Coffee Prices Surge to Record Highs as Brazil Farmers Hold Back by Amit Gupta, Kedia Advisory
Global arabica coffee prices soared to new record highs on Monday, with Brazilian farmers reluctant to sell their 2025/26 crop. Their hesitation stems from uncertainty about the upcoming crop due to lingering drought effects and hopes for higher prices. Data revealed that only 12% of Brazil’s 2025/26 crop has been sold so far, below the usual average of 21%. Prices hit $3.5555 per lb, a 10% gain this year. A strengthening Brazilian real is also discouraging exports, contributing further to price volatility. While some traders expect the Brazilian crop to improve due to recent rains, concerns over crop vitality persist.
Key Highlights
* Arabica coffee prices hit a record high of $3.5555 per lb.
* Brazil's forward sales of 2025/26 coffee lag behind the average.
* Severe drought last year impacted coffee crop expectations.
* Recent rains raise hopes for improved crop yields in Brazil.
* A strengthening Brazilian real discourages coffee exports.
Arabica coffee prices surged to an all-time high on Monday, reaching $3.5555 per lb, as traders continue to factor in uncertainties surrounding Brazil’s coffee crop. The world’s top coffee producer has experienced a significant slowdown in forward sales of its 2025/26 crop, with only 12% sold, well below the typical pace of 21% for this time of year. This hesitation is largely attributed to concerns over last year’s severe drought, which has left many coffee trees lacking the vitality needed for a strong yield.
However, some traders believe that recent rains in Brazil's coffee-growing regions could improve crop prospects, bringing renewed optimism for better yields. Despite this, certified arabica stocks fell significantly, which further supported the price rise. The strengthening of the Brazilian real has also made it more expensive for local farmers to export coffee, reducing their incentive to sell at current dollar-based prices.
Meanwhile, robusta coffee futures fell 1.5% to $5,460 per metric ton, reflecting weaker global demand. In other soft commodities, raw sugar and white sugar saw gains, while cocoa prices faced declines, highlighting the varying trends across commodity markets.
Finally
With prices at record levels and uncertainties over Brazil’s crop, the coffee market remains highly volatile. The interplay of weather patterns and the economic landscape will continue to influence future trends.
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