US fiscal concerns drive dollar down, to propel rupee higher
The Indian rupee is likely to open higher on Thursday, supported by the strength in Asian peers, with investors shying away from the dollar due to U.S. fiscal concerns.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated a open in the 85.55 to 85.58 range, versus 85.6375 in the previous session. The offshore Chinese yuan rose past 7.1950 to the U.S. dollar, the Indonesian rupiah rallied 0.6% and the Malaysian ringgit and the Taiwanese dollar were both up 0.4%.
Based on recent price action, it’s more likely than not that the rupee will remain rangebound after the open, said a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank.
"I am currently playing the 85.30 to 85.80 band, looking to fade moves on either side.”
The Indian rupee has struggled to benefit from the dollar’s broader weakness against Asian peers, an outcome that has surprised bankers.
The dollar index dipped below 99.50 while Treasury yields climbed and equities sold off — a combination suggesting that American assets were out of favour with investors.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped nearly 12 basis points on Wednesday to hit 4.60%, while the 30-year climbed past the 5% handle.
Soft demand at the 20-year auction triggered a selloff in Treasuries, highlighting investor concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook. U.S. lawmakers are wrangling over a tax and spending that estimates put the costs $3.8–4.5 trillion over a decade.
The U.S. House of Representatives Rules Committee voted to advance President Donald Trump's sweeping tax-cut, setting the stage for a vote on the House floor.
"We think that the first pain point (30-year yields > 5%) has been breached and it is another warning from bonds that fiscal deficit is the key focal point (US tariff worries have gone into the backburner)," DBS Bank said in a note.
"The other two market markers to watch would be if 10Y breach 5% and / or swap spreads blow out again."
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.68; onshore one-month forward premium at 13.25 paise
** Dollar index down at 99.48
** Brent crude futures down 0.1% at $64.8 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.59%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $1,175 mln worth of Indian shares on May 20
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $7.5 mln worth of Indian bonds on May 20
