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Gold

Gold prices surged sharply, with the market settling higher by 5.7% at 162186, driven by a combination of domestic policy changes, escalating geopolitical tensions, and persistent inflation concerns. The biggest trigger came after India increased import tariffs on gold to 15% from 6%, aiming to curb imports and reduce pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The revised structure includes a 10% basic customs duty along with a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess, significantly raising the landed cost of gold. While the move may weigh on physical demand in the near term, it is expected to support the rupee and narrow the trade deficit. Global safe-haven demand also strengthened after US President Donald Trump described the US-Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support,” raising fears of renewed disruptions in the Middle East and prolonged uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, elevated US inflation data, with headline inflation rising to 3.8% and core inflation at 2.8%, reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. Major brokerages including BofA Global Research and Goldman Sachs pushed back expectations for future rate cuts. Investment demand for gold remained robust despite weaker jewellery buying. According to the World Gold Council, India’s gold ETF inflows surged 186% year-on-year during the March quarter, while investment demand overtook jewellery consumption for the first time on record. Globally, central bank buying and strong bar and coin demand continued to support prices. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest dropped by 12.2% to settle at 8367 while prices rallied by 8744 rupees. Gold is now getting support at 156525, with further downside support at 150865. On the upside, resistance is seen at 166170, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards 170155.

Trading Ideas:

* Gold trading range for the day is 150865-170155.

*  Gold prices rallied after India has raised import tariffs on gold to 15% from 6%.

*  Inflows into India's gold ETFs surged 186% year-on-year in the March quarter to a record 20 metric tons

*  US inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, while the core rate also exceeded expectations at 2.8%.

Silver

Silver prices rallied sharply, with the market settling higher by 7.59% at 300238, supported by a combination of strong investment demand, tighter global supply expectations, and India’s decision to sharply raise import duties on precious metals. India increased the effective import tariff on silver to 15% from 6% by imposing a 10% basic customs duty along with a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC). The move is aimed at reducing overseas purchases and easing pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves, but it also triggered strong domestic price gains. Global market sentiment remained supported by persistent geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation risks. US inflation accelerated to 3.8%, the highest since March 2023, while core inflation also exceeded expectations at 2.8%, reducing hopes for early Federal Reserve rate cuts. Energy prices remained elevated amid the ongoing Iran conflict and continued disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump described the ceasefire situation as being “on life support,” further boosting safe-haven sentiment across precious metals. Silver fundamentals also remained constructive as the Silver Institute projected the global silver market to remain in a structural deficit for a sixth consecutive year. Physical silver investment demand is expected to rise by nearly 20% this year, supported by improving investor appetite and continued industrial demand from solar, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors. China’s silver imports hit a record high in March at around 836 metric tons, driven by strong retail investment demand and aggressive stockpiling by photovoltaic manufacturers. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 2.52% to settle at 7892 while prices surged by 21176 rupees. Silver is now getting support at 292010, with further downside support at 283785. On the upside, resistance is likely at 306675, and a move above this level could push prices towards 313115.

Trading Ideas:

* Silver trading range for the day is 283785-313115.

* Silver prices rallied after India has raised import tariffs on gold to 15% from 6%.

* Hotter-than-expected US inflation data reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

* The global silver market is expected to remain in a structural deficit for a sixth straight year

Crude oil

Crude oil prices ended marginally lower by 0.12% at 9711 as traders balanced tightening supply conditions against weaker global demand expectations. Market sentiment remained volatile after OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, joining the International Energy Agency in revising projections lower due to the economic and logistical impact of the ongoing Iran war. OPEC now expects global oil demand to rise by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, down from its earlier estimate of 1.38 million bpd, while demand growth for 2027 was revised higher to 1.54 million bpd, reflecting expectations of a stronger recovery once geopolitical tensions ease. Despite weaker demand forecasts, supply concerns continued to support crude prices. The International Energy Agency warned that global oil supply may fail to meet total demand this year as disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict intensify. The agency estimated that more than 14 million barrels per day of production remain shut in due to restricted tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz, creating one of the largest supply shocks in recent history. Russian crude production also declined by 460,000 barrels per day in April compared to last year, mainly due to intensified Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure. Further support came from bullish US inventory data. US crude stocks declined by 4.306 million barrels last week to 452.9 million barrels, significantly above market expectations. Gasoline inventories also dropped sharply by 4.084 million barrels, indicating healthy fuel demand, while refinery utilization improved slightly. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined by 20.61% to settle at 9273 while prices slipped by 12 rupees. Crude oil is now getting support at 9565, with further downside support at 9419. On the upside, resistance is likely at 9906, and a move above this level could push prices towards 10101.

