Commodity Research - Morning Insight - 20 Nov 2025 by Kotak Securities
Bullion – Spot gold posted a second consecutive gain on Wednesday, settling at $4,078/oz after a sharp intraday pullback from $4,132 to $4,055 amid a firmer US dollar. Silver advanced over 1% to roughly $51.40. The dollar rallied to over 100, a two-week high after the BLS canceled the October jobs report, tempering rate-cut expectations. Earlier in the session, safe-haven flows supported bullion on concerns that Japan’s potential stimulus could deepen its debt burden, with the BOJ unlikely to raise rates again before March. Fed October minutes revealed a divided committee, pushing near-term cut odds down to 32% from 63% last week. Today, gold eased to $4,040 as dovish expectations faded but recovered steadily, underscoring resilient haven demand despite broader risk-on sentiment. Market attention now turns to the September NFP, forecast at 50K jobs with unemployment rate at 4.3% along with Unemployment claims and existing home sales.
Crude Oil – WTI crude oil prices closed 2% lower on Wednesday and slipped to $58.8/bbl weighed down by easing geopolitical risks and a mixed inventory report. Reports suggested that the Trump administration and Russia have been secretly working on a draft peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. Besides, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels for the week ending November 14, while gasoline and distillate stocks rose by 2.3 million and 0.2 million barrels, respectively. The decline in crude stocks was partly driven by stronger exports, which increased by 1.3 million barrels per day to 4.2 million barrels per day. Today, oil prices edged higher to $59.8/bbl as traders braced for looming U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers and exporters.
Natural Gas – Nymex Henry Hub natural gas jumped more than 4% to close above $4.5/mmBtu, supported by a shift toward colder weather projections for late November and early December.
Base metals – Base metals ended Wednesday on a mixed note, with zinc the only laggard, slipping to $2,981/ton. Copper inched higher, though gains were limited as investors remained cautious ahead of the delayed U.S. September nonfarm report. Supply concerns continued to provide a floor for copper, following global mine disruptions and updates from Freeport-McMoRan, which confirmed Grasberg output is expected to normalize by 2026. On the demand side, sentiment remains fragile as China’s peak manufacturing season winds down. Fabricator run rates have fallen to multiyear lows, highlighting how quickly demand can weaken after prices surged to record levels last month. Base metals are likely to trade range-bound, with a stronger U.S. dollar capping upside, while support from improved sentiment after Chile’s Cochilco raised its price outlook on expectations of lower interest rates.
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