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Bullion –

Comex Gold August futures fell 0.41% on Thursday, hitting a 1-week low, while silver settled 0.48% higher. Gold prices weigh down by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, including upbeat June retail sales and a drop in initial jobless claims to a threemonth low, reducing urgency for a Fed rate cut. The U.S. dollar rallied to a 3.5-week high, further weighing on metals. Fed Governor Kugler emphasized the need for steady policy, while San Francisco Fed President Daly highlighted persistent inflation concerns. Despite this, gold rebounded on escalating global trade tensions as Trump announced plans to issue tariff letters to over 150 countries, proposing 10–15% tariffs effective August 1. Additionally, rising fund flows into gold-backed ETFs continue to lend support. Today, gold trading steady above $3,340 as markets now await further Fed commentary and the UoM Consumer Sentiment report.

Crude Oil –

WTI crude oil prices gained momentum on Thursday, closing near the session high of $67.69/bbl, driven by supply disruption concerns following drone attacks on oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan. The attacks have reportedly cut output in the semiautonomous region by 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, over half of its typical production of around 280,000 bpd while seasonal peak demand in the Northern Hemisphere is signaling near-term supply tightness. However, gains were capped by a stronger U.S. dollar and a mixed U.S. inventory report. Today, prices hold gains and trade near $67.5/bbl on risk-on sentiment as stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and jobs data underscore economic resilience.

Natural Gas -

NYMEX Gas futures slipped marginally to $3.51/mmBtu yesterday, amid a slightly higher than expected inventory build. However, prices closed above $3.54/mmBtu cushioned by above normal temperature forecasts for the July 22-26 period.

Base metals –

LME base metals traded on a mixed note on Thursday, with copper and zinc extending gains amid supportive macroeconomic cues and expectations of increased buying interest from China. Zinc outperformed its peers, while copper held firm near $9,666.50/ton, supported by stronger-than-expected US retail sales and a drop in jobless claims. In China, some fabricators stepped in to restock inventories after the recent price dip, despite August typically being a relatively slow season for demand. Meanwhile, BHP’s latest production update revealed a record 28% jump in copper output for FY24, driven by a 17-year high at Escondida, adding to the global supply narrative. Aluminium posted only marginal gains as evidence of softer demand weighed on sentiment. LME metals trade higher today buoyed by recent positive US data and expectations of stronger Chinese buying, though persistent dollar strength continues to cast a shadow over the market.

GOLD

SILVER

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