Trading Ideas:

* Crudeoil trading range for the day is 9419-10101.

* Crude oil dropped as OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026

* OPEC cuts Q2 oil demand forecast by further 500,000 bpd amid Iran war impact

* OPEC+ output drops by 1.74 million bpd in April on Hormuz closure

Natural gas

Natural gas prices settled higher by 1.59% at 275.2, supported by expectations of stronger near-term demand and a continued decline in U.S. gas production. Market sentiment improved after major producers, including EQT, reduced output due to weak spot prices, tightening supply conditions across the Lower 48 states. Average gas production in the U.S. slipped to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day in May, down from 109.6 bcfd in April and below the record high of 110.6 bcfd recorded in December 2025. Daily production also declined sharply by nearly 4.3 bcfd over the past three days to a one-week low of 105.9 bcfd, highlighting ongoing supply adjustments by producers. Additional support came after reports that a liquefaction train at the Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas resumed operations following a temporary shutdown caused by a compressor issue. Improved LNG export activity is expected to support demand for natural gas in the coming weeks. Weather forecasts indicating mostly near-normal temperatures through May 27 also kept market expectations stable, with cooling demand gradually increasing as summer approaches. On the inventory side, U.S. energy firms injected 79 billion cubic feet of gas into storage for the week ended April 24, broadly in line with expectations. However, the build remained below last year’s increase of 105 bcf, signaling relatively tighter supply conditions. Total inventories stood at 2.142 trillion cubic feet, around 5.7% above year-ago levels and 7.7% above the five-year seasonal average. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration projected record production growth in the coming years, with output expected to rise to 110.6 bcfd in 2026 and 115 bcfd in 2027, driven mainly by expansion in the Permian and Haynesville regions. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 4.35% to settle at 20505 while prices gained 4.3 rupees. Natural gas is now getting support at 269.8, with further downside support at 264.3. On the upside, resistance is likely at 280.6, and a move above this level could push prices towards 285.9.

Trading Ideas:

* Naturalgas trading range for the day is 264.3-285.9.

* Natural gas climbed on forecasts for more demand than previously expected and a continued decline in output.

* Output across the Lower 48 states has trended lower in recent weeks as major producers, including EQT

* U.S. natural gas output will rise to a record high in 2026, while demand will decline, EIA said.

Copper

Copper prices settled higher by 0.63% at 1398.9, supported by persistent supply concerns and expectations of stronger demand from China. Market sentiment remained firm amid expectations that China’s refined copper imports will increase during the second quarter due to stable industrial demand and lower domestic refined output caused by ongoing smelter maintenance activity. Supply-side concerns also intensified after Freeport-McMoRan reduced its second-half 2026 recovery forecast for the Grasberg mine in Indonesia to 65% from 85%, even though the company denied reports suggesting full production recovery may be delayed until 2028. Further support came from disruptions in sulphuric acid shipments linked to the Middle East conflict. Sulphuric acid is a critical raw material used in copper refining, and China’s decision to ban sulphuric acid exports from May through December has added to concerns over refining operations. Copper mine production in Chile also declined around 6% during the first quarter of 2026 compared to last year, tightening the overall supply outlook. On the inventory front, copper stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 5.6%, indicating healthy spot demand, while COMEX inventories remained elevated at 561,066 tons. However, the International Copper Study Group reported a global refined copper surplus of 276,000 metric tons in February and projected the market to remain in surplus through 2026 and 2027 due to slower demand growth and increased secondary production. Global refined copper demand is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2026, while Chinese demand is projected to rise by 1.9%. China’s imports of unwrought copper and copper products declined 10.9% in March, though refined copper production increased 8.7% year-on-year to 1.33 million metric tons. Citi maintained a constructive outlook, expecting copper to remain supported above $12,000 per ton despite geopolitical risks. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 2.26% to settle at 10208 while prices gained 8.75 rupees. Copper is now getting support at 1391.4, with further downside support at 1383.8. On the upside, resistance is likely at 1410.3, and a breakout above this level could push prices towards 1421.6.

