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Gold

Gold prices ended marginally higher by 0.03% at ?100,185 as investors assessed the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook in light of softer US inflation data. July CPI eased to 2.7% against the expected 2.8%, while core inflation ticked up to 3.1% from 2.9%, boosting expectations for a 25 bps rate cut in September. This underpinned bullion’s appeal despite mixed signals on possible tariffs for imported gold bars. Geopolitical developments, including an extension of the US-China tariff truce and upcoming US–Russia talks, also shaped market sentiment. On the physical front, China’s central bank extended its gold buying streak for a ninth month in July, raising reserves to 73.96 million ounces, valued at $243.99 billion. However, physical demand in key Asian hubs softened as high prices deterred buyers, with India seeing discounts of up to $9 per ounce. Global gold demand in Q2 2025 rose 3% YoY to 1,248.8 tons, led by a 78% jump in investment demand and 21% growth in bar demand, offsetting weaker jewellery consumption, which fell 14% to its lowest since Q3 2020. Central bank purchases declined 21% to 166.5 tons, while recycling supply rose 4% to 347.2 tons. Technically, the market is under fresh buying with open interest rising 1.73% to 12,901 as prices gained Rs 28. Immediate support is at Rs100,005, with a break below likely testing Rs 99,820. On the upside, resistance is seen at Rs 100,495, and a move above this could open the way towards Rs 100,800.

Trading Ideas:

*Gold trading range for the day is 99820-100800.

*Gold steadied as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook following the latest CPI data.

*July’s headline inflation came in at 2.7%, below the 2.8% forecast, while core inflation rose to 3.1% from 2.9%.

*Attention now turns to upcoming releases, including PPI, weekly jobless claims, and retail sales.

Silver

Silver prices gained 1.14% to settle at ?115,029, supported by US inflation data that reinforced expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate cut. Headline inflation held steady at 2.7% against forecasts of 2.8%, while core inflation rose to 3.1%, a six-month high. Market pricing now places the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at 99.9%, with some speculation of a 50 bps move amid soft employment data. Additional support came from improving industrial metals sentiment following renewed US–China trade talks and robust physical investment trends. On the fundamental side, silver ETP inflows reached 95 Moz in the first half of 2025, surpassing the total for all of 2024, pushing holdings to 1.13 Boz, just 7% below the February 2021 peak. Indian retail investment demand rose 7% YoY in H1 2025, while Europe continued its gradual recovery from late 2024 lows. The market is set to post its fifth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2025, underpinned by record industrial demand, projected to exceed 700 Moz, driven by green economy applications. Physical investment is forecast to grow by 3%, while jewelry demand is expected to decline 6%, largely due to high prices in India. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest dropping 6.55% to 14,889 as prices rose Rs1,292. Immediate support is at Rs 114,330, with a break below opening the path to Rs 113,630. On the upside, resistance is at ?115,600, and a move above could target Rs 116,170.

Trading Ideas:

*Silver trading range for the day is 113630-116170.

*Silver rose after US inflation data reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.

*The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100%.

*US inflation data below expectations, easing stagflation fears

Crude oil

Crude oil prices slipped 1.3% to settle at ?5,476, pressured by the International Energy Agency’s forecast of a growing oil surplus this year and next. The IEA projects inventories to rise at a record pace, reaching a 46-month high by June 2026, echoing a similar outlook from the US government. Despite expectations of peak US production this year, gains are being supported by improved well efficiency. Market sentiment was also influenced by geopolitical developments, with attention on the upcoming US–Russia summit in Alaska aimed at resolving the Ukraine conflict, though Ukrainian resistance to territorial concessions may complicate any agreement that could ease sanctions on Russian oil. US crude inventories rose by 3.037 million barrels in the week ended August 8, against market forecasts of a 0.8 million barrel draw, while Cushing hub stocks increased by 45,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks fell by 0.792 million barrels, but distillate inventories grew by 0.714 million barrels. Meanwhile, OPEC raised its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million bpd, up 100,000 bpd from its previous projection, while cutting its non-OPEC+ supply growth forecast to 630,000 bpd from 730,000 bpd. This tighter outlook could support OPEC+’s strategy to regain market share after years of supply restraint. Technically, the market is in long liquidation mode, with open interest down 2.61% to 10,429 as prices fell Rs 72. Support lies at Rs 5,415, with further downside potential to Rs 5,353. Resistance is at Rs 5,548, and a break above could open the way to Rs 5,619.

Trading Ideas:

*Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5353-5619.

*Crude oil dropped after the International Energy Agency forecast a growing oil surplus this year and next.

*U.S. crude production will hit a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025 due to increases in well productivity.

*US oil production is projected to peak this year before declining next year, boosted by greater efficiency at existing wells.

