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Gold

Gold staged a powerful late-week rally as geopolitical tensions and monetary policy signals converged. The spark came after Germany and France pushed for secondary sanctions on nations aiding Russia's war, a move widely seen as aimed at buyers of discounted Russian crude such as China and India Earlier in the week, the U.S. added fuel to the fire by slapping a steep 50% tariff on India's Russian oil purchases On the macro side, July's U.S. PCE inflation data showed consumer spending rising 0.3% in line with forecasts, reinforcing bets on a September Fed rate cut. Bullion remained well bid after Jerome Powell's dovish Jackson Hole remarks, while President Trump's repeated attacks on Fed officials, part of his bid to influence central bank policy, kept the dollar subdued, amplifying gold's upside momentum.

Gold price has continued its positive momentum and made a new all-time high in past week 104,090 and settled at 103,780 in past week, Gold has surged for 2nd consecutive month, up by +5% in August. Price has remained to trade in Rising channel sustaining over its key moving averages ie. 50, 100 and 200-DEMA levels placed at 99098, 96410 and 90962 respectively. Daily SAR is placed at 98720, Price has also breakthrough neckline resistance of Rounding bottom on Daily chart, Looking at Ol, we can observe a rise in Ol levels to 16770 lots along withrecent price-rise which signifies strength in a bullish momentum of Gold

The overall trend in Gold price is expected to be Sideways-to-bullish in the coming week, and traders should keep an eye on key US economic data such as Services PMI and Employment data such as Job opening, Avg. hourly earnings, Non-farm employment change. Unemployment rate & Unemployment claims which are scheduled to be in next week

Silver

Silver mirrored gold's trajectory but outperformed thanks to its higher beta and dual role as both a safe-haven and industrial metal Investors sought shelter amid dollar weakness, escalating tariff uncertainty, and geopolitical risk, sending silver sharply higher and cementing its place as the week's standout performer.

Comex Silver rebounded after finding support at $3808 strongly mid-week and managed to close on a firm note at $39,69, marking a fresh high in recent months as Bullions shines strongly this week.

MCX Silver November contract witnessed a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern during the previous week's closing session. The price action retested the breakout trendline mid-week, finding support at 114,900 near the 20-DEMA, and thereafter regained momentum to surge by +4.96% and closing the week at 120.371 This confirms sustained bullish undertone in the market. Daily RSI at 71 entering into overbought territory can risk of shallow pullbacks, but not a reversal signal yet, Traders should adopt a scale-in on dips approach near support zones All Key moving average support prices in long and short term both

Gold/Silver ratio which is also known as mint ratio, also remain weak after reversing from 88 level, if trailed below 85.7 will more favorable for silver prices for up move.

Overall, Silver maintains a Bullish trend for the upcoming sessions Traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, with pullbacks towards the 116,700-114,900 support zone offering fresh long opportunities. Resistance is seen near 122,500, with potential to scale higher if momentum sustains.

Copper

Copper prices found near-term support from supply-side jitters, including uncertainty around Panama's Cobre mine, tightening Chinese inventories, and prospects of production adjustments Still, gains were capped by persistent concerns over fragile global demand growth, leaving the red metal in a tight range.

MCX Copper September contract has breakthrough its bearish trend line on Daily chart in recent sessions and surged by +2.28% in previous week, managed to close at 900.70. Copper price has continued to trade over its all key moving averages ie. 50, 100 and 200-DEMA levels placed at 884.40, 877.10 and 86220 respectively. Daily SAR is placed at 866 Key resistance is at 905.90 and breakout of this level will accelerate upside momentum in Copper price in upcoming sessions,

Open Interest (OI) has held steady at 6,840 lots despite recent price volatility, indicating strength and continued buying interest on dips. Both the daily and weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) are above 60. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover below the zero line with positive histograms Together, these indicators suggest a bullish outlook for Copper.

We are expecting Moderately Bullish trend in Copper price in upcoming sessions and traders may go for buy-on-dips opportunity in any pullbacks towards support levels

Nickel

Nickel prices found some support as Indonesia pushed ahead with a new processing hub and scrapped benchmark pricing rules, signaling structural shifts in the EV supply chain, though global oversupply and weak demand kept gains in check

LME Nickel 3-month future has marginally rebounded from the dips in past week, having surged by +2.62% and closed at $15350/tonne. Nickel price has sustained over the support of $14877 and reclaimed over 50-DEMA level placed at $15177. Daily SAR is currently placed at $14877. A crucial resistance would be at $15610 and breakout of this level will accelerate upside momentum in Nickel in upcoming sessions.