Trading Ideas:

* Copper trading range for the day is 1383.8-1421.6.

* Copper prices rose as supply concerns and expectations of higher demand from China.

* Also supporting prices were expectations that China's refined copper imports will rise in the second quarter.

* China's central bank vows support to boost domestic demand

Zinc

Zinc prices settled higher by 0.66% at 364.75, supported by ongoing supply concerns and improving demand expectations from China. Positive macroeconomic data from China boosted sentiment across industrial metals after consumer prices rose 1.2% in April, above market expectations of 0.9%, while factory-gate prices climbed 2.8%, reaching a 45-month high. China’s central bank also reiterated its commitment to maintaining an appropriately loose monetary policy and increasing financial support for domestic demand and technological innovation, which further strengthened optimism for industrial metal consumption. Supply-side fundamentals remained supportive as the zinc market continues to face one of the largest supply deficits among major base metals despite rising production. Falling inventories on the London Metal Exchange and lower treatment charges for zinc concentrate highlighted tightening raw material availability. Zinc concentrate treatment charges continued to decline, indicating persistent supply tightness in the concentrate market. Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventories fell 1.8% on the week, while SMM data showed zinc concentrate inventories at ports declined by 12,100 metric tons, reinforcing the tighter supply outlook. However, gains remained capped after Swedish miner Boliden announced that production at its Garpenberg zinc mine would resume in the second quarter. Additional supply relief is also expected from the restart of the Tara mine and the ramp-up of Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project. The International Lead and Zinc Study Group reported that the global zinc market shifted to a surplus of 9,200 metric tons in January from a deficit in December, although the surplus remained smaller than last year. Goldman Sachs expects the zinc market to remain in a small surplus during 2026, but projects tighter conditions from 2027 onward as mine supply growth slows outside China. Global zinc demand is expected to grow around 2% annually through 2027. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined by 2.87% to settle at 2199 while prices gained 2.4 rupees. Zinc is now getting support at 362.2, with further downside support at 359.5. On the upside, resistance is likely at 367.2, and a move above this level could push prices towards 369.5.

Trading Ideas:

* Zinc trading range for the day is 359.5-369.5.

* Zinc gains amid supply concerns and expectations of higher demand from China.

* China's central bank will continue to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy, and strengthen financial support.

* China's consumer prices rose 1.2% in April from a year earlier, while factory-gate prices jumped 2.8%.

Aluminium

Aluminium prices extended gains and settled higher by 2.14% at 386.1, supported by escalating supply concerns linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict and improving industrial demand expectations from China. The rally was largely driven by fears of supply disruptions after Iranian strikes impacted two regional smelters in late March, tightening availability in global markets. Sentiment also remained firm after CRU projected aluminium prices to stay above $4,000 per metric ton between Q3 2026 and Q2 2027, while BOFA advanced its $4,000 forecast timeline to Q4 2026. JP Morgan also maintained a bullish outlook, forecasting a 1.9 million ton global aluminium deficit in 2026 due to disruptions in Middle East supply. China continued to provide strong support to the market through stable manufacturing activity and rising imports. China’s unwrought aluminium imports rose 6.9% year-on-year in March to 360,000 metric tons, while first-quarter imports increased 1.6% to 960,000 tons. Primary aluminium production in China rose 2.7% year-on-year in March to 3.85 million tons. Additionally, Chinese aluminium exports jumped 15% in April, reflecting stronger overseas demand amid tightening global supplies. Japanese aluminium port inventories declined 7.4% month-on-month, while buyers agreed to pay the highest premiums in 11 years for quarterly shipments, highlighting the tight physical market conditions. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest dropped by 14.05% to settle at 2900 while prices gained 8.1 rupees. Aluminium is now getting support at 378.6, below which prices may test 371.1 levels, while resistance is seen at 390.3, with a move above likely to test 394.5 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Aluminium trading range for the day is 371.1-394.5.

* Aluminium rose as the Middle East conflict disrupts both exports of metal by Gulf producers and imports of their raw materials.

* CRU sees aluminium prices above $4,000/t in Q3 2026 – Q2 2027

* CRU sees a global aluminium market deficit of 1.4 million tons this year.