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rose by 0.9% to settle at 246.9, supported by forecasts of stronger demand over the next two weeks and sustained high flows to LNG export facilities. Gains came despite near-record production levels, ample storage, and the looming threat of a potential demand-reducing hurricane along the U.S. East Coast next week. The U.S. National Hurricane Center projected that Tropical Storm Erin could strengthen into a major hurricane as it moves toward the Bahamas. LSEG data showed that average output in the Lower 48 states increased to 108.2 bcfd so far in August, surpassing July’s record of 107.9 bcfd. However, daily production recently eased to a one-month low of 106.7 bcfd after touching a record high of 109.7 bcfd on July 28. Weather forecasts indicate above-normal temperatures through August 28, though cooler than previously expected. The latest EIA report showed U.S. utilities added 7 bcf of gas to storage for the week ending August 1, below the expected 15 bcf build. Total inventories stand at 3.130 tcf, 4.2% below year-ago levels but 5.9% above the five-year average. The EIA projects record U.S. gas production of 106.4 bcfd in 2025 before a slight decline in 2026, with LNG exports expected to climb sharply. Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest falling 7.32% to 42,836 as prices rose by 2.2 rupees. Immediate support is at 242.8, with a break below opening the door to 238.8, while resistance is at 250.3, above which prices could test 253.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 238.8-253.8.

* Natural gas rose on higher demand forecasts and strong LNG exports.

* However, upside seen limited amid near-record output and ample storage supplies nationwide.

* Weather hotter than normal through August 28 but cooler than forecast.

Copper

Copper prices slipped by 0.53% to settle at 888.1, pressured by rising inventories and easing supply concerns. LME-approved warehouse stocks climbed 11% in August, while SHFE stocks rose nearly 13%, signaling ample availability. Market sentiment was also influenced by the U.S. decision to exempt refined copper from the 50% import tariff, while targeting semi-finished products like wires and pipes. This has left U.S. traders holding significant domestic stockpiles. On the supply front, Chile’s Codelco reported a 17% year-on-year output increase in June to 120,200 metric tons, with parts of the El Teniente mine cleared to reopen after a fatal incident. Goldman Sachs projects a modest decline in LME copper prices to $9,550 per metric ton in August but maintains a long COMEX-LME arbitrage position, citing underpricing of likely tariffs. ICSG data showed the global refined copper market moved into a 97,000-ton surplus in May from an 80,000-ton deficit in April, with year-to-date surplus holding steady at 272,000 tons. China’s copper concentrate imports rose 9% in July to 2.56 million tonnes, supporting record smelting output, while unwrought copper imports edged up 3.4% despite softer demand due to price and supply constraints. The market witnessed long liquidation, with open interest falling 11.4% to 5,276 as prices dropped by 4.75 rupees. Immediate support is at 885, with further downside potential toward 881.8. Resistance is seen at 893.4, and a break above could push prices toward 898.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 881.8-898.6.

* Copper dropped amid higher LME and SHFE copper stocks.

* Stocks in LME-approved warehouses have climbed by 11% so far in August

* SHFE copper warehouses stocks are up nearly 13%.

Zinc

Zinc prices fell by 1% to settle at 268.3, pressured by rising Chinese refined zinc production and mixed demand signals. China’s refined zinc output rose 4% year-on-year during January–July, while imports of zinc concentrates surged 48% in January–June, supported by increased supply from the DRC and Russia as new mines ramped up. On the macro front, China’s new yuan loans contracted in July for the first time in two decades, reflecting weaker domestic activity, though total social financing grew 9%, its fastest pace since February 2024. The U.S. and China extended their tariff truce deadline by 90 days, supporting sentiment ahead of the seasonal September demand peak, but manufacturing activity in China remained in contraction territory, limiting upside potential. Zinc supply dynamics showed tightening trends, with Chinese smelters under pressure to reduce output as capacity outpaces demand, while production in parts of South China was disrupted by heavy rainfall. Globally, mined output from Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine dropped 20% year-on-year in Q1, and Nyrstar announced a 25% annual production cut due to uncompetitive treatment charges amid ore shortages. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported the global zinc market shifted to a 44,100-ton deficit in May from a surplus in April, though the first five months of 2025 still showed an 88,000-ton surplus. The market witnessed long liquidation with open interest down 7% to 2,951 as prices dropped by 2.7 rupees. Support is at 267.3, with a break below potentially testing 266.2. Resistance lies at 270.4, and a move above could open the way toward 272.4.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 266.2-272.4.

* Zinc dropped as China's refined zinc output rose by 4% on a year-over-year basis in the January-July period.

* China's new yuan loans contracted in July for the first time in 20 years, falling well short of forecasts.