The September contract for MCX Nickel has also started on a positive note. We've seen significant trader participation, with volumes near 600 lots and open interest (Ol) at 57 lots in August. Nickel prices have increased by nearly 189% in the past month, recording two consecutive positive weeks and settling at 1338 The key support is at the daily SAR level of 1311 while 135250 will serve as a crucial resistance point.

We are expecting Sideways-to-Bullish trend in Nickel price in upcoming sessions and traders may go for buy-on-dips opportunity in any pullbacks towards support levels

Crude oil

Crude oil is drawing near-term support from tighter U.S. inventories, stronger diesel demand, refinery maintenance, and a softer dollar, while hopes of a US.-China trade truce extension could lend additional demand strength, US, refiners are already cutting runs for seasonal maintenance, reducing fuel output, even as crude stocks fell more than expected. With diesel consumption rising ahead of harvest and winter, supply tightness may cushion prices in the short run However, the medium- to long-term outlook stays cautious, as expanding OPEC+ and non-OPEC output against muted demand growth raises oversupply risks into late 2025 and 2026

WTI Crude Oil rebound from the $61.40 support level and closed at $64. Surged by +2% in start of the week. Key resistance hurdles remain just above current levels, with 50-DEMA at $64.90, 100-DEMA at $65.63, and 200-DEMA at $67.35. The ability to sustain above these levels will determine the strength of the ongoing rebound.

The MCX Crude Oil September contract witnessed a strong recovery after dipping to 5400, bouncing from a crucial support zone. Prices staged move to close the week at 5654, marking the formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe. On the daily chart, price action has also broken out of a falling wedge formation, signaling the possibility of a trend reversal

Currently, prices are retracing from the 618% Fibonacci level (5550), which coincides with the 200-DEMA at 5556 acting as a strong support base. With prices closing above the 20, 50, 100, and 200-DEMA levels placed from 5610 to 5555 the trend suggests a continuation of bullish momentum in the near term. RSI stands at 52, trending upward, suggesting neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Open Interest (Ol) indicates short covering, supported by increasing buying volume. The moving averages cluster below price levels, confirming strengthening momentum.

From a technical perspective, sustaining above 5710 zone will further strengthen the uptrend, while a decisive move above 5800 will confirm broader bullish breakout. Sideways-to-Bullish momentum is expected for the coming sessions, and traders may look for buy-on-dips opportunities with support near 5550-5460 and resistance around 5710-5800

Natural gas

Natural gas prices rallied as hotter weather forecasts boosted cooling demand and LNG exports climbed to fresh highs Still, ample storage levels and steady production temper the outlook, suggesting that upside may be constrained once weather-driven demand fades.

MCX Natural Gas prices witnessed a sharp +10% recovery this week, breaking away from the long-term bearish trend A strong weekly bullish Marubozu candlestick, coupled with an engulfing breakout above 265, along confirmed the breakout from the falling wedge channel, signaling a short-term reversal within the broader bearish structure.

On the international front, NYMEX Natural Gas also showed signs of strength, forming a weekly engulfing candlestick supported by higher buying volumes. The contract closed at $3.0695, and more importantly, registered a 20-200 weekly EMA crossover, suggesting the potential end of the prolonged bearish phase.

For MCX, the September contract closed at 264, marginally above the 20 DEMA placed at 262. The breakout from the falling wedge pattern has opened the path for recovery toward higher moving averages placed at 285 (50-DEMA), 310 (100-DEMA), and 3265 (200-DEMA) The RSI has risen to 47.8, bouncing back from oversold zones and showing momentum recovery. Price gains have also been supported by higher buying volume, though the recent 11,000-lot decline in open interest indicates short-covering was a driver of the rally.

The short-term trend has turned positive after the wedge breakout, supported by improving momentum and a bullish crossover structure. Prices are expected to regain strength, and a buy-on-dips approach is advisable while the broader market tests higher resistance levels

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