demand support. The EIA expects US dry gas production to rise to 112.2 Bcf per day in 2026 and 116.1 Bcf per day in 2027, while domestic consumption is projected at 92.4 Bcf per day and 93.8 Bcf per day, respectively. LNG exports are also forecast to increase to 17.6 Bcf per day in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf per day in 2027. However, rising production is expected to outpace demand growth, creating a more comfortable supply situation. Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 natural gas price forecast to $2.80 per MMBtu from $3.50, citing stronger Permian production and an expected supply surplus exceeding 2 Bcf per day. The bank expects the market to remain well supplied in the near term, with meaningful tightening potentially delayed until 2029. Overall, rising production, comfortable inventories and milder weather continue to weigh on the near-term price outlook, although increasing LNG exports could provide some support. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined by 4.04% to 56,538 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs 4.70, indicating the closure of existing long positions. Natural gas is currently finding support at Rs 272, below which prices could test Rs 267. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 281, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 285.

Trading Ideas:

• Natural Gas trading range for the day is 267.00-285.00.

• Natural gas fell after a larger-than-expected storage build and forecasts for milder weather signaled weaker heating demand.

• US EIA said energy firms added 80 billion cubic feet of gas to storage during the week ended October 23.

• Meteorologists predicted weather across the US would remain mostly milder than normal through November 13, which should limit heating demand.

• Average gas output states slid to 112.1 bcfd in October from record highs of 113.3 bcfd in both August and September.

Copper

Copper prices declined by 1.50% to settle at Rs 1,373.60, pressured by concerns over heavy artificial intelligence-related investments and uncertainty about their potential returns, which weighed on overall risk appetite. However, downside remained somewhat limited by tight availability in traditional consuming markets, as substantial shipments into US warehouses continued to divert metal from other regions. The LME cash contract premium over the three-month benchmark highlighted nearby supply tightness, while China's Yangshan copper premium remained near a 13-year high of $205 per tonne, indicating strong appetite for imported copper. China's copper imports increased 20.7% month-on-month to 461,000 tonnes in September, while Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories declined 17.9% from the previous week. Supply concerns also persisted as Chile's copper production fell 15.1% year-on-year to 387,870 tonnes in September. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 copper price forecast to $14,700 per tonne and its 2027 average forecast to $15,400, citing weaker mine supply and tightening availability outside the US. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of 132,000 tonnes in August, compared with a deficit of 45,000 tonnes in July, taking the January-August surplus to 218,000 tonnes. The ICSG expects the global refined copper surplus to widen from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027, supported by higher production from new smelters and expanding mining capacity. Refined copper consumption is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, supported by energy transition, electrification, digitalisation and data centre demand. Overall, strong Chinese import demand and mine supply disruptions are providing underlying support, although rising refined production and projected market surpluses could limit further gains. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling, as open interest increased by 0.79% to 6,875 contracts while prices declined by Rs 20.85, indicating fresh short positions. Copper is currently finding support at Rs 1,366, below which prices could test Rs 1,358. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 1,388, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 1,402.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Copper trading range for the day is 1358.00-1402.50.

• Copper dropped as concerns that heavy spending on AI may not generate sufficient returns weighed on risk appetite.

• Chile's copper output falls 15.1% year – on – year in September

• The Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of Chinese demand for imported copper, remained near a 13-year high of $205 a ton.