* The United States and China extended a tariff truce deadline for another 90 days, easing concerns over near-term trade friction.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices slipped by 0.59% to settle at 253.35 as China’s aluminium production in July 2025 rose 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM. Despite this increase, downside pressure remained limited amid expectations of robust demand and tighter supply conditions. European markets continue to face constrained supply due to sanctions on Russia, a key global producer. On the Comex exchange, aluminium premiums for post-August contracts fell on speculation that the U.S. might halve import tariffs or grant Canada an exemption. Since June 4, U.S. imports have been subject to a 50% levy, aimed at boosting domestic smelting and reducing dependence on foreign sources. The August contract premium has surged above 70 U.S. cents/lb ($1,543/ton), marking an almost 90% increase since late May. However, optimism over Chinese government fiscal stimulus faded, tempering industrial expansion expectations. Physical supply tightness persists, with aluminium stocks at Japan’s three main ports falling 0.4% MoM to 315,400 tons in July. On the trade front, China’s exports of unwrought aluminium and products climbed to 542,000 tons in July, up from June’s 489,000 tons, while imports in June surged 24.1% YoY to 300,000 tons. The market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 1.9% to 3,920 contracts as prices eased by Rs 1.5. Support lies at Rs 252.5, with a break below potentially testing Rs 251.4. Resistance is seen at Rs 255.2, and a move above could open the path toward Rs 256.8.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 251.4-256.8.

* Aluminium dropped as China’s aluminium production in July 2025 (31 days) increased by 1.05% YoY and 3.11% MoM.

* However downside seen limited amid signs of robust demand and expectations of lower supply.

* Supply for European factories is already limited due to sanctions of major producer Russia.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices surged by 2.49% to close at ?13,486, supported by tight supply as farmer-held stocks in Warangal are nearly exhausted and no fresh arrivals have been reported in the last two days. Low inflows, coupled with cautious selling, are lending firmness to the market. However, the upside remains capped due to increased acreage, aided by favourable rains in the current sowing season. Dry weather is enabling timely planting, and early estimates suggest turmeric acreage could rise by 15–20% as other crops offer lower profitability. For the 2024–25 season, turmeric area stands at 3.30 lakh hectares, up 10% from last year’s 3 lakh hectares. In Duggirala, fresh crop arrivals are drawing strong buyer interest, with new produce fetching higher prices than older stock due to better quality. Daily trade volumes remain steady at 1,000–1,200 bags (70 kg each), with around 50–55% of the new crop already traded. Harvesting continues, and arrivals are expected through June, keeping market activity robust. On the export front, Apr–May 2025 shipments rose by 8.37% to 34,162.28 tonnes compared to the same period in 2024. May 2025 exports stood at 19,205.45 tonnes, up 10.28% year-on-year and 28.41% month-on-month.  The market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 7.71% to 14,950, with prices gaining Rs 328. Support is at Rs 13,084, below which Rs 12,682 may be tested, while resistance is at Rs 13,704, and a break above could push prices towards Rs 13,922.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 12682-13922.

* Turmeric gains as turmeric stocks held by farmers in Warangal are nearly depleted.

* No fresh arrivals over the past two day, also support prices.

* Market participants are closely monitoring weather patterns and crop conditions.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 13778.05 Rupees dropped by -0.31 percent.

Jeera

Jeera futures yesterday settled marginally higher by 0.13% at ?19,125, supported by short covering after recent declines driven by weak domestic and export demand following the end of the retail season. Market sentiment remains subdued as foreign buyers stay inactive, and existing stocks comfortably meet the limited export business. Current estimates indicate farmers are still holding about 20 lakh bags, with only 3–4 lakh bags likely to be traded before the season ends, leaving a sizable carry-forward stock of around 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is expected to remain close to last year’s levels, with Gujarat likely producing 42–45 lakh bags and Rajasthan 48–50 lakh bags. On the global front, geopolitical disruptions in major producing countries like Syria, Turkey, and Afghanistan have reduced their output. Production estimates in China have been revised down from 1 lakh tonnes to 70–80 thousand tonnes due to adverse weather, while Syria’s output is pegged at 9–10 thousand tonnes, Turkey at 10–11 thousand tonnes, and Afghanistan at 10–12 thousand tonnes. Despite lower global availability, Indian exports during April–May 2025 fell sharply by 27.07% to 42,925.74 tonnes compared to the same period last year. In Unjha, the benchmark spot market, prices closed at Rs 19,126.25, down by 1.54%. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest rising 10.26% to 4,128 lots. Immediate support is seen at Rs 19,080, with a break below potentially testing Rs 19,030, while resistance is at Rs 19,160, and a move above could target Rs 19,190.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19030-19190.

* Jeera gains on short covering after prices dropped due to weak domestic post retail season.

* Only 3-4 lakh bags are expected to be traded by the end of the season, leaving a carry-forward stock of about 16 lakh bags

* Total arrivals witnessed a marginal increase to 12,000 bags (55 kg each) as against 11,800 bags on the previous day.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 19126.25 Rupees dropped by -1.54 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views