Turmeric

Turmeric prices settled marginally lower by 0.18% at 15,906 amid higher arrivals in major producing mandis and continued profit-booking by traders and farmers. Daily arrivals across key markets including Nizamabad, Erode, and Hingoli increased significantly, creating temporary supply pressure in local mandis. Farmers accelerated stock liquidation to generate liquidity ahead of the upcoming Kharif sowing season, while increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric resulted in aggressive discounting for average-quality produce. Lingering tensions in the Middle East also continued to disrupt export logistics, prompting some overseas buyers to delay fresh commitments. However, downside in turmeric prices remained limited due to tighter availability of premium-quality stocks. Arrivals in key mandis across Maharashtra and Telangana remained below normal for the peak arrival season, while moisture-related crop damage and rhizome rot issues in low-lying fields reduced the supply of high-quality “Double Polished” turmeric. Farmers and stockists in Sangli and Nizamabad are reportedly holding back stocks in anticipation of prices moving above Rs18,000 per quintal. Premium “Salem Fali” varieties continue to command prices near Rs20,000 per quintal in major markets. Fundamental sentiment also remained supportive after the Union Agriculture Ministry revised turmeric production estimates lower to 1.140 million tons. Carry-forward stocks are estimated near 15 lakh bags, sharply lower than last season’s 20 lakh bags, tightening overall market availability. Export demand remained stable, with turmeric exports during April-February 2026 rising 1% year-on-year to 163,336 tonnes, while imports declined 40% during the same period. Technically, the market is under fresh selling as open interest increased by 4.33% to settle at 17,110 while prices declined by 28 rupees. Turmeric is getting support at 15,802, below which prices could test 15,696 levels, while resistance is seen at 16,062, with a move above likely to test 16,216 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Turmeric trading range for the day is 15696-16216.

* Turmeric fell as daily arrivals have accelerated, creating a temporary "supply glut".

* Farmers are liquidating stocks more rapidly this week to raise liquidity for upcoming Kharif sowing expenses, increasing the immediate supply.

* Increased arrivals of late-harvested, high-moisture turmeric have led to aggressive price discounting for "average" quality lots.

* In Nizamabad, a major spot market, the price ended at 15564.25 Rupees dropped by -0.26 percent.

Jeera

Jeera prices settled higher by 1% at 20,155 amid concerns over lower availability of premium-quality supplies following adverse weather conditions in Rajasthan. Recent thunderstorms and hailstorms during the harvest stage damaged standing crops, raising fears of reduced “A-grade” quality supplies in the market. In addition, unseasonal rainfall across North-West India delayed drying and processing activities for the new crop, resulting in a temporary supply gap. Market sentiment remained supported as carry-forward stocks of high-quality “Sortex” grade jeera are reportedly lower compared to last year, sustaining premium pricing in key trading centers. However, upside in prices remained limited due to increasing arrivals of fresh crop from major producing regions in Rajasthan. Favorable harvesting conditions in recent weeks allowed farmers to complete harvesting activities at a faster pace, leading to a sudden supply surge rather than a staggered arrival pattern. Farmers are also actively selling stocks to raise liquidity ahead of the Kharif sowing season, maintaining pressure on the market. Daily arrivals at Unjha mandi remained elevated at around 28,500 bags, reflecting abundant near-term supplies. Fundamentally, production concerns continue to support the broader outlook. Gujarat’s jeera production is estimated to decline nearly 27% this season due to lower acreage and weak yields, while blight disease in several producing pockets further affected crop quality and output. Total domestic production is estimated at around 90–92 lakh bags compared to 1.10 crore bags last year. Market sentiment also remained positive on expectations of increased Chinese buying interest in the coming months. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased sharply by 17.4% to settle at 8,766 while prices gained 200 rupees. Jeera is now getting support at 19,970, below which prices could test 19,770 levels, while resistance is seen at 20,320, with a move above likely to test 20,470 levels.

Trading Ideas:

* Jeera trading range for the day is 19770-20470.

* Jeera gains as recent thunderstorms and hail in Rajasthan have damaged the crop, fears of lower "A-grade" supply.

* Sudden unseasonal rains in North-West India delayed the drying and processing of the new crop, creating a temporary supply gap.

* While stocks exist, the percentage of high-quality "Sortex" grade carryover is lower than last year, supporting premium pricing.

* In Unjha, a major spot market, the price ended at 20184.4 Rupees dropped by -0.05 percent.

Views express by all participants are for information & academic purpose only. Kindly read disclaimer before referring below views