Zinc

Zinc prices declined by 0.89% to settle at Rs 405.80, pressured by expectations of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability, which could ease supply tightness. However, downside remained limited amid concerns over mine supply disruptions and shortages outside China. Near-term supply tightness was reflected in the LME cash zinc premium over the three-month contract, which surged to $106 per tonne from $45 last week. Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories declined 1.6% from the previous week. China's refined zinc production fell 1.9% month-on-month and 6.4% year-on-year in September, although mine output is expected to recover in October as previously disrupted operations resume. Globally, Western refined zinc production declined 3.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 amid high energy costs and limited raw material availability. Uncertainty surrounding the future of Nyrstar's Budel smelter in the Netherlands has also added to supply concerns. According to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group, the global refined zinc market shifted to a deficit of 3,900 tonnes in August from a surplus of 27,500 tonnes in July, while the cumulative surplus during the first eight months narrowed to 96,000 tonnes from 133,000 tonnes a year earlier. However, the ILZSG expects the global refined zinc market to move into a surplus of 25,000 tonnes in 2027 from a projected deficit of 88,000 tonnes in 2026, as refined production rises 2% to 14.21 million tonnes and mine production increases 3% to 12.78 million tonnes. Global zinc demand is forecast to grow 1.2% to 14.19 million tonnes in 2027, supported by consumption in Europe, India and the US, although slower Chinese demand growth amid weakness in the property sector could limit gains. China's refined zinc imports also declined 79% year-on-year to 38,000 tonnes during January-June, highlighting its growing self-sufficiency. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined by 5.03% to 2,077 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs 3.65, indicating the closure of existing long positions. Zinc is currently finding support at Rs 403.50, below which prices could test Rs 401. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 410, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 414.50.

Trading Ideas:

• Zinc trading range for the day is 401.00-414.50.

• Zinc dropped as prospect of a recovery in Chinese mine production and improved concentrate availability could ease supply tightness.

• Zinc inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 1.6% from last Friday, the exchange said.

• Near-term tightness was evident from the premium of LME cash zinc over the three-month contract, which has spiked to $106 a ton from $45 last week.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.11% to settle at Rs 329.80, supported by a sharp decline in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories, which fell 10.3% from the previous week to 212,858 tonnes. However, gains remained limited amid a stronger US dollar and concerns over a potential global supply surplus in 2027. Supply conditions are gradually improving, with Emirates Global Aluminium restarting 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity, while full production is expected by the first quarter of 2027. Meanwhile, China continued to maintain high smelting rates, with primary aluminium production rising 3.1% year-on-year to 3.91 million tonnes in September, while third-quarter output increased 2.2% to a record 11.84 million tonnes. Production during January-September reached 35.03 million tonnes, up 3.8% year-on-year, highlighting strong domestic supply despite the longstanding capacity ceiling. Globally, aluminium production remained under pressure, with International Aluminium Institute data showing September primary output declining to 6.014 million tonnes from 6.10 million tonnes a year earlier. However, expectations of additional supply from Indonesia and the recovery of Gulf smelters are weighing on the medium-term outlook. Indonesian aluminium exports exceeded 150,000 tonnes in August, while easing shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz have improved the prospects of Gulf supply recovery. Analysts expect the global aluminium market to shift into a surplus of more than 1 million tonnes in 2027. Japanese buyers also agreed to pay premiums of $255 per tonne for October-December shipments, down 35% from the previous quarter, indicating easing supply concerns. Overall, declining exchange inventories and ongoing supply disruptions provide near-term support, while rising Chinese production and expected capacity additions in Indonesia and the Gulf could limit prices over the medium term. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, as open interest increased by 0.16% to 4,478 contracts alongside a price gain of Rs 0.35, indicating fresh long positions. Aluminium is currently finding support at Rs 328, below which prices could test Rs 326. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 332, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 334.

Trading Ideas:

• Aluminium trading range for the day is 326.00-334.00.

• Aluminium gained as inventories in warehouses monitored by the SHFE fell 10.3% from last Friday

• However upside was capped amid stronger dollar, and persistent concerns over a CY27 global surplus.

