Commodity Weekly Insights 14 July 2025 Axis Securities
The Week That Was
• Gold prices ended the week nearly 1% higher, rising for a third consecutive session on Friday. The gains were driven by safe-haven demand following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. He also signalled plans to impose blanket tariffs of 15–20% on most other trade partners. Escalating trade tensions have renewed concerns about an economic slowdown, boosting gold’s appeal. Traders now await upcoming inflation data for further direction on gold's movement.
• Silver prices surged above $38 per ounce on Friday, hitting their highest level in over 14 years amid rising global trade tensions. The rally followed U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting on 1 st August. Heightened geopolitical risks boosted safe-haven demand, supporting silver’s gains. However, a stronger U.S. dollar capped further upside. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
• Oil futures ended higher for a second straight week, brushing off concerns over rising OPEC+ output and a second consecutive build in U.S. crude inventories. Markets also absorbed renewed U.S. tariff tensions without major disruption. Support came from ongoing uncertainty around Russia sanctions and its pledge to offset excess production. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to underpin prices.
• London copper prices declined as markets reacted to President Trump’s surprise 50% tariff on copper imports. LME threemonth futures fell 0.6% to $9,629 per metric ton, down 3.2% for the week. The steep tariff is expected to dampen previously strong U.S. import demand. However, analysts question its economic logic and see a potential reversal ahead.
MCX Gold
Technical Outlook:
MCX Gold found strong support near the Rs 95,000 level, failing to move lower and reversing sharply from that zone. The price rebound coincided with a test of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reinforcing the strength of the support. As long as prices remain above the 50-day SMA, the near-term bias stays positive. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at Rs 99,000. A decisive breakout above this level could open the path toward Rs 1,02,000 and Rs 1,04,000 in the coming sessions.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Gold around Rs 97,000, with a stoploss below Rs 95,000 and targets of Rs 1,00,000 and Rs 1,02,000.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 97,800.
MCX Silver
Technical Outlook:
MCX Silver surged over 5% last week, breaking out of a fiveweek consolidation phase and closing at historically high levels. The breakout indicates a shift in momentum, with the price now forming higher highs and higher lows—a classic sign of a bullish trend. In the coming sessions, the upside may extend towards Rs 1,17,000–Rs 1,20,000. On the downside, strong support is seen at Rs 1,07,000. A sustained break below this level could trigger further weakness toward Rs 1,04,000 and Rs 1,02,000.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Silver around Rs 1,10,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 1,07,000 and targets of Rs 1,14,000 and Rs 1,17,000.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 1,13,000
MCX Crude
Technical Outlook:
MCX Crude Oil witnessed high volatility last week but managed to close with gains of over 3%. A bullish crossover on the weekly MACD indicates strengthening upward momentum, suggesting that any pullback could present a buying opportunity. On the daily chart, the price found support at the 50-day SMA and rebounded. Looking ahead, resistance is seen near Rs 6,000; a breakout above this level may lead to further upside toward Rs 6,300 and Rs 6,500. On the downside, strong support is placed at Rs 5,500. A breakdown below this level could push prices lower toward Rs 5,200 and Rs 5,000.
Recommendation:
We recommend buying MCX Crude Oil above Rs 6,000, with a stop-loss below Rs 5,750 and targets of Rs 6,300 and Rs 6,500.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 5,880.
MCX Copper
Technical Outlook:
MCX Copper declined by 1% last week, marking the first weekly loss after nine consecutive weeks of gains. This signals a shift in momentum from bullish to mildly bearish. The daily MACD has issued a negative crossover, indicating growing weakness in the trend. However, strong support lies near Rs 870, aligned with the 50-day SMA. A breakdown below this level could extend the decline toward Rs 840 and Rs 830. On the upside, Rs 906 remains a key resistance level; only a sustained move above it would signal a return to bullish momentum.
Recommendation:
We recommend selling MCX Copper below Rs 870, with a stoploss above Rs 890 and targets of Rs 840 and Rs 830.
Current market price (CMP): Rs 884.
For More Axis Securities Disclaimer https://simplehai.axisdirect.in/disclaimer-home
SEBI Registration number is INZ000161633
