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China’s Soybean Imports Surge Toward Record Annual High

China’s soybean imports hit 8.11 million tons in November, the highest for the month since 2021, driven by strong buying from Brazil and renewed purchases from the United States. Cumulative imports for the first eleven months rose 6.9% to 103.79 million tons, with analysts expecting full-year volumes to exceed 110–112 million tons—marking a record. Despite strong inflows, November arrivals were slightly below expectations and lower than October due to high domestic inventories, which are pressuring prices. Following easing trade tensions, China resumed U.S. purchases, with COFCO booking 2.7 million tons since late October, though still below U.S. targets.

Key Highlights

*  China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans in November, up 13.4% YoY.

* January–November imports rose 6.9% to 103.79 million tons.

* 2025 imports to exceed 110–112 million tons—an all-time high.

* Domestic crushers hold high inventories, adding downward pressure on prices.

* China resumed U.S. soybean buying post-talks, booking 2.7 million tons recently.

China’s soybean imports surged to 8.11 million metric tons in November, marking the highest volume for the month since 2021, according to data compiled from Chinese customs. The year-on-year rise of 13.4% reflects strong commercial buying from South America and a renewed flow of shipments from the United States as trade tensions eased. However, November arrivals were 14.5% lower than October and slightly below market expectations due to elevated soybean and meal inventories at domestic crushers, which have added selling pressure.

In the first eleven months of the year, China imported 103.79 million tons of soybeans, up 6.9% from last year. The full-year tally expected to reach a record 110–112 million tons, supported by aggressive procurement from Brazil and improving U.S.–China trade conditions. China’s imports had already set monthly records from May to October, as buyers front-loaded South American shipments in anticipation of prolonged trade risks with Washington—a move that later contributed to temporary oversupply in the domestic market.

Following high-level talks between U.S. and Chinese leaders in South Korea in late October, China resumed significant purchases of American soybeans. State-run COFCO led the buying, securing around 2.7 million tons since the meeting, U.S. Department of Agriculture data showed. Although this is still below Washington’s year-end target of 12 million tons, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the deadline may be extended to February, keeping export prospects alive.

With December imports estimated at 8.6 million tons, China is on track to set a new record for annual soybean arrivals, reaffirming its dominance as the world’s largest buyer amid shifting trade dynamics.

Finally, China’s soybean imports remain on a record-setting path, supported by strong global sourcing and easing U.S. trade tensions, though high inventories may temper near-term demand momentum.

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