• EGA has restarted 631 of 1,262 reduction cells at its Al Taweelah smelter, restoring 50% of capacity.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices gained 0.50% to settle at Rs 26,896, supported by concerns over uncertain weather conditions in major producing regions and lower market arrivals. Total arrivals were estimated at around 6,000 bags, down by nearly 2,000 bags from the previous trading session, strengthening bullish sentiment. Persistently dry weather in parts of Maharashtra raised concerns over crop development and yield potential, while forecasts of cyclonic rainfall across South Indian producing regions added uncertainty to the crop outlook. However, the revival of monsoon activity across Maharashtra, Telangana and North Karnataka, along with improved reservoir levels in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, eased immediate crop failure concerns. Re-sowing in North Karnataka has also been completed following rainfall, improving crop prospects. Supply fundamentals remain supportive, with industry estimates indicating carry-forward stocks of around 15 lakh bags compared with over 20 lakh bags last season. However, farmer selling during the peak harvesting period and improved weather conditions could limit further gains. Export demand remained mixed, as India's turmeric exports declined 14% year-on-year to 14,736 tonnes in August 2026, compared with 17,136 tonnes a year earlier. However, cumulative exports during April-August increased 4% to 65,476 tonnes. Shipments to the UAE, Netherlands and Brazil recorded strong growth, while exports to Bangladesh and Saudi Arabia declined sharply. Demand for Integrated Pest Management certified turmeric from European buyers is providing additional support, although stricter European Union residue regulations have resulted in rejections of non-compliant stocks, putting pressure on commercial-grade prices. Meanwhile, the Nizamabad spot market closed at Rs 25,170.15, down 0.34%. Overall, lower carry-forward stocks and weather-related uncertainty remain supportive, while improved rainfall, farmer selling and mixed export demand could restrict the upside. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, as open interest declined by 1.50% to 18,040 contracts while prices increased by Rs 134, indicating the closure of existing short positions. Turmeric is currently finding support at Rs 26,670, below which prices could test Rs 26,450. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 27,190, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 27,490.

Trading Ideas:

• Turmeric trading range for the day is 26450-27490.

• Turmeric rose amid growing concerns over uncertain weather conditions and the possibility of adverse effects on the upcoming crop.

• Major turmeric-producing regions of Maharashtra have been experiencing persistently dry weather.

• Total turmeric arrivals were estimated at around 6,000 bags, approximately 2,000 bags lower than in the previous trading session.

• In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 25170.15 Rupees dropped by 0.34 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices declined marginally by 0.10% to settle at Rs 26,230, as profit booking emerged after recent gains supported by rising export demand, tightening supplies and weather-related concerns. The El Niño phenomenon and limited water availability have raised concerns over rainfall patterns and sowing prospects in key cumin-growing regions of Rajasthan and Gujarat. The Gujarat government declared Jamnagar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Porbandar and Kutch as scarcity-hit districts, highlighting concerns over agricultural conditions. Meanwhile, minimal Syrian supplies have increased reliance on Indian cumin, although improving production prospects in Turkey and Syria could put pressure on Indian export premiums. Domestic production is estimated at 90-92 lakh bags this season, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, with Gujarat production projected at 42-45 lakh bags and Rajasthan at 48-50 lakh bags. However, aggressive farmer selling to generate liquidity for the upcoming season, improved harvesting conditions in North-West India and rising NCDEX warehouse stocks are limiting immediate supply concerns. Industrial spice grinders are also avoiding bulk purchases, preferring hand-to-mouth procurement. Export performance remains weak, with India's jeera exports declining 19.7% year-on-year to 11,667 tonnes in August 2026, while cumulative exports during April-August fell to 65,128 tonnes from 87,558 tonnes a year earlier. Shipments to the USA, Singapore and Mexico increased, whereas exports to the UAE and Bangladesh declined sharply. On a broader annual basis, exports during September 2025-August 2026 declined 17.4% to 174,479 tonnes. Meanwhile, the Unjha spot market closed at Rs 26,263.45, gaining 0.03%. Overall, lower domestic production estimates and weather uncertainties provide underlying support, while weak exports, farmer liquidation and cautious industrial buying could restrict further upside. Technically, the market is witnessing long unwinding, as open interest declined by 6% to 7,380 contracts alongside a price fall of Rs 25, indicating the closure of existing long positions. Jeera is currently finding support at Rs 26,040, below which prices could test Rs 25,850. On the upside, resistance is placed at Rs 26,510, and a sustained move above this level could push prices towards Rs 26,800.

Trading Ideas:

• Jeera trading range for the day is 25850-26800.

• Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices amid rising export demand and tightening global as well as domestic supplies.

• Concerns over weather conditions and limited water supply due to the El Niño phenomenon are adding to the upward price pressure in jeera.

• With Syrian supplies remaining minimum, demand for Indian cumin seed is higher.

• In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 26263.45 Rupees gained by 0.03 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views