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India’s cotton production estimate for 2024–25 has been slightly raised to 291.35 lakh bales, thanks to improved yields in Odisha. However, overall demand is weakening due to increasing preference for man-made fibres and labour shortages in the textile industry. Cotton consumption has been revised down by 8 lakh bales to 307 lakh bales, while exports are also expected to fall sharply to 15 lakh bales from 28.36 lakh bales last season. Imports have surged to over 33 lakh bales, more than doubling year-on-year. Cotton prices may remain under pressure due to high stocks, sluggish consumption, and strong competition from synthetic alternatives.

Key Highlights

* Cotton output revised to 291.35 lakh bales for 2024–25.

* Consumption cut to 307 lakh bales amid weak demand.

* Cotton exports fall sharply to 15 lakh bales this season.

* Imports double year-on-year to 33 lakh bales.

* Spinning mills hold 35 lakh bales, enough for 42 days.

India’s cotton market is witnessing a mixed trend as production estimates inch higher while demand and exports show visible signs of slowdown. The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has raised the 2024–25 production estimate marginally to 291.35 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), up from 291.30 lakh bales, driven mainly by increased output in Odisha.

Despite this upward revision, prices remain under pressure as consumption trends remain weak. CAI has cut the cotton consumption forecast by 8 lakh bales to 307 lakh bales due to reduced uptake by spinning mills. The decline is attributed to labour shortages and a growing shift towards man-made fibres such as viscose and polyester, which offer up to 98% realisation compared to just 72–75% for cotton.

Exports have also taken a hit. The revised cotton export estimate is now 15 lakh bales, down from 16 lakh bales previously and a significant drop from 28.36 lakh bales in the last season. So far, only 10 lakh bales have been shipped in the first seven months since October 2024.

On the other hand, cotton imports have surged to 33 lakh bales, more than double the previous season’s 15.20 lakh bales. By April 2025, 27.5 lakh bales had already been imported.

High carryover stock levels are another concern. Cotton ending stocks are expected to touch 32.54 lakh bales by September 30, 2025, up from 30.19 lakh bales last year. Spinning mills hold around 35 lakh bales—enough for 42 days of consumption—highlighting the subdued demand environment.

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