Perspective on Gold 22 July 2025 by Ms. Riya Singh - Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency , Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
Below The Perspective on Gold 22 July 2025 by Ms. Riya Singh - Research Analyst, Commodities and Currency , Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd
“Gold prices remained firm above $3,350/oz last week, reflecting a cautious yet supportive macro backdrop shaped by dovish commentary from key Federal Reserve officials, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and tariff-driven inflation concerns. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his preference for a July rate cut to cushion economic risks, reinforcing expectations of 45 basis points of easing by year-end, even though the upcoming July 30 FOMC meeting is largely expected to result in a hold. Waller’s comments drove US Treasury yields and the dollar index lower, supporting gold, which benefits in a lower rate environment. Simultaneously, rumours about President Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Powell, though later denied, added a layer of political risk, amplifying safe-haven demand. Globally, anxiety remained elevated as the US maintained its August 1 tariff deadline while the EU responded with restraint, and trade negotiations with key partners such as China and India remained unresolved. These factors have kept safe-haven flows resilient, with the World Gold Council reporting a 26% YTD rally and projecting a further 0–5% upside under base case scenarios, or 10–15% if stagflationary or recessionary conditions materialize. Notably, the latest CFTC COT data shows money managers’ net long positions in COMEX gold rising to around 600 tonnes, signaling growing speculative interest, though still well below crisis-era peaks of 1,200 tonnes indicating capacity for further build up should risk sentiment deteriorate. ETF inflows and steady central bank buying continue to underpin the broader bullish narrative, while the US dollar’s worst start to a year since 1973 remains a tailwind. On the domestic front, MCX gold futures hovered around Rs.97400 per 10 grams, with strong support at Rs.96500 95900 and resistance near Rs.99800. In the week ahead, traders will closely monitor Fed Chair Powell’s speech, China’s loan prime rate decision, and key US macro releases including PMI and durable goods orders, which could shift interest rate expectations and determine the next directional impulse for gold globally and on MCX.”
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